San Francisco County vs New York County

Side-by-side: the political memory, the demographic profile, and the deepest deltas between these two places.

San Francisco County

LatestD+64.8in 2024

Population830,2352024 ACS

County seatSan FranciscoCA

Most similarBaltimore cityMD · twin score 100.0

Key facts

2024 presidential margin: D+64.8MIT Election Lab
Population: 830,2352024 5-year
Population density: 17,778 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
Land area: 46.7 sq miTIGER/Line
Median household income: $140,9702024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic): 36.8%2024 5-year
Black: 4.7%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino: 16.2%2024 5-year
County seat: San Francisco
Peak Democratic margin: D+75.2 in 2016MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin: R+43.0 in 1920MIT Election Lab
Most similar: Baltimore city, MD · twin score 100.0

Participation

Midterm durability

Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.

2024 total turnout: 66.8%411,691 participants ÷ 616,394 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off: +20.0 ptsVolatile
Drop-off versus state: -6.0 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026 scenario: 46.8%–53.0%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast

Election	Participants	CVAP	Turnout	Quality
2016 · Presidential	414,528	627,262	66.1%	A/A
2018 · Midterm	378,374	646,545	58.5%	A/A
2020 · Presidential	450,262	652,668	69.0%	A/A
2022 · Midterm	310,456	633,652	49.0%	A/A
2024 · Presidential	411,691	616,394	66.8%	A/A

Sources and methods

2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.

presidential history

Margin, 1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876)

Presidential margin over time
Year	Margin (D minus R)
1876	−1.9%
1880	+5.8%
1884	−9.0%
1888	+5.4%
1892	+11.3%
1896	−0.6%
1900	−15.8%
1904	−33.3%
1908	−19.8%
1912	+48.4%
1916	+10.1%
1920	−43.0%
1924	−41.4%
1928	+0.3%
1932	+33.2%
1936	+49.3%
1940	+20.3%
1944	+21.6%
1948	+2.2%
1952	−5.9%
1956	−3.5%
1960	+16.0%
1964	+42.5%
1968	+25.5%
1972	+14.2%
1976	+11.7%
1980	+20.6%
1984	+35.9%
1988	+46.6%
1992	+54.6%
1996	+56.6%
2000	+59.4%
2004	+67.8%
2008	+70.3%
2012	+70.4%
2016	+75.2%
2020	+72.5%
2024	+64.8%

