Maricopa County vs Clark County

Side-by-side: the political memory, the demographic profile, and the deepest deltas between these two places.

Maricopa County

LatestR+3.5in 2024

Population4,559,7482024 ACS

Most similarMorris CountyNJ · twin score 97.0

Key facts

2024 presidential margin: R+3.5MIT Election Lab
Population: 4,559,7482024 5-year
Population density: 496 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
Land area: 9,202 sq miTIGER/Line
Median household income: $89,3002024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic): 52.5%2024 5-year
Black: 5.4%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino: 31.2%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin: D+38.6 in 1936MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin: R+44.9 in 1984MIT Election Lab
Most similar: Morris County, NJ · twin score 97.0

Participation

Midterm durability

Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.

2024 total turnout: 64.8%2,078,460 participants ÷ 3,206,005 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off: +18.5 ptsVolatile
Drop-off versus state: +1.4 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026 scenario: 46.3%–50.7%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast

Election	Participants	CVAP	Turnout	Quality
2016 · Presidential	1,649,961	2,723,563	60.6%	A/A
2018 · Midterm	1,454,103	2,860,362	50.8%	A/A
2020 · Presidential	2,089,563	3,016,512	69.3%	A/A
2022 · Midterm	1,562,758	3,079,626	50.7%	A/A
2024 · Presidential	2,078,460	3,206,005	64.8%	A/A

Sources and methods

2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.

presidential history

Margin, 1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876)

Presidential margin over time
Year	Margin (D minus R)
1912	+34.6%
1916	+12.9%
1920	−12.5%
1924	−6.0%
1928	−24.6%
1932	+30.5%
1936	+38.6%
1940	+21.4%
1944	+12.8%
1948	+5.0%
1952	−21.1%
1956	−26.1%
1960	−18.8%
1964	−7.9%
1968	−27.7%
1972	−42.3%
1976	−27.1%
1980	−40.4%
1984	−44.9%
1988	−31.0%
1992	−8.5%
1996	−2.7%
2000	−10.3%
2004	−14.6%
2008	−10.6%
2012	−10.7%
2016	−2.8%
2020	+2.2%
2024	−3.5%

38 presidential elections

Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle; not shown when either cycle is estimated or under source review.
Year	Won	Democratic	Republican	Other	Margin	Swing	Total
2024	R	47.7%Harris980,016	51.2%Trump1,051,531	0.6%Stein11,661 +6	R+3.5	R+5.7	2,054,415
All 9 candidates in 2024 · 7 minor / independent Donald J TrumpRepublican51.2%1,051,531 Kamala D HarrisDemocratic47.7%980,016 Jill SteinIndependent0.6%11,661 Chase OliverLibertarian0.5%10,737 Claudia De La CruzIndependent0.0%388 Shiva AyyaduraiIndependent0.0%40 SkousenIndependent0.0%28 SheltonIndependent0.0%10 BoddieIndependent0.0%4
2020	D	50.1%Biden1,040,774	48.0%Trump995,665	1.5%Jorgensen31,705	D+2.2	D+5.0	2,076,086
2016	R	44.8%Clinton702,907	47.7%Trump747,361	7.5%	R+2.8	D+7.9	1,567,834
2012	R	43.6%Obama602,288	54.3%Romney749,885	1.5%Johnson20,071	R+10.7	R+0.1	1,380,959
2008	R	44.1%Obama602,166	54.7%McCain746,448	1.2%	R+10.6	D+4.0	1,364,962
2004	R	42.2%Kerry504,849	56.9%Bush679,455	0.9%	R+14.6	R+4.3	1,194,961
2000	R	42.9%Gore386,683	53.2%Bush479,967	2.5%Nader22,465	R+10.3	R+7.7	901,699
1996	R	44.5%Clinton363,991	47.2%Dole386,015	7.2%Perot58,479	R+2.7	D+5.8	817,432
1992	R	32.6%Clinton285,457	41.1%Bush360,049	25.3%Perot221,475	R+8.5	D+22.5	876,832
1988	R	33.9%Dukakis230,952	64.9%Bush442,337	1.2%	R+31.0	D+13.9	681,518
1984	R	27.1%Mondale154,833	72.0%Reagan411,902	1.0%	R+44.9	R+4.6	572,273
1980	R	24.6%Carter119,752	65.0%Reagan316,287	10.4%	R+40.4	R+13.2	486,834
1976	R	34.5%Carter144,613	61.7%Ford258,262	3.8%	R+27.1	D+15.2	418,841
1972	R	27.0%McGovern95,135	69.3%Nixon244,593	3.8%	R+42.3	R+14.6	353,000
1968	R	31.4%Humphrey86,204	59.1%Nixon162,262	9.5%	R+27.7	R+19.8	274,651
1964	R	46.0%Johnson122,042	53.9%Goldwater143,114	0.1%	R+7.9	D+10.9	265,326
1960	R	40.6%Kennedy86,834	59.4%Nixon127,090	0.1%	R+18.8	D+7.2	214,059
1956	R	36.9%Stevenson54,010	63.0%Eisenhower92,140	0.1%	R+26.1	R+4.9	146,341
1952	R	39.4%Stevenson50,285	60.6%Eisenhower77,249	0.0%	R+21.1	R+26.1	127,534
1948	D	51.3%Truman40,498	46.3%Dewey36,585	2.4%	D+5.0	R+7.9	78,992
1944	D	56.2%Roosevelt32,197	43.4%Dewey24,853	0.4%	D+12.8	R+8.6	57,258
1940	D	60.4%Roosevelt35,055	38.9%Willkie22,610	0.7%	D+21.4	R+17.1	58,079
1936	D	67.3%Roosevelt32,031	28.7%Landon13,671	4.0%	D+38.6	D+8.0	47,610
1932	D	64.6%Roosevelt28,601	34.1%Hoover15,086	1.3%	D+30.5	D+55.1	44,280
1928	R	37.6%Smith12,146	62.3%Hoover20,089	0.1%	R+24.6	R+18.6	32,269
1924	R	38.6%Davis9,177	44.7%Coolidge10,611	16.7%La Follette3,970	R+6.0	D+6.4	23,758
1920	R	43.8%Cox8,825	56.2%Harding11,336	0.0%	R+12.5	R+25.3	20,161
1916	D	52.1%Wilson7,634	39.3%Hughes5,747	8.6%	D+12.9	R+21.8	14,640
1912	D	46.0%Wilson2,606	11.3%Taft642	42.7%	D+34.6	—	5,669
1908	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—
1904	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—
1900	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—
1896	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—
1892	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—
1888	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—
1884	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—
1880	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—
1876	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—

