2026 Governor Forecast

Open seat (Laura Kelly not running)

Kansas is the sleeper race of the cycle. Kelly proved a Democrat can win here twice, endorsed Corson, and remains widely popular. Corson raised $903K in 2025 and is campaigning on kitchen-table issues — eliminating the food sales tax, cutting property taxes — that play well across party lines. The D primary between Corson and Holscher ($398K) has 58% undecided (PPP Jan 2026). The GOP primary is a seven-way brawl dominated by self-funders: Sarnecki ($2.53M, $2M self-loan), Colyer ($2.07M, $1.06M self-loan), Schwab ($1.4M, $1.05M self-loan), and Masterson ($687K plus a dark-money nonprofit). Name ID: Colyer 35%, Schwab 29%, Masterson 25%. The 2022 abortion referendum showed Kansas voters will break from the party when motivated. In a strong D environment with a fractured and bruised GOP nominee, I'd narrowly rather be the Democrat.

Open seat (Mike Dunleavy not running)

Alaska's first open-seat gubernatorial race under ranked-choice voting now has 16 candidates and the dynamics have shifted. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins raised $750K in his first two weeks, instantly becoming the top Democratic fundraiser, while Begich has $348K raised with $215K on hand. Dahlstrom — supposedly the GOP establishment pick — has raised just $18K with $5K cash, making her a paper candidate. Republican Matt Heilala leads overall fundraising at $1.3M (mostly self-funded). Data for Progress RCV simulations show Begich could win the general by picking up moderate Republican second-choice votes. Peltola now appears headed toward a Senate run rather than governor. A second ballot measure to repeal RCV will appear on the 2026 ballot (the 2024 repeal failed by just 743 votes). The fragmented 16-candidate field under RCV makes this genuinely competitive.

Kelly Ayotte (R)

Ayotte's numbers have deteriorated sharply since taking office. The February UNH poll shows her approval at 47-47 (net +0), down from +9 at inauguration, with only 88% of Republicans behind her (down from 93%) and just 9% of Democrats. Only 41% say she deserves another term vs. 38% who say no. The ICE detention facility fight in Merrimack has drawn protests from both sides and appears to be dragging her numbers. Warmington entered on February 18 with a focus on affordability and opposing school vouchers. New Hampshire has voted Democratic for president since 2004 and the midterm environment helps. This was Tilt R when Ayotte looked like a popular moderate governor — her approval trajectory is moving this toward Toss Up.

Open seat (Brian Kemp not running)

Democrats' best gubernatorial pickup opportunity. Bottoms dominates the D primary (Polymarket 70%) with a Medicaid expansion + free community college platform that plays well in metro Atlanta. The GOP primary has been upended by Rick Jackson, a billionaire healthcare executive pledging $50M of his own money — he leads Quantus polling at 33% to Burt Jones's 16%, despite entering in February. Jones has Trump's endorsement but remember: Trump's 2022 picks for governor, AG, and SOS all lost their primaries to Kemp's slate. Without Kemp's unique crossover appeal on the ballot, Democrats flipped two Public Service Commission seats with 63% in November 2025. Trump won Georgia by just 2 in 2024, making it one of the closest states in the country, and a bruising GOP primary between a self-funding outsider and a Trump-endorsed insider could leave the nominee damaged heading into a favorable D environment.

Open seat (Gretchen Whitmer not running)

Duggan's independent bid makes this three-way race genuinely unpredictable. February polling shows Benson 39%, James 36%, Duggan 20% — but Duggan draws slightly more from Democrats than Republicans. Benson has $3.6M cash on hand vs. James's $2.5M, and Democratic enthusiasm is at 87% vs. 72% for Republicans (a huge red flag for the GOP). Whitmer won this seat by 11 and 10 points in 2018 and 2022 respectively, and the midterm environment tilts it further left. James has lost two Senate races already — I don't think the third time is the charm running for a different office.

Open seat (Tony Evers not running)

Wisconsin is the ultimate tossup state — presidential races decided by less than a point in 2016, 2020, and 2024, and Evers won his first term by just 1.1 points. The Marquette February poll shows the D primary wide open: Hong 11%, Barnes 10%, Rodriguez 6%, Crowley 3%, with 65% undecided. Rodriguez has the strongest institutional backing ($2M DLGA independent expenditure plus AFSCME) despite lagging in polls. Barnes raised $556K in one month from 3,790 donations but his 2022 Senate loss haunts the electability argument. Tiffany is effectively uncontested in the GOP primary at 35% after Trump's endorsement cleared the field, though 63% of R voters remain undecided. Cook rates this Toss Up. The environment gives Democrats the edge, but this is Wisconsin — nothing is safe.

