Fairfax County vs McDowell County

Side-by-side: the political memory, the demographic profile, and the deepest deltas between these two places.

Fairfax County

LatestD+34.7in 2024

Population1,147,8372024 ACS

Most similarFairfax cityVA · twin score 99.0

Key facts

2024 presidential margin: D+34.7MIT Election Lab
Population: 1,147,8372024 5-year
Population density: 2,936 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
Land area: 391 sq miTIGER/Line
Median household income: $153,6372024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic): 46.8%2024 5-year
Black: 9.4%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino: 17.6%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin: D+60.2 in 1912MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin: R+34.2 in 1928MIT Election Lab
Most similar: Fairfax city, VA · twin score 99.0

Participation

Midterm durability

Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.

2024 total turnout: 77.2%592,808 participants ÷ 767,585 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off: +26.5 ptsPresidential-dependent
Drop-off versus state: +2.7 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026 scenario: 50.8%–58.2%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast

Election	Participants	CVAP	Turnout	Quality
2016 · Presidential	554,603	715,977	77.5%	A/A
2018 · Midterm	480,485	729,786	65.8%	C/A
2020 · Presidential	605,840	745,748	81.2%	A/A
2022 · Midterm	415,218	757,945	54.8%	A/A
2024 · Presidential	592,808	767,585	77.2%	A/A

Sources and methods

2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
2018: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 150/138.
2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.

presidential history

Margin, 1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876)

Presidential margin over time
Year	Margin (D minus R)
1892	+16.9%
1896	+5.8%
1900	+17.2%
1904	+29.1%
1908	+47.4%
1912	+60.2%
1916	+42.4%
1920	+23.3%
1924	+32.2%
1928	−34.2%
1932	+32.4%
1936	+29.4%
1940	+15.8%
1944	−6.1%
1948	−12.8%
1952	−21.9%
1956	−13.8%
1960	−3.6%
1964	+22.5%
1968	−10.8%
1972	−33.9%
1976	−8.9%
1980	−26.7%
1984	−26.1%
1988	−22.8%
1992	−2.7%
1996	−1.6%
2000	−1.4%
2004	+7.3%
2008	+21.2%
2012	+20.5%
2016	+35.8%
2020	+41.9%
2024	+34.7%