Clark County

LatestD+2.6in 2024

Population2,329,5482024 ACS

Most similarLehigh CountyPA · twin score 95.0

Key facts

2024 presidential margin: D+2.6MIT Election Lab
Population: 2,329,5482024 5-year
Population density: 295 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
Land area: 7,892 sq miTIGER/Line
Median household income: $76,4722024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic): 38.3%2024 5-year
Black: 11.5%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino: 31.9%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin: D+62.5 in 1932MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin: R+29.7 in 1980MIT Election Lab
Most similar: Lehigh County, PA · twin score 95.0

Participation

Midterm durability

Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.

2024 total turnout: 64.9%1,033,352 participants ÷ 1,591,782 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off: +21.1 ptsPresidential-dependent
Drop-off versus state: +0.6 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026 scenario: 43.9%–49.2%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast

Election	Participants	CVAP	Turnout	Quality
2016 · Presidential	769,539	1,351,615	56.9%	A/A
2018 · Midterm	655,497	1,408,482	46.5%	A/A
2020 · Presidential	974,192	1,486,838	65.5%	A/A
2022 · Midterm	681,935	1,533,568	44.5%	A/A
2024 · Presidential	1,033,352	1,591,782	64.9%	A/A

Sources and methods

2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.

presidential history

Margin, 1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876)

Presidential margin over time
Year	Margin (D minus R)
1912	+29.6%
1916	+31.6%
1920	+2.3%
1924	−15.0%
1928	−13.2%
1932	+62.5%
1936	+62.4%
1940	+40.7%
1944	+23.6%
1948	+25.2%
1952	−5.9%
1956	+1.4%
1960	+13.6%
1964	+26.0%
1968	+2.3%
1972	−18.1%
1976	+2.9%
1980	−29.7%
1984	−27.1%
1988	−15.5%
1992	+9.0%
1996	+9.3%
2000	+6.6%
2004	+4.8%
2008	+19.1%
2012	+14.6%
2016	+10.7%
2020	+9.3%
2024	+2.6%

