- Lead
- 74,062
- Total
- 354,637
- vs nation
- R+19.4
Texas 38th Congressional District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 62,919
- Total
- 352,406
- vs nation
- R+22.3
- Lead
- 72,007
- Total
- 274,262
- vs nation
- R+28.3
- Lead
- 91,247
- Total
- 238,556
- vs nation
- R+42.1
- Lead
- 86,941
- Total
- 234,361
- vs nation
- R+44.4
- Lead
- 98,138
- Total
- 200,872
- vs nation
- R+46.4
- Lead
- 90,045
- Total
- 183,119
- vs nation
- R+49.7
- Lead
- 66,084
- Total
- 155,536
- vs nation
- R+51.0
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+20.9MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 767,2832024 5-year
- Population density
- 2,458 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 312 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $99,3952024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 48.9%2024 5-year
- Black
- 9.8%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 26.6%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+44.9 in 1936MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+60.6 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Congressional District 2, TX · twin score 98.2
presidential history
Party record book
Texas 38th Congressional District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 37 with a vote-share denominator · 33 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1936
72.5%
6,267 votes · D+44.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Woodrow Wilson, 1912 · 71.3%
Republican
Richard Nixon1972
80.3%
93,132 votes · R+60.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1956 · 79.4%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
142,303votes
40.4% of the vote · R+17.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 137,015 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
211,077votes
59.5% of the vote · R+20.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 205,222 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1944
+23.4pts D vs U.S.
Place D+30.9 · U.S. D+7.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Woodrow Wilson, 1912 · +23.0 pts
Republican
Bob Dole1996
+51.0pts R vs U.S.
Place R+42.5 · U.S. D+8.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · George W. Bush, 2000 · +49.7 pts
Current officeholders
Federal officeholders only. State and local officeholders are planned for the next data pass.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each result reflects the U.S. House district as it was drawn for that election; redistricting has redrawn these lines over time, so they can differ from the current 120th-Congress district shown on the map above.
| Year | District | Won | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 38 | R | 37.2%127,640 | 62.7%215,030 | 342,764 |
| 2022 | 38 | R | 35.5%92,302 | 63.0%163,597 | 259,869 |
Texas CD-38, anchored in the northwestern Houston suburbs, leans heavily toward Republican candidates across federal and state races, with its fast-growing exurban precincts contributing to some of the widest margins in the metro area.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 44.9 points in 1936 and a Republican high of 60.6 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 3.0 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 20.9 points.
A population of 767,283, a 49% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $99,395 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Congressional District 2 and Congressional District 24.
The congressional districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Texas 38th Congressional District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cd/4838/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.