38 presidential elections

Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle; not shown when either cycle is estimated or under source review.
Year	Won	Democratic	Republican	Other	Margin	Swing	Total
2024	D	65.6%Harris386,438	30.9%Trump181,895	1.8%Stein10,662 +4	D+34.7	R+7.2	589,427
All 7 candidates in 2024 · 5 minor / independent Kamala D HarrisDemocratic65.6%386,438 Donald J TrumpRepublican30.9%181,895 Jill SteinIndependent1.8%10,662 OtherAll other candidates0.9%5,040 Chase OliverLibertarian0.5%2,898 Cornel R WestIndependent0.2%1,296 Claudia De La CruzIndependent0.2%1,198
2020	D	69.9%Biden419,943	28.0%Trump168,401	1.3%Jorgensen8,014	D+41.9	D+6.0	600,823
2016	D	64.4%Clinton355,133	28.6%Trump157,710	2.8%Johnson15,664	D+35.8	D+15.3	551,183
2012	D	59.6%Obama315,273	39.1%Romney206,773	1.4%	D+20.5	R+0.7	529,287
2008	D	60.1%Obama310,359	38.9%McCain200,994	0.9%	D+21.2	D+13.9	516,254
2004	D	53.2%Kerry245,671	45.9%Bush211,980	0.8%	D+7.3	D+8.7	461,379
2000	R	47.5%Gore196,501	48.9%Bush202,181	2.9%Nader12,201	R+1.4	D+0.2	413,775
1996	R	46.6%Clinton170,150	48.2%Dole176,033	4.4%Perot16,134	R+1.6	D+1.1	365,263
1992	R	41.6%Clinton160,186	44.3%Bush170,488	13.8%Perot53,012	R+2.7	D+20.1	385,218
1988	R	38.3%Dukakis125,711	61.1%Bush200,641	0.6%	R+22.8	D+3.2	328,365
1984	R	36.8%Mondale107,295	62.9%Reagan183,181	0.3%	R+26.1	D+0.6	291,298
1980	R	30.8%Carter73,734	57.4%Reagan137,620	11.8%	R+26.7	R+17.7	239,705
1976	R	44.7%Carter92,037	53.6%Ford110,424	1.7%	R+8.9	D+24.9	205,957
1972	R	32.4%McGovern54,844	66.3%Nixon112,135	1.3%	R+33.9	R+23.1	169,246
1968	R	38.2%Humphrey44,796	49.0%Nixon57,462	12.8%	R+10.8	R+33.3	117,319
1964	D	61.2%Johnson48,680	38.7%Goldwater30,755	0.1%	D+22.5	D+26.1	79,517
1960	R	48.1%Kennedy26,064	51.7%Nixon28,006	0.3%	R+3.6	D+10.2	54,219
1956	R	41.9%Stevenson15,633	55.7%Eisenhower20,761	2.3%	R+13.8	D+8.2	37,267
1952	R	39.0%Stevenson8,329	60.9%Eisenhower13,020	0.1%	R+21.9	R+9.2	21,379
1948	R	39.2%Truman3,719	52.0%Dewey4,930	8.9%	R+12.8	R+6.7	9,489
1944	R	46.8%Roosevelt3,582	52.8%Dewey4,046	0.4%	R+6.1	R+21.8	7,662
1940	D	57.7%Roosevelt3,263	41.9%Willkie2,371	0.5%	D+15.8	R+13.6	5,660
1936	D	64.3%Roosevelt2,913	35.0%Landon1,584	0.7%	D+29.4	R+3.0	4,527
1932	D	65.3%Roosevelt2,714	32.9%Hoover1,368	1.7%	D+32.4	D+66.6	4,154
1928	R	32.9%Smith1,229	67.1%Hoover2,507	0.0%	R+34.2	R+66.4	3,736
1924	D	62.2%Davis1,586	30.0%Coolidge765	7.6%La Follette195	D+32.2	D+8.8	2,550
1920	D	61.1%Cox1,598	37.7%Harding987	1.2%	D+23.3	R+19.1	2,617
1916	D	70.8%Wilson1,179	28.3%Hughes472	0.9%	D+42.4	R+17.7	1,666
1912	D	74.1%Wilson992	14.0%Taft187	11.9%	D+60.2	D+12.8	1,338
1908	D	73.3%Bryan1,143	25.9%Taft404	0.8%	D+47.4	D+18.3	1,560
1904	D	63.9%Parker774	34.8%Roosevelt422	1.2%	D+29.1	D+11.9	1,211
1900	D	58.4%Bryan2,135	41.2%McKinley1,507	0.4%	D+17.2	D+11.4	3,656
1896	D	52.5%Bryan2,109	46.7%McKinley1,877	0.7%	D+5.8	R+11.1	4,016
1892	D	58.1%Cleveland2,168	41.2%Harrison1,537	0.7%	D+16.9	—	3,730
1888	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—
1884	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—
1880	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—
1876	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—

McDowell County

LatestR+60.4in 2024

Population17,9432024 ACS

County seatWelchWV

Most similarBoone CountyWV · twin score 100.0

Key facts

2024 presidential margin: R+60.4MIT Election Lab
Population: 17,9432024 5-year
Population density: 34 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
Land area: 534 sq miTIGER/Line
Median household income: $31,5592024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic): 86.5%2024 5-year
Black: 8.8%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino: 2.1%2024 5-year
County seat: Welch
Peak Democratic margin: D+66.1 in 1964MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin: R+60.4 in 2024MIT Election Lab
Most similar: Boone County, WV · twin score 100.0

Participation

Midterm durability

Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.