38 presidential elections

Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle; not shown when either cycle is estimated or under source review.
Year	Won	Democratic	Republican	Other	Margin	Swing	Total
2024	D	50.4%Harris520,187	47.8%Trump493,052	0.4%Oliver3,726 +2	D+2.6	R+6.7	1,031,223
All 5 candidates in 2024 · 3 minor / independent Kamala D HarrisDemocratic50.4%520,187 Donald J TrumpRepublican47.8%493,052 OtherAll other candidates1.2%12,659 Chase OliverIndependent0.4%3,726 Joel SkousenIndependent0.2%1,599
2020	D	53.7%Biden521,852	44.3%Trump430,930	0.9%NON9,023	D+9.3	R+1.4	972,510
2016	D	52.4%Clinton402,227	41.7%Trump320,057	2.9%Johnson22,453	D+10.7	R+3.9	767,156
2012	D	56.4%Obama389,936	41.8%Romney289,053	1.0%Johnson7,058	D+14.6	R+4.5	691,190
2008	D	58.8%Obama380,765	39.7%McCain257,078	1.5%	D+19.1	D+14.3	647,490
2004	D	51.7%Kerry281,767	46.8%Bush255,337	1.5%	D+4.8	R+1.7	545,397
2000	D	51.3%Gore196,100	44.7%Bush170,932	2.1%Nader7,942	D+6.6	R+2.8	382,198
1996	D	48.7%Clinton127,963	39.4%Dole103,431	8.8%Perot23,177	D+9.3	D+0.4	262,710
1992	D	41.1%Clinton124,586	32.2%Bush97,403	24.9%Perot75,364	D+9.0	D+24.5	302,782
1988	R	40.9%Dukakis78,359	56.4%Bush108,110	2.8%	R+15.5	D+11.6	191,779
1984	R	35.5%Mondale53,386	62.6%Reagan94,133	1.9%	R+27.1	D+2.6	150,363
1980	R	30.1%Carter38,313	59.8%Reagan76,194	10.1%	R+29.7	R+32.6	127,424
1976	D	49.8%Carter51,178	46.9%Ford48,236	3.3%	D+2.9	D+21.0	102,812
1972	R	40.9%McGovern36,807	59.1%Nixon53,101	0.0%	R+18.1	R+20.4	89,908
1968	D	44.3%Humphrey33,225	42.0%Nixon31,522	13.7%	D+2.3	R+23.8	75,065
1964	D	63.0%Johnson40,760	37.0%Goldwater23,921	0.0%	D+26.0	D+12.4	64,681
1960	D	56.8%Kennedy23,949	43.2%Nixon18,197	0.0%	D+13.6	D+12.3	42,146
1956	D	50.7%Stevenson19,095	49.3%Eisenhower18,584	0.0%	D+1.4	D+7.2	37,679
1952	R	47.1%Stevenson11,855	52.9%Eisenhower13,333	0.0%	R+5.9	R+31.1	25,188
1948	D	61.8%Truman10,787	36.6%Dewey6,382	1.6%	D+25.2	D+1.6	17,453
1944	D	61.8%Roosevelt7,350	38.2%Dewey4,543	0.0%	D+23.6	R+17.1	11,893
1940	D	70.4%Roosevelt5,154	29.6%Willkie2,170	0.0%	D+40.7	R+21.7	7,324
1936	D	81.2%Roosevelt5,091	18.8%Landon1,178	0.0%	D+62.4	R+0.1	6,269
1932	D	81.3%Roosevelt5,837	18.8%Hoover1,347	0.0%	D+62.5	D+75.7	7,184
1928	R	43.4%Smith984	56.6%Hoover1,284	0.0%	R+13.2	D+1.7	2,268
1924	O	17.6%Davis288	32.6%Coolidge533	49.8%La Follette815	La Follette +17.2	R+17.3	1,636
1920	D	47.0%Cox620	44.6%Harding589	8.4%	D+2.3	R+29.3	1,320
1916	D	60.2%Wilson1,115	28.5%Hughes529	11.3%	D+31.6	D+2.0	1,853
1912	O	42.8%Wilson358	13.1%Taft110	44.1%	Roosevelt +1.3	—	837
1908	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—
1904	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—
1900	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—
1896	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—
1892	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—
1888	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—
1884	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—
1880	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—
1876	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—

Biggest differences

Top 9 deltas, ranked by absolute magnitude.
Metric	Maricopa County	Clark County
Population	4,559,748	2,329,548
Median household income	$89,300	$76,472
White (non-Hispanic)	52.5%	38.3%
Latest presidential margin	R+3.5	D+2.6
Black	5.4%	11.5%
Asian	4.5%	10.5%
Poverty rate (overall)	11.0%	13.0%
Median age	37.6	38.5
Hispanic / Latino	31.2%	31.9%

Maricopa County vs Clark County

Side-by-side: the political memory, the demographic profile, and the deepest deltas between these two places.

