- Lead
- 8,944
- Total
- 13,336
- vs nation
- D+68.5
Connecticut 15th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 9,826
- Total
- 13,883
- vs nation
- D+66.3
- Lead
- 8,461
- Total
- 12,654
- vs nation
- D+64.8
- Lead
- 8,709
- Total
- 12,514
- vs nation
- D+65.7
- Lead
- 9,781
- Total
- 13,506
- vs nation
- D+65.1
- Lead
- 7,919
- Total
- 12,022
- vs nation
- D+68.3
- Lead
- 7,882
- Total
- 11,576
- vs nation
- D+67.6
- Lead
- 7,349
- Total
- 11,021
- vs nation
- D+58.2
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+67.1MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 23,7032024 5-year
- Population density
- 884 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 26.8 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $100,0602024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 35.1%2024 5-year
- Black
- 46.8%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 8.0%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+79.7 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 200, PA · twin score 93.1
presidential history
Party record book
Connecticut 15th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
89.8%
10,356 votes · D+79.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 85.9%
Republican
William McKinley1896
39.8%
310 votes · D+15.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Calvin Coolidge, 1924 · 35.3%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
11,789votes
84.9% of the vote · D+70.8 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 11,600 votes
Republican
Ronald Reagan1984
2,681votes
26.9% of the vote · D+46.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Richard Nixon, 1972 · 2,505 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
George McGovern1972
+73.0pts D vs U.S.
Place D+49.8 · U.S. R+23.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · +68.5 pts
Republican
William McKinley1896
−21.6pts R vs U.S.
Place D+15.6 · U.S. R+6.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William H. Taft, 1912 · −26.4 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | D | 63.4%6,951 | 36.6%4,008 | 10,959 |
| 2018 | D | 63.6%5,415 | 36.4%3,103 | 8,518 |
Despite Connecticut's statewide Democratic tilt, this district delivered a double-digit Republican presidential margin in 2024, signaling a voter base that consistently diverges from the state's overall direction.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 79.7 points in 1964. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 3.7 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 67.1 points.
A population of 23,703, a 35% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $100,060 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 200 and State Representative District 1.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Connecticut 15th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/09015/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.