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explore / Contest Page
Read the current us senate state first, then inspect ratings, polling, markets, fundraising, and history for Florida in one evidence flow.
Evidence & provenance
Source owners
Akashic Edge race ratings, polling ingests, Polymarket odds, fundraising files, and U.S. Census context.
Freshness
Rendered Apr 14, 2026 from the latest stored polling, market, and race-rating snapshots.
Boundary scope
2026 statewide race page for the current state and office only.
Claim type
Manual race ratings, stored live-market snapshots, polling context, and deterministic demographic history.
Polling and market panels fail closed. If a feed is missing or stale, this page states that directly instead of implying current coverage.
Moody was appointed to Rubio's seat and has the advantage of incumbency but no electoral track record beyond her AG races. Florida's media markets are brutally expensive (Miami, Tampa, Orlando, Jacksonville) and Democrats have been burned here repeatedly — DeSantis won by 19 in 2022, Trump by 13 in 2024. Vindman has national name recognition from the first Trump impeachment and can fundraise off it, but Florida has shifted from purple to solidly red in the post-Obama era. If Trump's approval craters below 35% nationally this becomes competitive; otherwise, Democrats are throwing money into a furnace. The math only works in a catastrophic GOP environment.
Updated 2026-03-03
Will Jared Moskowitz be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Florida?
Data from Polymarket prediction markets
Will A.C. Toulme be the Republican nominee for Senate in Florida?
Data from Polymarket prediction markets