2024 total turnout: 37.6%5,435 participants ÷ 14,439 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off: +22.4 ptsPersistently low turnout
Drop-off versus state: +1.0 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026 scenario: 15.3%–22.4%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast

Election	Participants	CVAP	Turnout	Quality
2016 · Presidential	6,371	16,201	39.3%	A/A
2018 · Midterm	4,716	15,112	31.2%	A/A
2020 · Presidential	6,527	14,234	45.9%	C/A
2022 · Midterm	3,481	14,817	23.5%	A/A
2024 · Presidential	5,435	14,439	37.6%	A/A

Sources and methods

2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
2020: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 152/2.
2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.

presidential history

Margin, 1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876)

Presidential margin over time
Year	Margin (D minus R)
1892	−35.1%
1896	−45.5%
1900	−51.0%
1904	−51.2%
1908	−52.4%
1912	−19.8%
1916	−31.4%
1920	−41.3%
1924	−34.8%
1928	−28.2%
1932	−13.0%
1936	+43.7%
1940	+27.5%
1944	+27.3%
1948	+37.7%
1952	+39.6%
1956	+20.5%
1960	+49.7%
1964	+66.1%
1968	+46.6%
1972	−13.5%
1976	+44.0%
1980	+42.7%
1984	+33.1%
1988	+48.8%
1992	+51.9%
1996	+54.1%
2000	+34.2%
2004	+23.8%
2008	+8.5%
2012	−29.9%
2016	−51.1%
2020	−58.4%
2024	−60.4%

38 presidential elections

Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle; not shown when either cycle is estimated or under source review.
Year	Won	Democratic	Republican	Other	Margin	Swing	Total
2024	R	19.1%Harris1,036	79.4%Trump4,310	1.0%Kennedy54 +2	R+60.4	R+1.9	5,425
All 5 candidates in 2024 · 3 minor / independent Donald J TrumpRepublican79.4%4,310 Kamala D HarrisDemocratic19.1%1,036 Robert F KennedyIndependent1.0%54 Chase OliverLibertarian0.3%15 Jill SteinIndependent0.2%10
2020	R	20.4%Biden1,333	78.9%Trump5,148	0.4%Jorgensen29	R+58.4	R+7.4	6,527
2016	R	23.0%Clinton1,438	74.1%Trump4,629	1.4%Johnson90	R+51.1	R+21.2	6,246
2012	R	34.1%Obama2,109	64.0%Romney3,959	1.9%	R+29.9	R+38.4	6,188
2008	D	53.3%Obama3,430	44.8%McCain2,882	1.8%	D+8.5	R+15.3	6,430
2004	D	61.7%Kerry4,501	37.8%Bush2,762	0.5%	D+23.8	R+10.4	7,299
2000	D	66.3%Gore4,845	32.2%Bush2,348	0.9%Nader67	D+34.2	R+19.9	7,303
1996	D	73.0%Clinton5,989	18.9%Dole1,550	8.0%Perot655	D+54.1	D+2.2	8,208
1992	D	71.8%Clinton7,019	19.8%Bush1,941	8.2%Perot803	D+51.9	D+3.1	9,781
1988	D	74.2%Dukakis7,204	25.4%Bush2,463	0.5%	D+48.8	D+15.7	9,714
1984	D	66.3%Mondale8,546	33.3%Reagan4,284	0.4%	D+33.1	R+9.7	12,883
1980	D	70.4%Carter9,822	27.7%Reagan3,862	1.9%	D+42.7	R+1.2	13,943
1976	D	72.0%Carter10,557	28.0%Ford4,107	0.0%	D+44.0	D+57.5	14,664
1972	R	43.2%McGovern6,811	56.8%Nixon8,942	0.0%	R+13.5	R+60.1	15,753
1968	D	67.8%Humphrey12,842	21.2%Nixon4,020	11.0%	D+46.6	R+19.5	18,937
1964	D	83.0%Johnson18,046	17.0%Goldwater3,684	0.0%	D+66.1	D+16.4	21,730
1960	D	74.8%Kennedy19,501	25.2%Nixon6,555	0.0%	D+49.7	D+29.2	26,056
1956	D	60.2%Stevenson16,865	39.8%Eisenhower11,138	0.0%	D+20.5	R+19.2	28,003
1952	D	69.8%Stevenson24,657	30.2%Eisenhower10,663	0.0%	D+39.6	D+1.9	35,320
1948	D	68.5%Truman21,545	30.8%Dewey9,687	0.8%	D+37.7	D+10.4	31,472
1944	D	63.6%Roosevelt19,300	36.4%Dewey11,023	0.0%	D+27.3	R+0.2	30,323
1940	D	63.7%Roosevelt24,449	36.3%Willkie13,906	0.0%	D+27.5	R+16.2	38,355
1936	D	71.8%Roosevelt25,471	28.1%Landon9,975	0.1%	D+43.7	D+56.7	35,481
1932	R	43.4%Roosevelt12,365	56.4%Hoover16,069	0.3%	R+13.0	D+15.2	28,514
1928	R	35.9%Smith8,294	64.0%Hoover14,810	0.1%	R+28.2	D+6.6	23,135
1924	R	28.2%Davis5,561	63.0%Coolidge12,422	8.9%	R+34.8	D+6.5	19,732
1920	R	29.3%Cox5,068	70.6%Harding12,198	0.1%	R+41.3	R+9.8	17,282
1916	R	34.2%Wilson3,692	65.6%Hughes7,086	0.2%	R+31.4	R+11.7	10,798
1912	R	26.8%Wilson2,497	46.5%Taft4,341	26.7%	R+19.8	D+32.6	9,327
1908	R	23.5%Bryan1,916	75.9%Taft6,176	0.6%	R+52.4	R+1.2	8,137
1904	R	24.2%Parker1,676	75.3%Roosevelt5,225	0.5%	R+51.2	R+0.2	6,937
1900	R	24.4%Bryan1,218	75.4%McKinley3,761	0.2%	R+51.0	R+5.5	4,990
1896	R	27.2%Bryan986	72.6%McKinley2,635	0.2%	R+45.5	R+10.3	3,627
1892	R	32.4%Cleveland607	67.6%Harrison1,265	0.0%	R+35.1	—	1,872
1888	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—
1884	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—
1880	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—
1876	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—