Maricopa County

LatestR+3.5in 2024

Population4,559,7482024 ACS

Most similarMorris CountyNJ · twin score 97.0

Key facts

2024 presidential margin: R+3.5MIT Election Lab
Population: 4,559,7482024 5-year
Population density: 496 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
Land area: 9,202 sq miTIGER/Line
Median household income: $89,3002024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic): 52.5%2024 5-year
Black: 5.4%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino: 31.2%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin: D+38.6 in 1936MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin: R+44.9 in 1984MIT Election Lab
Most similar: Morris County, NJ · twin score 97.0

Participation

Midterm durability

Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.

2024 total turnout: 64.8%2,078,460 participants ÷ 3,206,005 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off: +18.5 ptsVolatile
Drop-off versus state: +1.4 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026 scenario: 46.3%–50.7%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast

Election	Participants	CVAP	Turnout	Quality
2016 · Presidential	1,649,961	2,723,563	60.6%	A/A
2018 · Midterm	1,454,103	2,860,362	50.8%	A/A
2020 · Presidential	2,089,563	3,016,512	69.3%	A/A
2022 · Midterm	1,562,758	3,079,626	50.7%	A/A
2024 · Presidential	2,078,460	3,206,005	64.8%	A/A

Sources and methods

2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.

presidential history

Margin, 1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876)

Presidential margin over time
Year	Margin (D minus R)
1912	+34.6%
1916	+12.9%
1920	−12.5%
1924	−6.0%
1928	−24.6%
1932	+30.5%
1936	+38.6%
1940	+21.4%
1944	+12.8%
1948	+5.0%
1952	−21.1%
1956	−26.1%
1960	−18.8%
1964	−7.9%
1968	−27.7%
1972	−42.3%
1976	−27.1%
1980	−40.4%
1984	−44.9%
1988	−31.0%
1992	−8.5%
1996	−2.7%
2000	−10.3%
2004	−14.6%
2008	−10.6%
2012	−10.7%
2016	−2.8%
2020	+2.2%
2024	−3.5%

38 presidential elections

Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle; not shown when either cycle is estimated or under source review.
Year	Won	Democratic	Republican	Other	Margin	Swing	Total
2024	R	47.7%Harris980,016	51.2%Trump1,051,531	0.6%Stein11,661 +6	R+3.5	R+5.7	2,054,415
All 9 candidates in 2024 · 7 minor / independent Donald J TrumpRepublican51.2%1,051,531 Kamala D HarrisDemocratic47.7%980,016 Jill SteinIndependent0.6%11,661 Chase OliverLibertarian0.5%10,737 Claudia De La CruzIndependent0.0%388 Shiva AyyaduraiIndependent0.0%40 SkousenIndependent0.0%28 SheltonIndependent0.0%10 BoddieIndependent0.0%4
2020	D	50.1%Biden1,040,774	48.0%Trump995,665	1.5%Jorgensen31,705	D+2.2	D+5.0	2,076,086
2016	R	44.8%Clinton702,907	47.7%Trump747,361	7.5%	R+2.8	D+7.9	1,567,834
2012	R	43.6%Obama602,288	54.3%Romney749,885	1.5%Johnson20,071	R+10.7	R+0.1	1,380,959
2008	R	44.1%Obama602,166	54.7%McCain746,448	1.2%	R+10.6	D+4.0	1,364,962
2004	R	42.2%Kerry504,849	56.9%Bush679,455	0.9%	R+14.6	R+4.3	1,194,961
2000	R	42.9%Gore386,683	53.2%Bush479,967	2.5%Nader22,465	R+10.3	R+7.7	901,699
1996	R	44.5%Clinton363,991	47.2%Dole386,015	7.2%Perot58,479	R+2.7	D+5.8	817,432
1992	R	32.6%Clinton285,457	41.1%Bush360,049	25.3%Perot221,475	R+8.5	D+22.5	876,832
1988	R	33.9%Dukakis230,952	64.9%Bush442,337	1.2%	R+31.0	D+13.9	681,518
1984	R	27.1%Mondale154,833	72.0%Reagan411,902	1.0%	R+44.9	R+4.6	572,273
1980	R	24.6%Carter119,752	65.0%Reagan316,287	10.4%	R+40.4	R+13.2	486,834
1976	R	34.5%Carter144,613	61.7%Ford258,262	3.8%	R+27.1	D+15.2	418,841
1972	R	27.0%McGovern95,135	69.3%Nixon244,593	3.8%	R+42.3	R+14.6	353,000
1968	R	31.4%Humphrey86,204	59.1%Nixon162,262	9.5%	R+27.7	R+19.8	274,651
1964	R	46.0%Johnson122,042	53.9%Goldwater143,114	0.1%	R+7.9	D+10.9	265,326
1960	R	40.6%Kennedy86,834	59.4%Nixon127,090	0.1%	R+18.8	D+7.2	214,059
1956	R	36.9%Stevenson54,010	63.0%Eisenhower92,140	0.1%	R+26.1	R+4.9	146,341
1952	R	39.4%Stevenson50,285	60.6%Eisenhower77,249	0.0%	R+21.1	R+26.1	127,534
1948	D	51.3%Truman40,498	46.3%Dewey36,585	2.4%	D+5.0	R+7.9	78,992
1944	D	56.2%Roosevelt32,197	43.4%Dewey24,853	0.4%	D+12.8	R+8.6	57,258
1940	D	60.4%Roosevelt35,055	38.9%Willkie22,610	0.7%	D+21.4	R+17.1	58,079
1936	D	67.3%Roosevelt32,031	28.7%Landon13,671	4.0%	D+38.6	D+8.0	47,610
1932	D	64.6%Roosevelt28,601	34.1%Hoover15,086	1.3%	D+30.5	D+55.1	44,280
1928	R	37.6%Smith12,146	62.3%Hoover20,089	0.1%	R+24.6	R+18.6	32,269
1924	R	38.6%Davis9,177	44.7%Coolidge10,611	16.7%La Follette3,970	R+6.0	D+6.4	23,758
1920	R	43.8%Cox8,825	56.2%Harding11,336	0.0%	R+12.5	R+25.3	20,161
1916	D	52.1%Wilson7,634	39.3%Hughes5,747	8.6%	D+12.9	R+21.8	14,640
1912	D	46.0%Wilson2,606	11.3%Taft642	42.7%	D+34.6	—	5,669
1908	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—
1904	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—
1900	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—
1896	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—
1892	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—
1888	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—
1884	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—
1880	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—
1876	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—

