explore / Contest Page
Read the current us senate state first, then inspect ratings, polling, markets, fundraising, and history for Kansas in one evidence flow.
Evidence & provenance
Source owners
Akashic Edge race ratings, polling ingests, Polymarket odds, fundraising files, and U.S. Census context.
Freshness
Rendered Apr 14, 2026 from the latest stored polling, market, and race-rating snapshots.
Boundary scope
2026 statewide race page for the current state and office only.
Claim type
Manual race ratings, stored live-market snapshots, polling context, and deterministic demographic history.
Polling and market panels fail closed. If a feed is missing or stale, this page states that directly instead of implying current coverage.
Marshall is the most vulnerable Safe R incumbent on the board — his approval is underwater even among Kansas Republicans after his election denialism and erratic behavior. The 2022 abortion referendum was seismic: 59% voted to protect abortion rights in a state Trump won by 16, proving Kansas has a massive moderate bloc willing to cross party lines. Without Sharice Davids (who keeps winning KS-03 by double digits), the current D field of Christy Davis and Patrick Schmidt lacks star power. If Davids jumps in, this moves to Tilt D instantly. As-is, Marshall's personal weakness keeps it at Lean R rather than Safe.
Updated 2026-02-25
Will Patrick Schmidt be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?
Data from Polymarket prediction markets