Biggest differences

Top 9 deltas, ranked by absolute magnitude.
Metric	Fairfax County	McDowell County
Population	1,147,837	17,943
Median household income	$153,637	$31,559
Latest presidential margin	D+34.7	R+60.4
White (non-Hispanic)	46.8%	86.5%
Poverty rate (overall)	5.9%	34.2%
Asian	19.9%	0.1%
Hispanic / Latino	17.6%	2.1%
Median age	39.1	43.7
Black	9.4%	8.8%

Fairfax County vs McDowell County

Side-by-side: the political memory, the demographic profile, and the deepest deltas between these two places.

Fairfax County

LatestD+34.7in 2024

Population1,147,8372024 ACS

Most similarFairfax cityVA · twin score 99.0

Key facts

2024 presidential margin: D+34.7MIT Election Lab
Population: 1,147,8372024 5-year
Population density: 2,936 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
Land area: 391 sq miTIGER/Line
Median household income: $153,6372024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic): 46.8%2024 5-year
Black: 9.4%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino: 17.6%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin: D+60.2 in 1912MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin: R+34.2 in 1928MIT Election Lab
Most similar: Fairfax city, VA · twin score 99.0

Participation

Midterm durability

Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.

2024 total turnout: 77.2%592,808 participants ÷ 767,585 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off: +26.5 ptsPresidential-dependent
Drop-off versus state: +2.7 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026 scenario: 50.8%–58.2%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast

Election	Participants	CVAP	Turnout	Quality
2016 · Presidential	554,603	715,977	77.5%	A/A
2018 · Midterm	480,485	729,786	65.8%	C/A
2020 · Presidential	605,840	745,748	81.2%	A/A
2022 · Midterm	415,218	757,945	54.8%	A/A
2024 · Presidential	592,808	767,585	77.2%	A/A

Sources and methods

2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
2018: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 150/138.
2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.

presidential history

Margin, 1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876)

Presidential margin over time
Year	Margin (D minus R)
1892	+16.9%
1896	+5.8%
1900	+17.2%
1904	+29.1%
1908	+47.4%
1912	+60.2%
1916	+42.4%
1920	+23.3%
1924	+32.2%
1928	−34.2%
1932	+32.4%
1936	+29.4%
1940	+15.8%
1944	−6.1%
1948	−12.8%
1952	−21.9%
1956	−13.8%
1960	−3.6%
1964	+22.5%
1968	−10.8%
1972	−33.9%
1976	−8.9%
1980	−26.7%
1984	−26.1%
1988	−22.8%
1992	−2.7%
1996	−1.6%
2000	−1.4%
2004	+7.3%
2008	+21.2%
2012	+20.5%
2016	+35.8%
2020	+41.9%
2024	+34.7%