Clark County

LatestD+2.6in 2024

Population2,329,5482024 ACS

Most similarLehigh CountyPA · twin score 95.0

Key facts

2024 presidential margin: D+2.6MIT Election Lab
Population: 2,329,5482024 5-year
Population density: 295 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
Land area: 7,892 sq miTIGER/Line
Median household income: $76,4722024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic): 38.3%2024 5-year
Black: 11.5%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino: 31.9%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin: D+62.5 in 1932MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin: R+29.7 in 1980MIT Election Lab
Most similar: Lehigh County, PA · twin score 95.0

Participation

Midterm durability

Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.

2024 total turnout: 64.9%1,033,352 participants ÷ 1,591,782 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off: +21.1 ptsPresidential-dependent
Drop-off versus state: +0.6 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026 scenario: 43.9%–49.2%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast

Election	Participants	CVAP	Turnout	Quality
2016 · Presidential	769,539	1,351,615	56.9%	A/A
2018 · Midterm	655,497	1,408,482	46.5%	A/A
2020 · Presidential	974,192	1,486,838	65.5%	A/A
2022 · Midterm	681,935	1,533,568	44.5%	A/A
2024 · Presidential	1,033,352	1,591,782	64.9%	A/A

Sources and methods

2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.

presidential history

Margin, 1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876)

Presidential margin over time
Year	Margin (D minus R)
1912	+29.6%
1916	+31.6%
1920	+2.3%
1924	−15.0%
1928	−13.2%
1932	+62.5%
1936	+62.4%
1940	+40.7%
1944	+23.6%
1948	+25.2%
1952	−5.9%
1956	+1.4%
1960	+13.6%
1964	+26.0%
1968	+2.3%
1972	−18.1%
1976	+2.9%
1980	−29.7%
1984	−27.1%
1988	−15.5%
1992	+9.0%
1996	+9.3%
2000	+6.6%
2004	+4.8%
2008	+19.1%
2012	+14.6%
2016	+10.7%
2020	+9.3%
2024	+2.6%

