2026 Senate Forecast

Pete Ricketts (R)

Nebraska invented American populism. William Jennings Bryan ran three presidential campaigns from Lincoln railing against the gold standard and the monied interests; George Norris broke with his own party to create the nation's only nonpartisan unicameral legislature. That tradition has been dormant for decades, but Dan Osborn — a union president who led the 2021 Kellogg's strike and came within 7 points of unseating Deb Fischer while being massively outspent — is betting it still runs in the soil. He's not a Democrat; he's running as an Independent, with Nebraska Democrats clearing the field and endorsing him. His opponent is Pete Ricketts, a billionaire former governor who was appointed to the seat — the exact kind of figure Nebraska populists have been organizing against for 130 years. In a cycle where working-class frustration with both parties is at a peak, Osborn is the most interesting candidate in the country. Tilt I.

Open seat (Joni Ernst not running)

Ernst's retirement is a mixed bag for Democrats — she was unpopular enough to target, but her likely replacement is stronger. Hinson has won IA-02 three times and has Thune/Scott establishment backing. The Democratic primary is a classic electability-vs-base fight: Wahls leads polls (42-24 in GQR) but Polymarket heavily favors Turek (73% to Wahls' 20%), a two-time Paralympic gold medalist and state rep who won a Trump district. The electability case is clear — Hinson leads Wahls 48-41 but is tied with Turek at 46 — and national Democrats quietly back Turek (Scholten and Sage both endorsed him on exit). Iowa has drifted hard right (Trump +8 in 2020, +13 in 2024), so Democrats need a strong nominee and a strong environment. They may get both. Tilt R.

John Cornyn (R)

Democrats got the matchup they wanted. Talarico defeated Crockett 52-47 in the March 4 primary, and the Republican side is headed to a May 26 runoff between Cornyn (43%) and Paxton (41%) — a fight that has already cost $122M in ad spending and will drain GOP resources through late spring. Talarico is a 36-year-old former middle school teacher running a populist, faith-based campaign without the baggage of a DC record. Trump won Texas by 14 in 2024, but a Cornyn-Paxton runoff guarantees months of intra-party warfare, and the 2026 national environment heavily favors Democrats. Texas still requires everything to break right, but this is now a real race. Tilt R.

Open seat (Gary Peters not running)

Peters' retirement makes this one of Democrats' most vulnerable seats — one of two they defend in states Trump carried in 2024. The Democratic primary is wide open: Polymarket favors McMorrow (56%) over Stevens (22%) and El-Sayed, but Emerson polling shows 38% undecided with the top three separated by 6 points. Rogers is the strongest recruit Republicans could ask for — he lost to Slotkin by just 1 point in 2024 even as Trump carried the state, and notably ran only slightly behind Trump in Dearborn, showing limited downballot Democratic loyalty there. He has Thune and NRSC backing, though Huizenga may force a contested primary. But 2026's national environment makes an R win in Michigan a tough climb for anyone. Lean D.

Susan Collins (R)

Collins defied every 2020 poll and won by 9, but she ran 15 points below her 2014 number, and the last Republican senator from New England is now the most vulnerable R incumbent on the board. Mills was Schumer's dream recruit, but the Democratic primary has broken decisively toward Platner — Polymarket gives him 74% over Mills (26%), and UNH polling shows him at 64-26 among primary voters. Platner, a Marine veteran and oysterman running on economic populism, leads Collins 49-38 in head-to-head polling and holds a 9-point edge among independents. Mills polls to a dead heat with Collins but is dragged down by 49% gubernatorial disapproval (an all-time high in UNH polling). Platner had early controversies — inflammatory posts, staff departures — but his numbers have only grown since. The Senate Leadership Fund has pledged $42M to defend the seat. In a neutral environment Collins would be favored; in 2026's environment she is not. Lean D.