38 presidential elections

Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle; not shown when either cycle is estimated or under source review.
Year	Won	Democratic	Republican	Other	Margin	Swing	Total
2024	D	65.6%Harris386,438	30.9%Trump181,895	1.8%Stein10,662 +4	D+34.7	R+7.2	589,427
All 7 candidates in 2024 · 5 minor / independent Kamala D HarrisDemocratic65.6%386,438 Donald J TrumpRepublican30.9%181,895 Jill SteinIndependent1.8%10,662 OtherAll other candidates0.9%5,040 Chase OliverLibertarian0.5%2,898 Cornel R WestIndependent0.2%1,296 Claudia De La CruzIndependent0.2%1,198
2020	D	69.9%Biden419,943	28.0%Trump168,401	1.3%Jorgensen8,014	D+41.9	D+6.0	600,823
2016	D	64.4%Clinton355,133	28.6%Trump157,710	2.8%Johnson15,664	D+35.8	D+15.3	551,183
2012	D	59.6%Obama315,273	39.1%Romney206,773	1.4%	D+20.5	R+0.7	529,287
2008	D	60.1%Obama310,359	38.9%McCain200,994	0.9%	D+21.2	D+13.9	516,254
2004	D	53.2%Kerry245,671	45.9%Bush211,980	0.8%	D+7.3	D+8.7	461,379
2000	R	47.5%Gore196,501	48.9%Bush202,181	2.9%Nader12,201	R+1.4	D+0.2	413,775
1996	R	46.6%Clinton170,150	48.2%Dole176,033	4.4%Perot16,134	R+1.6	D+1.1	365,263
1992	R	41.6%Clinton160,186	44.3%Bush170,488	13.8%Perot53,012	R+2.7	D+20.1	385,218
1988	R	38.3%Dukakis125,711	61.1%Bush200,641	0.6%	R+22.8	D+3.2	328,365
1984	R	36.8%Mondale107,295	62.9%Reagan183,181	0.3%	R+26.1	D+0.6	291,298
1980	R	30.8%Carter73,734	57.4%Reagan137,620	11.8%	R+26.7	R+17.7	239,705
1976	R	44.7%Carter92,037	53.6%Ford110,424	1.7%	R+8.9	D+24.9	205,957
1972	R	32.4%McGovern54,844	66.3%Nixon112,135	1.3%	R+33.9	R+23.1	169,246
1968	R	38.2%Humphrey44,796	49.0%Nixon57,462	12.8%	R+10.8	R+33.3	117,319
1964	D	61.2%Johnson48,680	38.7%Goldwater30,755	0.1%	D+22.5	D+26.1	79,517
1960	R	48.1%Kennedy26,064	51.7%Nixon28,006	0.3%	R+3.6	D+10.2	54,219
1956	R	41.9%Stevenson15,633	55.7%Eisenhower20,761	2.3%	R+13.8	D+8.2	37,267
1952	R	39.0%Stevenson8,329	60.9%Eisenhower13,020	0.1%	R+21.9	R+9.2	21,379
1948	R	39.2%Truman3,719	52.0%Dewey4,930	8.9%	R+12.8	R+6.7	9,489
1944	R	46.8%Roosevelt3,582	52.8%Dewey4,046	0.4%	R+6.1	R+21.8	7,662
1940	D	57.7%Roosevelt3,263	41.9%Willkie2,371	0.5%	D+15.8	R+13.6	5,660
1936	D	64.3%Roosevelt2,913	35.0%Landon1,584	0.7%	D+29.4	R+3.0	4,527
1932	D	65.3%Roosevelt2,714	32.9%Hoover1,368	1.7%	D+32.4	D+66.6	4,154
1928	R	32.9%Smith1,229	67.1%Hoover2,507	0.0%	R+34.2	R+66.4	3,736
1924	D	62.2%Davis1,586	30.0%Coolidge765	7.6%La Follette195	D+32.2	D+8.8	2,550
1920	D	61.1%Cox1,598	37.7%Harding987	1.2%	D+23.3	R+19.1	2,617
1916	D	70.8%Wilson1,179	28.3%Hughes472	0.9%	D+42.4	R+17.7	1,666
1912	D	74.1%Wilson992	14.0%Taft187	11.9%	D+60.2	D+12.8	1,338
1908	D	73.3%Bryan1,143	25.9%Taft404	0.8%	D+47.4	D+18.3	1,560
1904	D	63.9%Parker774	34.8%Roosevelt422	1.2%	D+29.1	D+11.9	1,211
1900	D	58.4%Bryan2,135	41.2%McKinley1,507	0.4%	D+17.2	D+11.4	3,656
1896	D	52.5%Bryan2,109	46.7%McKinley1,877	0.7%	D+5.8	R+11.1	4,016
1892	D	58.1%Cleveland2,168	41.2%Harrison1,537	0.7%	D+16.9	—	3,730
1888	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—
1884	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—
1880	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—
1876	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—