Joe Lombardo (R)

Lombardo and Ford are dead-tied at 41-41 in the December Emerson poll, with 18% undecided and Lombardo's own approval underwater (34/36). Lombardo has a slight edge among independents (+8) and Trump's endorsement, but Trump is 15 points underwater in Nevada, making that endorsement a mixed bag. Ford leads with Hispanic voters by 16 points and women by 5. The critical asymmetry is money: Lombardo has $15M across his campaign and two PACs vs. Ford's $1.5M cash on hand — a 10:1 advantage. The top voter issues — cost of living (39%), housing affordability (16%), jobs — all cut against the incumbent. Nevada hasn't reelected a governor since 2006. Cook rates this Toss Up. Ford needs to close the fundraising gap fast or the environment won't matter.

Open seat (Ron DeSantis not running)

Donalds has $31M and Trump's endorsement, and the February JMI poll shows him leading Jolly 41-36 with independent Jason Pizzo at 6%. That's tighter than the October UNF poll (45-34). Mason-Dixon's February GOP primary has Donalds at 37% with 49% undecided — commanding but not yet sealed. The D primary is wide open: Jolly leads Demings 23-19 (Mason-Dixon Jan) with 58% undecided, though PPP has them tied 22-22. Democrats nominated former-R Charlie Crist in 2022 and lost badly, so the Jolly "party-switcher" liability is real. Florida hasn't elected a Democratic governor since 1994, and housing costs, property insurance, and property taxes are the top voter concerns — issues that cut against the incumbent party but not enough to overcome R+13 structural headwinds.

Katie Hobbs (D)

Hobbs is nobody's idea of an electoral juggernaut — she won by less than a point in 2022 and her approval sits at a mediocre 39-40. But the national environment does the heavy lifting here. Arizona went for Trump by 5.5 in 2024, yet midterm electorates are structurally different, and the likely GOP nominee is Andy Biggs, a Freedom Caucus hardliner whose general election ceiling is low. A January 2026 Center for Excellence poll has Hobbs leading Biggs 50-41 among likely voters, a gap that's widened from a dead heat in the December Emerson poll. Biggs dominates the GOP primary at 50% with Trump's endorsement, but that same endorsement is a liability with the suburban Maricopa moderates who decide Arizona statewide races. Hobbs doesn't need to be great — she just needs the environment and an unfavorable opponent, and she has both.

Open seat (Kim Reynolds not running)

Sand has been building to this moment his whole career. He raised $18M total cycle with $13.2M cash on hand — shattering every Iowa fundraising record — with 36,609 unique Iowa donors including 1,200 registered Republicans. A D-aligned October poll shows him leading Feenstra 45-43 with 62% of independents. Feenstra raised a record $4.3M for a Republican but faces serious grassroots resistance: February precinct caucus straw polls had him at just 14%, behind Adam Steen (36%) and Brad Sherman (31%). Bob Vander Plaats/Family Leader endorsed Steen. Iowa has been hit hard by tariffs, both Ernst and Reynolds declined to run for reelection, and Sand has surprisingly strong appeal among independents. Cook rates this Lean R, but the Feenstra primary vulnerability and Sand's fundraising dominance make this the best Democratic pickup opportunity in any red state.

Open seat (Mike DeWine not running)

Acton surged to 46-45 over Ramaswamy in the December Emerson poll, a 7-point swing since August, driven by a massive shift among women (56-37 Acton, up from a tie). Her net favorability is +14 vs. Ramaswamy's +1, and among independents she leads by 21 points. But the money gap is staggering: Ramaswamy has raised ~$20M with $12.9M cash on hand plus an $18.6M Super PAC (V PAC), while Acton has raised $5.3M (a Dem off-year record) with ~$3M cash. Even DeWine questioned whether Ramaswamy wants to be governor or "a national political celebrity." RCP average: Ramaswamy +1.0. Running mates: Ramaswamy chose Senate President Rob McColley; Acton chose former ODP chair David Pepper. This is shaping up to be the most expensive governor's race in Ohio history.

Jim Pillen (R)

Pillen has a $10M+ war chest and no serious opposition after Charles Herbster declined to file on the March 2 deadline, citing an inability to find enough donors willing to publicly oppose the incumbent. Nebraska is solidly red with a 2:1 GOP registration advantage, and Democrats haven't won this office since Ben Nelson in 1998. Lynne Walz is a credible state legislator but would need a perfect storm to compete. Cook rates this Solid R. Pillen's vulnerability was always within his own party — and that threat just evaporated.