Dan Sullivan (R)

Peltola lost her 2024 House race by just 1 point in a state Trump carried by 13 — a massive overperformance that makes her a formidable Senate recruit. Sullivan won re-election by 13 in 2020, but he's never faced a candidate with Peltola's crossover appeal and name recognition among Alaska Natives and rural voters. She'll face a similarly strong opponent in a much more favorable national environment than 2024, though Alaska's idiosyncratic politics mean national trends don't always translate here. Ranked-choice voting gives Peltola a structural advantage by consolidating moderate votes. Lean D.

Open seat

Brown lost his 2024 race by 4 points to Moreno, but he was running against a strong first-time candidate in a Trump+11 state — his actual overperformance against partisan lean was about 7 points. Husted is a weaker opponent: he's a career politician (Secretary of State, Lt. Governor) with no personal brand beyond Columbus insider status. Brown has the economic populist message ('dignity of work') that plays in the Mahoning Valley and suburban Cuyahoga, and a midterm environment should add 3-5 points to the Democratic baseline. Ohio is still a red-leaning state, but Brown's unique coalition of union voters, Black turnout in Cleveland and Columbus, and suburban moderates makes this a genuine pickup opportunity.

Roger Marshall (R)

Marshall is the most vulnerable Safe R incumbent on the board — his approval is underwater even among Kansas Republicans after his election denialism and erratic behavior. The 2022 abortion referendum was seismic: 59% voted to protect abortion rights in a state Trump won by 16, proving Kansas has a massive moderate bloc willing to cross party lines. Without Sharice Davids (who keeps winning KS-03 by double digits), the current D field of Christy Davis and Patrick Schmidt lacks star power. If Davids jumps in, this moves to Tilt D instantly. As-is, Marshall's personal weakness keeps it at Lean R rather than Safe.

Jon Ossoff (D)

Trump carried Georgia by 2.2 points in 2024, making this one of two Democratic-held seats in Trump-won states. But 2026's national environment heavily favors Democrats, and Ossoff enters with $25M cash on hand — more than any incumbent senator in a competitive race. The GOP primary is unsettled: Polymarket gives Collins 76% to win the nomination over Kemp-backed Dooley (16%), while Trump has stayed out. Head-to-head polls show single-digit margins against all Republican contenders, but a well-funded incumbent in a favorable midterm year is the clear favorite. Likely D.

Open seat (Jeanne Shaheen not running)

Shaheen's retirement opens NH's first Senate vacancy since 2010, but Pappas starts in a strong position — he represents half the state in NH-01, outraised both Republican candidates combined in Q4 2025, and leads all GOP contenders in head-to-head polling. Sununu (82% on Polymarket) has Trump's endorsement and NRSC backing for the primary, but Brown is staying in, forcing a bruising contest through the late September 8 primary while Pappas runs unopposed. Sununu hasn't won an election in nearly two decades, and Trump's endorsement may help him in the primary but complicates his general election pitch in a state that went for Harris. NH independents who want to vote for an idiosyncratic Republican will have Ayotte on the ballot for governor — that valve makes ticket-splitting toward the Senate Democrat easier, not harder. Likely D.

Steve Daines (R)

Daines chairs the NRSC and is one of Trump's closest Senate allies — he ran the committee that flipped the Senate in 2024. Montana has shifted decisively right: Tester lost by 7 in 2024 after surviving by just 4 in 2018, and the state went for Trump by 20. The only wildcard is Seth Bodnar, the University of Montana president (West Point grad, Army Ranger, Rhodes Scholar) who's exploring an Independent run with Tester's quiet backing. An Independent candidacy could scramble the math, but Daines starts with a massive structural advantage in a state that's gone red by double digits in every presidential race since 2004. Likely R.

Open seat

Moody was appointed to Rubio's seat and has the advantage of incumbency but no electoral track record beyond her AG races. Florida's media markets are brutally expensive (Miami, Tampa, Orlando, Jacksonville) and Democrats have been burned here repeatedly — DeSantis won by 19 in 2022, Trump by 13 in 2024. Vindman has national name recognition from the first Trump impeachment and can fundraise off it, but Florida has shifted from purple to solidly red in the post-Obama era. If Trump's approval craters below 35% nationally this becomes competitive; otherwise, Democrats are throwing money into a furnace. The math only works in a catastrophic GOP environment.