a places collection · custom geography · 2020 → 2024
Fast-growing suburbs that trended toward Harris
Fast-growing U.S. suburbs that each bucked 2024’s rightward tide and moved toward Harris — powered by new residents filling new subdivisions, not by incumbents changing their minds.
combined 2024 margin across 64 members — still net-Republican, but moving left against the national tide
Electorate up ≥25% — the most inclusive cut.
- member suburbs
- 64
- combined 2024 margin
- R+13.9
- swing toward Harris
- +4.9
- 2024 votes
- 464,951
- total population
- 895,986
- aggregate white share
- 70.1%
- bachelor's+ (aggregate)
- 42.3%
- median income
- $41k–$250k
The members
| Suburb | County | 2020 | 2024 | Swing → Harris | Vote growth | Median inc | White | Hispanic | Population |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa Colony TX | Brazoria County | D+3.3 | D+27.7 | +24.4 | +68% | $144k | 28.4% | 20.2% | 12,891 |
| Sonterra TX | Williamson County | R+31.2 | R+17.9 | +13.3 | +44% | $92k | 53.0% | 38.0% | 10,563 |
| Aubrey TX | Denton County | R+36.4 | R+25.3 | +11.1 | +40% | $102k | 63.6% | 13.3% | 7,396 |
| Oak Hills Place LA | East Baton Rouge Parish | R+30.6 | R+20.2 | +10.4 | +38% | $92k | 69.5% | 5.0% | 9,038 |
| Dayton MN | Hennepin County | R+6.3 | D+3.6 | +9.9 | +46% | $149k | 77.4% | 5.8% | 9,095 |
| Cave Springs AR | Benton County | R+37.4 | R+28.1 | +9.4 | +27% | $146k | 68.4% | 6.6% | 6,008 |
| Crozet VA | Albemarle County | D+24.9 | D+34.1 | +9.2 | +30% | $129k | 88.0% | 5.0% | 9,289 |
| Tehaleh WA | Pierce County | D+8.7 | D+17.2 | +8.5 | +54% | $156k | 70.0% | 7.9% | 9,561 |
| Black Diamond WA | King County | R+4.0 | D+3.9 | +7.9 | +28% | $141k | 67.8% | 7.9% | 5,961 |
| Providence Village TX | Denton County | R+11.4 | R+3.7 | +7.7 | +31% | $110k | 63.3% | 18.9% | 8,721 |
| Ridgefield WA | Clark County | R+0.7 | D+7.0 | +7.7 | +40% | $116k | 80.1% | 10.3% | 13,408 |
| Silver Lake NC | New Hanover County | R+15.7 | R+8.1 | +7.6 | +38% | $77k | 72.3% | 20.6% | 6,563 |
| McLean VA | Fairfax County | D+29.7 | D+37.3 | +7.6 | +47% | $250k | 65.9% | 6.3% | 49,627 |
| Elmwood LA | Jefferson Parish | D+2.7 | D+9.7 | +7.1 | +36% | $89k | 45.0% | 14.7% | 6,077 |
| Travis Ranch TX | Kaufman County | R+6.0 | D+0.9 | +6.9 | +66% | $84k | 38.1% | 23.8% | 9,025 |
| Abingdon VA | Washington County | R+38.1 | R+31.3 | +6.8 | +52% | $55k | 91.1% | 1.8% | 8,330 |
| Parkville MO | Platte County | R+4.1 | D+2.6 | +6.7 | +35% | $171k | 80.8% | 10.2% | 8,366 |
| Timnath CO | Larimer County | R+6.2 | D+0.5 | +6.6 | +45% | $178k | 86.8% | 5.6% | 8,941 |
| Piedmont OK | Canadian County | R+55.2 | R+49.0 | +6.2 | +25% | $104k | 75.1% | 13.7% | 8,342 |
| Heartland TX | Kaufman County | D+15.7 | D+21.9 | +6.1 | +56% | $93k | 29.7% | 32.2% | 10,607 |
