- Lead
- 4,091
- Total
- 50,676
- vs nation
- R+6.6
Connecticut 31st State Senate District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 1,635
- Total
- 51,966
- vs nation
- R+7.6
- Lead
- 4,725
- Total
- 46,389
- vs nation
- R+12.3
- Lead
- 2,700
- Total
- 44,005
- vs nation
- R+10.0
- Lead
- 249
- Total
- 45,756
- vs nation
- R+6.7
- Lead
- 5,407
- Total
- 45,588
- vs nation
- R+9.4
- Lead
- 1,529
- Total
- 41,108
- vs nation
- R+4.2
- Lead
- 272
- Total
- 39,232
- vs nation
- R+9.2
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+8.1MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 99,7472024 5-year
- Population density
- 1,095 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 91.1 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $84,9262024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 76.2%2024 5-year
- Black
- 4.1%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 13.0%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+20.0 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+59.4 in 1896MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State Senate District 19, CT · twin score 91.3
presidential history
Party record book
Connecticut 31st State Senate District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
59.9%
19,828 votes · D+20.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 49.7%
Republican
William McKinley1896
77.5%
4,019 votes · R+59.4 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Warren G. Harding, 1920 · 72.8%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
24,710votes
47.6% of the vote · R+3.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 22,941 votes
Republican
Ronald Reagan1984
31,469votes
69.2% of the vote · R+38.8 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Richard Nixon, 1972 · 28,567 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
−2.5pts D vs U.S.
Place D+20.0 · U.S. D+22.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Al Gore, 2000 · −4.2 pts
Republican
William McKinley1896
+53.3pts R vs U.S.
Place R+59.4 · U.S. R+6.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Herbert Hoover, 1932 · +45.6 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | D | 59.5%28,466 | 40.5%19,413 | 47,879 |
| 2018 | D | 59.8%22,345 | 40.2%15,024 | 37,369 |
Connecticut 31st State Senate District sits in New England. In 2024 it voted Republican.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 20.0 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 59.4 points in 1896. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 4.9 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 8.1 points.
A population of 99,747, a 76% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $84,926 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State Senate District 19 and State Senate District 16.
The state-senate districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Connecticut 31st State Senate District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-upper/09031/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.