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Ancestry atlasOther Latinofine_ancestry

Spaniard

2024 ecological estimate

D+2.1High confidence

Range R+2.7 to D+4.5

Ecological pattern, not individual behavior. Reflects patterns in counties where this ancestry group concentrates — not a claim about individual voters.

Modeled margin trajectory

v1-public-release-2000-2024
200002024
Open in explorerOpen in CartographerOpen JSON

Strongest places

Where this group lives the densest.

The single state, county, and media market with the highest share of population. The bar underneath shows how concentrated each place is against the U.S. baseline.

Strongest state

1 of 51

New Mexico

3.6%of population
Concentration11.90× U.S. avg

Strongest county

1 of 3,143

Taos, NM

9.5%of population
Concentration31.63× U.S. avg

Strongest media market

1 of 210

Albuquerque-Santa Fe

3.5%of population
Concentration11.63× U.S. avg
Dossier navigation
PoliticsCorrelationProvenanceTrustNationalIntensityWorkbenchHistorianStatesCountiesMedia marketsFull explorerOutliersPolitics tableDemographicsPeersMethod
ELIGIBLEU.S. 0.3%2024 D+2.1

Modeled margin over time

Trajectory by election year

Each bar shows the modeled county-weighted margin and its variant range across county / state / region aggregations where available.

2024D+2.1
High
2020D+8.1
High
2016D+5.5
High
2012D+6.4
High
2008D+9.8
High
2004R+1.1
High
2000D+1.3
High
R+13EvenD+13
Election correlation scatter

Spaniard share vs 2024 presidential margin

Pearson r = 0.485Sample: 91 countiesFilter: group share ≥ 1% and total votes ≥ 500. Point size scales with county population.

How this was modeled

High confidence
Model v1-public-release-2000-2024Updated 2024 election yearCoverage County-level U.S. + 120th Congress districts

Measurement

Share of total population reporting this ancestry group (ACS 2024 5-year).

Political model

Multi-scale ecological average (county + state + region), weighted by total votes × group share.

Source chain

ACS 2024 5-year (B04006/B03001/B02015)Akashic mv_two_party_margin
Open methodology
Ecological pattern — how to read this

Reflects patterns in counties where this ancestry group concentrates — not a claim about individual voters.

Values are derived by joining ACS 2024 5-year estimates (B04006 + B03001 + B02015/16/20) with certified election results at the county level. That means we know what counties with more or fewer of this group did — not how any individual voted.

This is known as ecological inference. It is a valid way to surface geographic correlation but must not be read as a personal-vote claim about anyone in the group.

Trust and evidence scope

Release status, source chain, and modeling boundaries.

Every dossier declares what is published, where the data comes from, and where modeled geography stops short of observed individual behavior.

Release status

ELIGIBLE

Search-indexed public release in the current dossier set.

Political basis

Latest 2024

Latest modeled series: 2024 D+2.1, high.

Source chain

  • 01Footprint source: ACS 2024 ancestry fields from demographics_ancestry.
  • 02Politics source window: presidential model output spanning 2000 through 2024 from the latest completed ancestry_vote_estimates run.
  • 03Release policy: public-release dossiers are indexed; experimental dossiers remain labeled and excluded from search indexing.
  • 04Interpretation: modeled political geography, not observed individual vote behavior.
Open methodology

National benchmark

The U.S. baseline every ranking is measured against.

These are the base U.S. measures used for over-indexing and geography rankings across the dossier.

Share of population

0.3%

Pop × U.S. baseline: 1.00×

Availability

Nation, state, county, metro, DMA

Metro and DMA rankings are live. Future tabs stay hidden until dedicated rollups are ready.

County intensity map

Where Spaniard concentrates

Darker = higher share of the county population.

Spaniard share of county population

2,175 of 3,143 counties covered(69%)

0.04%
0.20%
13.8%
No dataU.S. average: 0.32%

Explorer handoff

Open the map-first explorer.

The embedded workbench keeps the map, rankings, and dossier context aligned while preserving the same explorer workflow used across place-first analysis.

Where this is strongest

Map the footprint directly inside the dossier.

Use the same layer contract as the main explorer to inspect spaniard across states, counties, metros, and media markets without leaving the dossier.

Open full explorer
Counties
Counties ranked by share of population, with presidential context shown only as place-level backdrop.
0 ranked
Loading explorer layer…
Rankings
Population share
RankPlaceValuePres. context
Selected place
Select a place from the map or rankings table to inspect it.
Strongest county
Taos, NM
Strongest state
New Mexico
Strongest DMA
Albuquerque-Santa Fe
Historian
Group-context prompts

Use the dossier’s strongest places and modeled geography context as a starting point for a deeper analysis.

Top counties
Top counties for Spaniard ancestry
Top states
Top states for Spaniard ancestry
Political lean
Most democratic counties with Spaniard ancestry in New Mexico
Swing counties
Swing counties with Spaniard ancestry

Top states

The states with the highest concentration.

Population-ranked state concentrations for the public dossier view.

10 rows
#GeographyShare of populationPop × U.S.
01New Mexico
3.6%
11.90×
02Colorado
1.0%
3.20×
03Hawaii
0.7%
2.23×
04Arizona
0.5%
1.63×
05District of Columbia
0.5%
1.60×
06Utah
0.5%
1.50×
07California
0.4%
1.47×
08Nevada
0.4%
1.47×
09Wyoming
0.4%
1.43×
10Texas
0.4%
1.37×

Top counties

County leaders ordered by share of population.

County concentrations ordered by share of population, with adherent share paired where available.