| Conning Towers-Nautilus Park CT | Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region | D+17.6 | D+23.6 | +6.0 | +63% | $82k | 68.8% | 19.1% | 8,460 |
| Pea Ridge AR | Benton County | R+54.3 | R+48.4 | +5.9 | +43% | $96k | 65.4% | 13.2% | 8,108 |
| Massanetta Springs VA | Rockingham County | R+9.2 | R+3.4 | +5.8 | +79% | $115k | 82.4% | 7.4% | 6,358 |
| Lavon TX | Collin County | R+38.1 | R+32.7 | +5.4 | +52% | $131k | 61.1% | 20.7% | 6,498 |
| Angier NC | Wake County | R+22.5 | R+17.5 | +5.0 | +28% | $52k | 59.6% | 17.2% | 6,241 |
| Justin TX | Denton County | R+58.6 | R+54.0 | +4.6 | +38% | $114k | 64.7% | 27.0% | 5,447 |
| Dunn Loring VA | Fairfax County | D+39.0 | D+43.6 | +4.6 | +30% | $244k | 59.3% | 6.9% | 8,957 |
| Bridgewater VA | Rockingham County | R+17.3 | R+12.8 | +4.5 | +34% | $75k | 84.9% | 8.2% | 6,708 |
| Black Mountain NC | Buncombe County | D+22.0 | D+26.5 | +4.5 | +29% | $77k | 89.9% | 1.5% | 8,513 |
| Manvel TX | Brazoria County | D+3.0 | D+7.3 | +4.3 | +29% | $119k | 38.2% | 20.1% | 14,758 |
| Spotsylvania Courthouse VA | Spotsylvania County | R+15.7 | R+11.5 | +4.2 | +29% | $95k | 71.3% | 12.5% | 7,180 |
| Van Alstyne TX | Collin County | R+59.8 | R+55.7 | +4.1 | +42% | $102k | 77.1% | 23.1% | 5,952 |
| Oakton VA | Fairfax County | D+34.3 | D+38.3 | +4.0 | +40% | $161k | 57.3% | 10.7% | 36,528 |
| Saratoga Springs UT | Utah County | R+45.3 | R+41.5 | +3.8 | +31% | $129k | 81.8% | 14.2% | 48,425 |
| Oakwood GA | Hall County | R+24.5 | R+20.9 | +3.6 | +29% | $68k | 56.4% | 29.3% | 5,862 |
| Asbury Lake FL | Clay County | R+55.0 | R+51.4 | +3.6 | +34% | $101k | 82.1% | 7.1% | 14,458 |
| Midlothian VA | Chesterfield County | D+2.7 | D+6.2 | +3.5 | +28% | $110k | 70.3% | 4.6% | 19,120 |
| Royse City TX | Collin County | R+45.5 | R+42.1 | +3.5 | +40% | $117k | 66.6% | 27.0% | 20,037 |
| Josephine TX | Collin County | R+53.8 | R+50.4 | +3.4 | +92% | $91k | 70.3% | 22.9% | 5,842 |
| Mapleton UT | Utah County | R+58.1 | R+55.0 | +3.1 | +25% | $133k | 91.2% | 3.1% | 13,114 |
| Prairieville LA | Ascension Parish | R+49.2 | R+46.1 | +3.1 | +31% | $105k | 74.7% | 6.1% | 35,238 |
| Rincon Valley AZ | Pima County | R+20.9 | R+18.2 | +2.7 | +33% | $132k | 70.2% | 25.1% | 6,512 |
| Santaquin UT | Utah County | R+68.4 | R+65.7 | +2.7 | +28% | $100k | 84.8% | 13.2% | 16,436 |
| Riverton UT | Salt Lake County | R+35.4 | R+33.1 | +2.3 | +26% | $127k | 84.4% | 10.5% | 45,457 |
| West Haven UT | Weber County | R+42.8 | R+40.5 | +2.3 | +25% | $101k | 85.7% | 18.2% | 21,563 |
| Tontitown AR | Washington County | R+41.8 | R+39.6 | +2.2 | +38% | $86k | 75.0% | 6.3% | 6,425 |
| Severance CO | Weld County | R+35.4 | R+33.2 | +2.1 | +32% | $125k | 73.7% | 20.4% | 10,130 |
| Liberty Hill TX | Williamson County | R+38.7 | R+36.6 | +2.1 | +32% | $115k | 58.3% | 49.9% | 8,371 |
| Eagle Mountain UT | Utah County | R+49.8 | R+47.7 | +2.1 | +28% | $114k | 83.6% | 12.9% | 53,290 |
