explore / Contest Page
Read the current us senate state first, then inspect ratings, polling, markets, fundraising, and history for Alaska in one evidence flow.
Evidence & provenance
Source owners
Akashic Edge race ratings, polling ingests, Polymarket odds, fundraising files, and U.S. Census context.
Freshness
Rendered Apr 14, 2026 from the latest stored polling, market, and race-rating snapshots.
Boundary scope
2026 statewide race page for the current state and office only.
Claim type
Manual race ratings, stored live-market snapshots, polling context, and deterministic demographic history.
Polling and market panels fail closed. If a feed is missing or stale, this page states that directly instead of implying current coverage.
Peltola lost her 2024 House race by just 1 point in a state Trump carried by 13 — a massive overperformance that makes her a formidable Senate recruit. Sullivan won re-election by 13 in 2020, but he's never faced a candidate with Peltola's crossover appeal and name recognition among Alaska Natives and rural voters. She'll face a similarly strong opponent in a much more favorable national environment than 2024, though Alaska's idiosyncratic politics mean national trends don't always translate here. Ranked-choice voting gives Peltola a structural advantage by consolidating moderate votes. Lean D.
Updated 2026-03-03