25 rows
#GeographyShare of populationPop × U.S.
01Taos, NM
9.5%
31.63×
02Costilla, CO
9.3%
31.07×
03San Miguel, NM
9.1%
30.23×
04Cibola, NM
7.0%
23.23×
05Quay, NM
6.5%
21.67×
06Santa Fe, NM
5.4%
18.07×
07Castro, TX
5.4%
17.87×
08Valencia, NM
5.0%
16.77×
09Camas, ID
4.5%
14.83×
10Colfax, NM
4.3%
14.40×
11Saguache, CO
4.2%
13.93×
12Bernalillo, NM
4.1%
13.73×
13Sandoval, NM
4.0%
13.17×
14Guadalupe, NM
3.9%
13.10×
15Otero, NM
3.4%
11.47×
16Hale, TX
3.2%
10.53×
17Union, NM
3.1%
10.23×
18Las Animas, CO
3.0%
10.17×
19Pueblo, CO
3.0%
9.83×
20White Pine, NV
2.8%
9.27×
21Brewster, TX
2.7%
9.13×
22Hall, TX
2.7%
9.00×
23Kiowa, CO
2.7%
8.97×
24Wilbarger, TX
2.7%
8.87×
25Dona Ana, NM
2.6%
8.63×

Top media markets

Highest-concentration DMAs.

DMA rankings extend the dossier beyond counties while preserving the same measurement grammar.

15 rows
#GeographyShare of populationPop × U.S.
01Albuquerque-Santa Fe
3.5%
11.63×
02Colorado Springs-Pueblo
1.2%
4.07×
03Victoria
1.1%
3.63×
04Denver
0.9%
3.00×
05Amarillo
0.9%
2.93×
06El Paso (Las Cruces)
0.9%
2.90×
07San Antonio
0.8%
2.50×
08Grand Junction-Montrose
0.7%
2.30×
09Honolulu
0.7%
2.23×
10Lubbock
0.7%
2.17×
11Monterey-Salinas
0.6%
2.10×
12Miami-Ft. Lauderdale
0.6%
2.07×
13Cheyenne-Scottsbluff
0.6%
2.03×
14Tucson (Sierra Vista)
0.6%
2.03×
15Chico-Redding
0.6%
1.97×

Full ranked explorer

Search the entire geography set.

Open the full geography table with the same measurement rules and public dossier hierarchy preserved.

Full geography explorer

50+ ranked geographies

Unlock searchable state, county, metro, and DMA rankings for this group.

Unlock with Pro$33/mo

Residuals

Over-indexed but politically unusual.

High-footprint counties where the 2024 presidential margin diverges most from this group's latest published national modeled pattern.

CountyFootprint2024 actualModeledResidual
Sherman, TX1.4%R+88.1D+2.1R+90.2
Sterling, TX0.6%R+85.8D+2.1R+88.0
Dewey, OK1.4%R+80.1D+2.1R+82.2
Coke, TX2.4%R+79.6D+2.1R+81.7
Lipscomb, TX1.2%R+79.6D+2.1R+81.7
Piute, UT1.7%R+78.4D+2.1R+80.5
Harper, OK0.6%R+78.4D+2.1R+80.5
Hitchcock, NE0.6%R+78.0D+2.1R+80.0
Collingsworth, TX2.5%R+77.5D+2.1R+79.6
Runnels, TX1.6%R+77.1D+2.1R+79.2
Gray, TX0.8%R+77.1D+2.1R+79.2
Mills, TX1.7%R+76.9D+2.1R+79.0
  • 01County candidates come from the top 250 counties ranked by footprint share inside this dossier.
  • 02Actual context is the 2024 presidential margin for each county, computed as (Dem - Rep) / total votes * 100.
  • 03Modeled baseline is the latest published ancestry-model national Democratic margin for this group.
  • 04Residual = county actual margin minus the modeled baseline; rows rank by absolute residual with footprint share as the tiebreaker.
  • 05This module describes modeled geography versus county election results, not individual behavior.

Full politics table

Every election year with method detail.

Includes all modeled years, CI bounds, and the model version responsible for each row.

Full politics detail

Unlock the full election-year table, CI bounds, method labels, and model metadata.

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High-concentration demographics

Where Spaniard concentrates most

Population-weighted averages across the top-quartile counties by Spaniard share (543 counties). Each metric pairs the group-weighted value with the U.S. population-weighted baseline.
Median household income
$94,657
U.S. $84,518 · ▲ +$10,139 vs U.S.
Bachelor's+ attainment
38.4%
U.S. 35.6% · ▲ +2.8pt vs U.S.
Median age
38.3 yrs
U.S. 39.1 yrs · ▼ -0.8 yrs vs U.S.

Method and export

Methodology and exports.

Public notes on source tables, measurement scope, modeling boundaries, and exportability.

  1. 01

    Ancestry footprint metrics use ACS 2024 source columns mapped from the canonical ancestry taxonomy.

  2. 02

    Public geography tables rank states and counties by share of total population reporting the ancestry.

  3. 03

    State and national ancestry shares are weighted from county populations whenever a direct aggregate row is unavailable.

  4. 04

    Political timelines use the latest completed ancestry model run and surface model version plus confidence labels directly.

  5. 05

    Indexed public-release dossiers remain search-visible; experimental dossiers stay public in the atlas but noindex until promoted.

  6. 06

    These pages describe modeled voting patterns, not direct measures of individual behavior.

Exports

Unlock JSON, CSV, XLSX, and PDF export controls for this dossier.

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