| Raymore MO | Cass County | R+15.1 | R+13.2 | +1.9 | +26% | $104k | 78.1% | 6.9% | 24,526 |
| Fulshear TX | Fort Bend County | R+30.8 | R+28.9 | +1.8 | +58% | $187k | 54.9% | 18.2% | 34,868 |
| Bulverde TX | Comal County | R+53.3 | R+51.6 | +1.7 | +42% | $112k | 76.6% | 22.7% | 6,486 |
| Leland NC | Brunswick County | R+8.7 | R+7.1 | +1.6 | +27% | $92k | 83.5% | 4.6% | 29,607 |
| Mont Belvieu TX | Liberty County | R+72.2 | R+70.6 | +1.5 | +31% | $133k | 76.6% | 17.3% | 9,020 |
| Marion VA | Smyth County | R+44.4 | R+42.9 | +1.5 | +26% | $41k | 86.4% | 4.3% | 5,670 |
| Northlake TX | Denton County | R+37.6 | R+36.2 | +1.4 | +77% | $123k | 61.4% | 15.7% | 8,283 |
| Cut Off LA | Lafourche Parish | R+82.0 | R+80.7 | +1.3 | +39% | $68k | 71.1% | 20.3% | 5,398 |
| Wrightsboro NC | New Hanover County | R+2.3 | R+1.1 | +1.2 | +26% | $78k | 62.7% | 6.2% | 6,287 |
| Fishersville VA | Augusta County | R+30.0 | R+29.1 | +1.0 | +37% | $84k | 82.5% | 7.2% | 9,484 |
| Lovejoy GA | Clayton County | D+72.7 | D+73.6 | +1.0 | +35% | $72k | 6.5% | 10.0% | 11,508 |
| Idylwood VA | Fairfax County | D+44.7 | D+45.6 | +0.9 | +36% | $120k | 47.4% | 20.0% | 17,559 |
| Anna TX | Collin County | R+28.0 | R+27.5 | +0.6 | +49% | $106k | 67.4% | 18.9% | 24,330 |
| Pasadena Hills FL | Pasco County | R+18.0 | R+17.8 | +0.2 | +37% | $85k | 62.8% | 18.9% | 13,505 |
| Covington LA | St. Tammany Parish | R+26.5 | R+26.3 | +0.2 | +41% | $76k | 73.6% | 5.7% | 11,658 |
How this collection was built
A city is included when it (1) trended toward Harris — a positive 2020→2024 margin swing, (2) had a fast-growing electorate — 2024 votes up by at least the tier threshold vs 2020, and (3) had a real electorate of ≥800 votes in 2024. Growth is measured by votes, a close proxy for new-rooftop population in these master-planned exurbs.
The aggregate margin and swing are computed from the members’ summed major-party votes, so margins add up exactly; modern city figures are precinct/block-group-disaggregated. Population and race/education shares are population-weighted (also exact). Income is shown as a range plus a population-weighted average of member medians — an approximation, never a manufactured “collection median.”
- Richfield, UTimplausible-growth(>120%)
- Kiryas Joel, NYnot-a-suburb (Hasidic religious village)
- Prairie View, TXnot-a-suburb (HBCU college town)
- Cusseta-Chattahoochee County unified government, GAmilitary-base
- Fort Stewart, GAmilitary-base
Elections: MIT Election Lab, precinct→block-group-disaggregated to place (2020, 2024). Demographics: Census ACS 2024 5-year. Swing = 2024 margin − 2020 margin, margin = (Dem − Rep) ÷ total votes; positive is a move toward Harris. Individual city margins are disaggregated estimates; the collection-level vote rollup is exact given those inputs.