akashic
1876–2024
Congressional District 15·California

California 15th Congressional District has voted Democratic in eleven straight presidential cycles.

One of California's most Democratic-leaning districts by presidential margin

1876 — 2024·38 elections
CA
Latest
D+55
in 2024
Archetype
Democratic loyalist
since the recent cycles
Population
280,676
2024 ACS

California 15th Congressional District, California: Democratic loyalist district. In 2024, voted D+55%. Democratic peak: D+64 in 2016.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin
D+55MIT Election Lab
Political archetype
Democratic loyalistAkashic typology
Population
280,6762024 5-year
Median household income
$152,9212024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
38.2%2024 5-year
Black
3.1%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
22.0%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin
D+64 in 2016MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin
R+44 in 1920MIT Election Lab
D
MULLIN, KevinCongress 119 · Democratic

Predecessors: SWALWELL, Eric (2021–2023), SWALWELL, Eric (2019–2021), SWALWELL, Eric (2017–2019), SWALWELL, Eric (2015–2017)

Source · Voteview / Lewis, Poole, Rosenthal et al. (CC-BY).

2024 results by constituent county
2 counties · 2 D · 0 R
R+60
D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
38 presidential elections
Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
D
+55.4%
97,69326,378128,720
D
+62.8%
116,06325,424144,306
D
+63.8%
98,80818,863125,254
D
+55.2%
85,91023,662112,768
D
+56.5%
92,43924,829119,676
D
+50.1%
83,29327,146112,065
D
+42.6%
69,22826,063101,406
D
+39.9%
62,00923,67396,121
D
+36.3%
63,86825,402106,000
D
+23.8%
58,48635,73795,409
D
+8.5%
52,57044,27498,037
R
−1.7%
37,00438,51388,785
R
−0.3%
40,99741,26287,363
R
−1.6%
46,89448,50098,938
D
+11.7%
46,82236,25090,659
D
+34.2%
61,50130,11691,710
D
+4.8%
46,72542,45989,484
R
−13.3%
34,22244,75579,206
R
−15.5%
31,59843,32475,548
R
−4.7%
27,45730,31861,134
D
+15.4%
32,13923,53555,934
D
+16.0%
28,35520,44049,371
D
+45.0%
28,85010,78840,145
D
+29.0%
21,00211,26533,595
R
−3.9%
13,30314,39428,087
R
−42.9%
1,29510,29720,979
R
−44.2%
4,15512,60019,120
D
+7.8%
9,9078,39219,360
O
+48.1%
6,311013,110
R
−21.9%
2,7174,4467,894
R
−34.1%
2,2375,0088,131
R
−16.9%
3,0594,3657,749
R
−2.6%
3,6873,8887,741
D
+10.2%
3,7373,0147,098
D
+4.4%
3,4673,1676,784
R
−9.2%
2,5683,1015,786
D
+5.2%
2,5902,3325,002
R
−2.6%
2,4642,5955,059
Congressional elections · 17 Senate races

U.S. Senate

Source · MIT Election Lab (MEDSL), Senate. CC-BY 4.0.
YearWonD %R %Total
2024D58.9%41.1%15,348,846
2022D61.1%38.9%10,843,650
2018D100.0%0.0%11,113,364
2016D100.0%0.0%12,244,170
2012D62.5%37.5%12,578,511
2010D52.2%42.2%10,000,160
2006D59.4%35.0%8,541,476
2004D57.7%37.8%12,053,295
2000D55.8%36.6%10,623,608
1998D53.1%43.0%8,311,905
1994D46.7%44.8%8,514,089
1992D47.9%43.0%10,799,703
1988R44.0%52.8%9,743,598
1986D49.3%47.9%7,398,462
1982R44.8%51.5%7,805,450
1980D56.5%37.1%8,324,012
1976R46.9%50.2%7,470,586

Demographics

Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
Irish
6.9%
German
6.4%
English
6.1%
Italian
4.8%
American
2.5%
French
1.8%
Scottish
0.9%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 40.6 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
0.9%
85+
1.5%
2.3%
75–84
2.9%
4.7%
65–74
5.2%
6.4%
55–64
6.3%
6.8%
45–54
6.5%
7.9%
35–44
7.3%
8.5%
25–34
7.8%
3.6%
18–24
3.5%
6.6%
5–17
6.2%
2.4%
<5
2.3%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$152,921
Congressional District 15 ranks near the middle of US counties.
Congressional District 15$152,921
California$99,122
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
8.2%
Child poverty is below the national average.
Children under 187.1%
Working age (18–64)7.8%
Seniors (65+)13.5%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
54.9%
speak English only
Asian & Pacific Islander21.5%
Spanish15.4%
Other Indo-European6.9%
Other languages1.1%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Catholic & Orthodox
21.2%
Other Christian
4.0%
Non-Christian
3.9%
Mainline Protestant
1.6%
Baptist
1.4%
Pentecostal & Holiness
1.1%
Methodist
1.1%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 65.7% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

CA-15 covers a dense East Bay corridor with a heavily diverse, urban electorate that has delivered some of the widest presidential margins in the state, exceeding 35 points in 2024.

The Democratic margin in California 15th Congressional District reached its widest at sixty-four points in 2016. The margin in 2024 was fifty-five points — still decisive.

Its loyalty is rooted in its place. Median household income of $152,921, a 38% non-Hispanic-white share, and a population of 280,676 together describe a district whose political habits are deeply settled.

Compare two places, side by side

Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Congressional District 15, California. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cd/0615/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did Congressional District 15, California vote in 2024?
In 2024, Congressional District 15, California voted Democratic by 55.4 points (D+55), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 128,720 votes cast, 97,693 went Democratic and 26,378 went Republican.
What is Congressional District 15, California's political archetype?
Akashic classifies Congressional District 15, California as a "Democratic loyalist" district based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the district has voted Democratic 22 times, Republican 15 times, and other 1 times.
When did Congressional District 15, California last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Congressional District 15, California voted Republican was 1980.
How many people live in Congressional District 15, California?
Congressional District 15, California has a population of 280,676 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Congressional District 15, California?
Median household income in Congressional District 15, California is $152,921 — above the national median of $80,734. The California state median is $99,122.
What is the political history of Congressional District 15, California?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Congressional District 15, California from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 22 went Democratic and 15 went Republican. The district's archetype — "Democratic loyalist" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.