explore / Contest Page
Read the current us senate state first, then inspect ratings, polling, markets, fundraising, and history for Montana in one evidence flow.
Evidence & provenance
Source owners
Akashic Edge race ratings, polling ingests, Polymarket odds, fundraising files, and U.S. Census context.
Freshness
Rendered Apr 14, 2026 from the latest stored polling, market, and race-rating snapshots.
Boundary scope
2026 statewide race page for the current state and office only.
Claim type
Manual race ratings, stored live-market snapshots, polling context, and deterministic demographic history.
Polling and market panels fail closed. If a feed is missing or stale, this page states that directly instead of implying current coverage.
Daines chairs the NRSC and is one of Trump's closest Senate allies — he ran the committee that flipped the Senate in 2024. Montana has shifted decisively right: Tester lost by 7 in 2024 after surviving by just 4 in 2018, and the state went for Trump by 20. The only wildcard is Seth Bodnar, the University of Montana president (West Point grad, Army Ranger, Rhodes Scholar) who's exploring an Independent run with Tester's quiet backing. An Independent candidacy could scramble the math, but Daines starts with a massive structural advantage in a state that's gone red by double digits in every presidential race since 2004. Likely R.
Updated 2026-03-04