McDowell County

LatestR+60.4in 2024

Population17,9432024 ACS

County seatWelchWV

Most similarBoone CountyWV · twin score 100.0

Key facts

2024 presidential margin: R+60.4MIT Election Lab
Population: 17,9432024 5-year
Population density: 34 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
Land area: 534 sq miTIGER/Line
Median household income: $31,5592024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic): 86.5%2024 5-year
Black: 8.8%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino: 2.1%2024 5-year
County seat: Welch
Peak Democratic margin: D+66.1 in 1964MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin: R+60.4 in 2024MIT Election Lab
Most similar: Boone County, WV · twin score 100.0

Participation

Midterm durability

Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.

2024 total turnout: 37.6%5,435 participants ÷ 14,439 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off: +22.4 ptsPersistently low turnout
Drop-off versus state: +1.0 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026 scenario: 15.3%–22.4%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast

Election	Participants	CVAP	Turnout	Quality
2016 · Presidential	6,371	16,201	39.3%	A/A
2018 · Midterm	4,716	15,112	31.2%	A/A
2020 · Presidential	6,527	14,234	45.9%	C/A
2022 · Midterm	3,481	14,817	23.5%	A/A
2024 · Presidential	5,435	14,439	37.6%	A/A

Sources and methods

2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
2020: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 152/2.
2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.

presidential history

Margin, 1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876)

Presidential margin over time
Year	Margin (D minus R)
1892	−35.1%
1896	−45.5%
1900	−51.0%
1904	−51.2%
1908	−52.4%
1912	−19.8%
1916	−31.4%
1920	−41.3%
1924	−34.8%
1928	−28.2%
1932	−13.0%
1936	+43.7%
1940	+27.5%
1944	+27.3%
1948	+37.7%
1952	+39.6%
1956	+20.5%
1960	+49.7%
1964	+66.1%
1968	+46.6%
1972	−13.5%
1976	+44.0%
1980	+42.7%
1984	+33.1%
1988	+48.8%
1992	+51.9%
1996	+54.1%
2000	+34.2%
2004	+23.8%
2008	+8.5%
2012	−29.9%
2016	−51.1%
2020	−58.4%
2024	−60.4%