38 presidential elections

Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle; not shown when either cycle is estimated or under source review.
Year	Won	Democratic	Republican	Other	Margin	Swing	Total
2024	D	50.4%Harris520,187	47.8%Trump493,052	0.4%Oliver3,726 +2	D+2.6	R+6.7	1,031,223
All 5 candidates in 2024 · 3 minor / independent Kamala D HarrisDemocratic50.4%520,187 Donald J TrumpRepublican47.8%493,052 OtherAll other candidates1.2%12,659 Chase OliverIndependent0.4%3,726 Joel SkousenIndependent0.2%1,599
2020	D	53.7%Biden521,852	44.3%Trump430,930	0.9%NON9,023	D+9.3	R+1.4	972,510
2016	D	52.4%Clinton402,227	41.7%Trump320,057	2.9%Johnson22,453	D+10.7	R+3.9	767,156
2012	D	56.4%Obama389,936	41.8%Romney289,053	1.0%Johnson7,058	D+14.6	R+4.5	691,190
2008	D	58.8%Obama380,765	39.7%McCain257,078	1.5%	D+19.1	D+14.3	647,490
2004	D	51.7%Kerry281,767	46.8%Bush255,337	1.5%	D+4.8	R+1.7	545,397
2000	D	51.3%Gore196,100	44.7%Bush170,932	2.1%Nader7,942	D+6.6	R+2.8	382,198
1996	D	48.7%Clinton127,963	39.4%Dole103,431	8.8%Perot23,177	D+9.3	D+0.4	262,710
1992	D	41.1%Clinton124,586	32.2%Bush97,403	24.9%Perot75,364	D+9.0	D+24.5	302,782
1988	R	40.9%Dukakis78,359	56.4%Bush108,110	2.8%	R+15.5	D+11.6	191,779
1984	R	35.5%Mondale53,386	62.6%Reagan94,133	1.9%	R+27.1	D+2.6	150,363
1980	R	30.1%Carter38,313	59.8%Reagan76,194	10.1%	R+29.7	R+32.6	127,424
1976	D	49.8%Carter51,178	46.9%Ford48,236	3.3%	D+2.9	D+21.0	102,812
1972	R	40.9%McGovern36,807	59.1%Nixon53,101	0.0%	R+18.1	R+20.4	89,908
1968	D	44.3%Humphrey33,225	42.0%Nixon31,522	13.7%	D+2.3	R+23.8	75,065
1964	D	63.0%Johnson40,760	37.0%Goldwater23,921	0.0%	D+26.0	D+12.4	64,681
1960	D	56.8%Kennedy23,949	43.2%Nixon18,197	0.0%	D+13.6	D+12.3	42,146
1956	D	50.7%Stevenson19,095	49.3%Eisenhower18,584	0.0%	D+1.4	D+7.2	37,679
1952	R	47.1%Stevenson11,855	52.9%Eisenhower13,333	0.0%	R+5.9	R+31.1	25,188
1948	D	61.8%Truman10,787	36.6%Dewey6,382	1.6%	D+25.2	D+1.6	17,453
1944	D	61.8%Roosevelt7,350	38.2%Dewey4,543	0.0%	D+23.6	R+17.1	11,893
1940	D	70.4%Roosevelt5,154	29.6%Willkie2,170	0.0%	D+40.7	R+21.7	7,324
1936	D	81.2%Roosevelt5,091	18.8%Landon1,178	0.0%	D+62.4	R+0.1	6,269
1932	D	81.3%Roosevelt5,837	18.8%Hoover1,347	0.0%	D+62.5	D+75.7	7,184
1928	R	43.4%Smith984	56.6%Hoover1,284	0.0%	R+13.2	D+1.7	2,268
1924	O	17.6%Davis288	32.6%Coolidge533	49.8%La Follette815	La Follette +17.2	R+17.3	1,636
1920	D	47.0%Cox620	44.6%Harding589	8.4%	D+2.3	R+29.3	1,320
1916	D	60.2%Wilson1,115	28.5%Hughes529	11.3%	D+31.6	D+2.0	1,853
1912	O	42.8%Wilson358	13.1%Taft110	44.1%	Roosevelt +1.3	—	837
1908	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—
1904	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—
1900	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—
1896	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—
1892	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—
1888	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—
1884	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—
1880	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—
1876	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—

Biggest differences

Top 9 deltas, ranked by absolute magnitude.
Metric	Maricopa County	Clark County
Population	4,559,748	2,329,548
Median household income	$89,300	$76,472
White (non-Hispanic)	52.5%	38.3%
Latest presidential margin	R+3.5	D+2.6
Black	5.4%	11.5%
Asian	4.5%	10.5%
Poverty rate (overall)	11.0%	13.0%
Median age	37.6	38.5
Hispanic / Latino	31.2%	31.9%