Gary Peters (D) retiring
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Read the current us senate state first, then inspect ratings, polling, markets, fundraising, and history for Michigan in one evidence flow.
Evidence & provenance
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Akashic Edge race ratings, polling ingests, Polymarket odds, fundraising files, and U.S. Census context.
Freshness
Rendered Apr 14, 2026 from the latest stored polling, market, and race-rating snapshots.
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2026 statewide race page for the current state and office only.
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Manual race ratings, stored live-market snapshots, polling context, and deterministic demographic history.
Polling and market panels fail closed. If a feed is missing or stale, this page states that directly instead of implying current coverage.
Peters' retirement makes this one of Democrats' most vulnerable seats — one of two they defend in states Trump carried in 2024. The Democratic primary is wide open: Polymarket favors McMorrow (56%) over Stevens (22%) and El-Sayed, but Emerson polling shows 38% undecided with the top three separated by 6 points. Rogers is the strongest recruit Republicans could ask for — he lost to Slotkin by just 1 point in 2024 even as Trump carried the state, and notably ran only slightly behind Trump in Dearborn, showing limited downballot Democratic loyalty there. He has Thune and NRSC backing, though Huizenga may force a contested primary. But 2026's national environment makes an R win in Michigan a tough climb for anyone. Lean D.
Updated 2026-03-03