38 presidential elections

Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle; not shown when either cycle is estimated or under source review.
Year	Won	Democratic	Republican	Other	Margin	Swing	Total
2024	R	19.1%Harris1,036	79.4%Trump4,310	1.0%Kennedy54 +2	R+60.4	R+1.9	5,425
All 5 candidates in 2024 · 3 minor / independent Donald J TrumpRepublican79.4%4,310 Kamala D HarrisDemocratic19.1%1,036 Robert F KennedyIndependent1.0%54 Chase OliverLibertarian0.3%15 Jill SteinIndependent0.2%10
2020	R	20.4%Biden1,333	78.9%Trump5,148	0.4%Jorgensen29	R+58.4	R+7.4	6,527
2016	R	23.0%Clinton1,438	74.1%Trump4,629	1.4%Johnson90	R+51.1	R+21.2	6,246
2012	R	34.1%Obama2,109	64.0%Romney3,959	1.9%	R+29.9	R+38.4	6,188
2008	D	53.3%Obama3,430	44.8%McCain2,882	1.8%	D+8.5	R+15.3	6,430
2004	D	61.7%Kerry4,501	37.8%Bush2,762	0.5%	D+23.8	R+10.4	7,299
2000	D	66.3%Gore4,845	32.2%Bush2,348	0.9%Nader67	D+34.2	R+19.9	7,303
1996	D	73.0%Clinton5,989	18.9%Dole1,550	8.0%Perot655	D+54.1	D+2.2	8,208
1992	D	71.8%Clinton7,019	19.8%Bush1,941	8.2%Perot803	D+51.9	D+3.1	9,781
1988	D	74.2%Dukakis7,204	25.4%Bush2,463	0.5%	D+48.8	D+15.7	9,714
1984	D	66.3%Mondale8,546	33.3%Reagan4,284	0.4%	D+33.1	R+9.7	12,883
1980	D	70.4%Carter9,822	27.7%Reagan3,862	1.9%	D+42.7	R+1.2	13,943
1976	D	72.0%Carter10,557	28.0%Ford4,107	0.0%	D+44.0	D+57.5	14,664
1972	R	43.2%McGovern6,811	56.8%Nixon8,942	0.0%	R+13.5	R+60.1	15,753
1968	D	67.8%Humphrey12,842	21.2%Nixon4,020	11.0%	D+46.6	R+19.5	18,937
1964	D	83.0%Johnson18,046	17.0%Goldwater3,684	0.0%	D+66.1	D+16.4	21,730
1960	D	74.8%Kennedy19,501	25.2%Nixon6,555	0.0%	D+49.7	D+29.2	26,056
1956	D	60.2%Stevenson16,865	39.8%Eisenhower11,138	0.0%	D+20.5	R+19.2	28,003
1952	D	69.8%Stevenson24,657	30.2%Eisenhower10,663	0.0%	D+39.6	D+1.9	35,320
1948	D	68.5%Truman21,545	30.8%Dewey9,687	0.8%	D+37.7	D+10.4	31,472
1944	D	63.6%Roosevelt19,300	36.4%Dewey11,023	0.0%	D+27.3	R+0.2	30,323
1940	D	63.7%Roosevelt24,449	36.3%Willkie13,906	0.0%	D+27.5	R+16.2	38,355
1936	D	71.8%Roosevelt25,471	28.1%Landon9,975	0.1%	D+43.7	D+56.7	35,481
1932	R	43.4%Roosevelt12,365	56.4%Hoover16,069	0.3%	R+13.0	D+15.2	28,514
1928	R	35.9%Smith8,294	64.0%Hoover14,810	0.1%	R+28.2	D+6.6	23,135
1924	R	28.2%Davis5,561	63.0%Coolidge12,422	8.9%	R+34.8	D+6.5	19,732
1920	R	29.3%Cox5,068	70.6%Harding12,198	0.1%	R+41.3	R+9.8	17,282
1916	R	34.2%Wilson3,692	65.6%Hughes7,086	0.2%	R+31.4	R+11.7	10,798
1912	R	26.8%Wilson2,497	46.5%Taft4,341	26.7%	R+19.8	D+32.6	9,327
1908	R	23.5%Bryan1,916	75.9%Taft6,176	0.6%	R+52.4	R+1.2	8,137
1904	R	24.2%Parker1,676	75.3%Roosevelt5,225	0.5%	R+51.2	R+0.2	6,937
1900	R	24.4%Bryan1,218	75.4%McKinley3,761	0.2%	R+51.0	R+5.5	4,990
1896	R	27.2%Bryan986	72.6%McKinley2,635	0.2%	R+45.5	R+10.3	3,627
1892	R	32.4%Cleveland607	67.6%Harrison1,265	0.0%	R+35.1	—	1,872
1888	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—
1884	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—
1880	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—
1876	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—

Biggest differences

Top 9 deltas, ranked by absolute magnitude.
Metric	Fairfax County	McDowell County
Population	1,147,837	17,943
Median household income	$153,637	$31,559
Latest presidential margin	D+34.7	R+60.4
White (non-Hispanic)	46.8%	86.5%
Poverty rate (overall)	5.9%	34.2%
Asian	19.9%	0.1%
Hispanic / Latino	17.6%	2.1%
Median age	39.1	43.7
Black	9.4%	8.8%