38 presidential elections

Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle; not shown when either cycle is estimated or under source review.
Year	Won	Democratic	Republican	Other	Margin	Swing	Total
2024	D	80.3%Harris323,719	15.5%Trump62,594	1.7%Stein6,896 +3	D+64.8	R+7.7	402,964
All 6 candidates in 2024 · 4 minor / independent Kamala D HarrisDemocratic80.3%323,719 Donald J TrumpRepublican15.5%62,594 Jill SteinIndependent1.7%6,896 Robert F Kennedy Jr.Independent1.1%4,239 Claudia De La CruzIndependent0.9%3,645 Chase OliverLibertarian0.5%1,871
2020	D	85.3%Biden378,156	12.7%Trump56,417	0.7%Jorgensen3,299	D+72.5	R+2.7	443,553
2016	D	84.5%Clinton345,084	9.2%Trump37,688	2.4%Stein9,904	D+75.2	D+4.9	408,541
2012	D	83.4%Obama301,723	13.0%Romney47,076	1.5%Stein5,494	D+70.4	D+0.1	361,795
2008	D	84.0%Obama322,220	13.6%McCain52,292	2.4%	D+70.3	D+2.5	383,796
2004	D	83.0%Kerry296,772	15.2%Bush54,355	1.8%	D+67.8	D+8.4	357,465
2000	D	75.5%Gore241,578	16.1%Bush51,496	7.8%Nader24,828	D+59.4	D+2.9	319,786
1996	D	72.2%Clinton209,777	15.7%Dole45,479	3.3%Perot9,659	D+56.6	D+2.0	290,385
1992	D	72.4%Clinton233,263	17.8%Bush57,352	9.0%Perot29,018	D+54.6	D+8.0	322,207
1988	D	72.8%Dukakis201,887	26.1%Bush72,503	1.1%	D+46.6	D+10.7	277,394
1984	D	67.4%Mondale193,278	31.4%Reagan90,219	1.2%	D+35.9	D+15.4	286,972
1980	D	52.4%Carter133,184	31.9%Reagan80,967	15.7%	D+20.6	D+8.8	254,028
1976	D	52.1%Carter133,733	40.3%Ford103,561	7.6%	D+11.7	R+2.5	256,888
1972	D	56.1%McGovern170,882	41.8%Nixon127,461	2.1%	D+14.2	R+11.3	304,770
1968	D	59.2%Humphrey177,509	33.7%Nixon100,970	7.2%	D+25.5	R+17.0	299,947
1964	D	71.2%Johnson230,758	28.7%Goldwater92,994	0.0%	D+42.5	D+26.5	323,908
1960	D	57.8%Kennedy197,734	41.8%Nixon143,001	0.4%	D+16.0	D+19.5	342,219
1956	R	48.0%Stevenson161,766	51.5%Eisenhower173,648	0.5%	R+3.5	D+2.4	336,967
1952	R	46.5%Stevenson167,282	52.4%Eisenhower188,531	1.1%	R+5.9	R+8.1	359,949
1948	D	47.8%Truman167,726	45.7%Dewey160,135	6.5%	D+2.2	R+19.4	350,709
1944	D	60.5%Roosevelt208,609	38.9%Dewey134,163	0.6%	D+21.6	D+1.3	344,731
1940	D	59.5%Roosevelt185,607	39.3%Willkie122,449	1.2%	D+20.3	R+29.1	311,878
1936	D	74.0%Roosevelt196,197	24.7%Landon65,436	1.3%	D+49.3	D+16.2	265,001
1932	D	64.6%Roosevelt144,236	31.4%Hoover70,152	3.9%	D+33.2	D+32.9	223,197
1928	D	49.4%Smith96,632	49.1%Hoover95,987	1.5%	D+0.3	D+41.7	195,468
1924	R	6.4%Davis9,811	47.7%Coolidge73,494	44.7%La Follette68,864	R+41.4	D+1.7	153,920
1920	R	22.1%Cox32,637	65.2%Harding96,105	12.7%	R+43.0	R+53.2	147,450
1916	D	52.4%Wilson78,225	42.3%Hughes63,093	5.3%	D+10.1	R+38.3	149,152
1912	O	48.4%Wilson48,953	0.0%Taft0	51.6%	Roosevelt +3.2	D+68.2	101,148
1908	R	35.4%Bryan21,260	55.2%Taft33,184	9.4%	R+19.8	D+13.5	60,124
1904	R	27.6%Parker18,027	60.9%Roosevelt39,816	11.6%	R+33.3	R+17.5	65,427
1900	R	39.9%Bryan25,212	55.7%McKinley35,208	4.4%	R+15.8	R+15.2	63,202
1896	R	48.6%Bryan30,649	49.2%McKinley31,041	2.2%	R+0.6	R+11.9	63,086
1892	D	53.1%Cleveland31,022	41.8%Harrison24,416	5.1%	D+11.3	D+5.9	58,435
1888	D	51.5%Cleveland28,699	46.1%Harrison25,708	2.4%	D+5.4	D+14.4	55,717
1884	R	44.4%Cleveland21,202	53.5%Blaine25,509	2.1%	R+9.0	R+14.8	47,719
1880	D	52.1%Hancock21,471	46.3%Garfield19,080	1.7%	D+5.8	D+7.7	41,239
1876	R	49.1%Tilden20,399	50.9%Hayes21,172	0.0%	R+1.9	—	41,572

New York County

LatestD+64.2in 2024

Population1,629,4772024 ACS

County seatNew YorkNY

Most similarDistrict of ColumbiaDC · twin score 100.0