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Muslim

2024 ecological estimate

D+25.0High confidence
Ecological pattern, not individual behavior. Reflects patterns in counties where this religious tradition concentrates — not a claim about individual voters.

Modeled margin trajectory

legacy-msoa-calibrated-v1
201602024

Strongest places

Where this group lives the densest.

The single state, county, and media market with the highest share of population. The bar underneath shows how concentrated each place is against the U.S. baseline.

Dossier navigation
PUBLISHEDU.S. <0.1%Adherents <0.1%2024 D+25.0

Modeled margin over time

Trajectory by election year

Each bar shows the modeled county-weighted margin and its variant range across county / state / region aggregations where available.

2024D+25.0
High
2020D+32.5
Medium
2016D+37.5
Low
R+38EvenD+38

How this was modeled

High confidence
Model legacy-msoa-calibrated-v1Updated 2024 election yearCoverage County-level U.S. (3,143 counties)

Measurement

Share of total population identifying with this tradition (2020 Religion Census).

Political model

Multi-scale ecological average (county + state + region), weighted by total votes × group share.

Source chain

U.S. Religion Census 2020Akashic mv_two_party_margin
Open methodology
Ecological pattern — how to read this

Reflects patterns in counties where this religious tradition concentrates — not a claim about individual voters.

Values are derived by joining Religion Census 2020 (U.S. Religion Data Archive) with certified election results at the county level. That means we know what counties with more or fewer of this group did — not how any individual voted.

This is known as ecological inference. It is a valid way to surface geographic correlation but must not be read as a personal-vote claim about anyone in the group.

Trust and evidence scope

Release status, source chain, and modeling boundaries.

Every dossier declares what is published, where the data comes from, and where modeled geography stops short of observed individual behavior.

Release status

PUBLISHED

Search-indexed public release in the current dossier set.

Political basis

Latest 2024

Latest modeled series: 2024 D+25.0, high.

Source chain

  • 01Footprint source: U.S. Religion Census 2020 adherent counts paired with Akashic population baselines.
  • 02Politics source: religion_vote_shares_msoa when a stable modeled series is available.
  • 03Interpretation: modeled geography where shown, not direct observation of individual behavior.
Open methodology

National benchmark

The U.S. baseline every ranking is measured against.

These are the base U.S. measures used for over-indexing and geography rankings across the dossier.

Share of population

<0.1%

Pop × U.S. baseline:

Share of adherents

<0.1%

Adh × U.S. baseline:

Availability

Nation, state, county, metro, DMA

Metro and DMA rankings are live. Future tabs stay hidden until dedicated rollups are ready.

Explorer handoff

Open the map-first explorer.

The embedded workbench keeps the map, rankings, and dossier context aligned while preserving the same explorer workflow used across place-first analysis.

Where this is strongest

Map the footprint directly inside the dossier.

Use the same layer contract as the main explorer to inspect muslim across states, counties, metros, and media markets without leaving the dossier.

Counties
Counties ranked by population share, with modeled political context kept secondary.
0 ranked
Loading explorer layer…
Rankings
Population share
RankPlaceValuePres. context
Selected place
Select a place from the map or rankings table to inspect it.
Historian
Group-context prompts

Use the dossier’s strongest places and modeled geography context as a starting point for a deeper analysis.

Top states

The states with the highest concentration.

Population-ranked state concentrations for the public dossier view.

10 rows
#GeographyShare of populationAdherentsPop × U.S.Adh × U.S.
01Alaska
<0.1%
<0.1%
02Alabama
<0.1%
<0.1%
03Arkansas
<0.1%
<0.1%
04Arizona
<0.1%
<0.1%
05California
<0.1%
<0.1%
06Colorado
<0.1%
<0.1%
07Connecticut
<0.1%
<0.1%
08District of Columbia
<0.1%
<0.1%
09Delaware
<0.1%
<0.1%
10Florida
<0.1%
<0.1%

Top counties

County leaders ordered by share of population.

County concentrations ordered by share of population, with adherent share paired where available.

25 rows
#GeographyShare of populationAdherentsPop × U.S.Adh × U.S.
01Abbeville, SC
<0.1%
<0.1%
02Acadia, LA
<0.1%
<0.1%
03Accomack, VA
<0.1%
<0.1%
04Ada, ID
<0.1%
<0.1%
05Adair, MO
<0.1%
<0.1%
06Adair, IA
<0.1%
<0.1%
07Adair, KY
<0.1%
<0.1%
08Adair, OK
<0.1%
<0.1%
09Adams, IA
<0.1%
<0.1%
10Adams, IN
<0.1%
<0.1%
11Adams, WA
<0.1%
<0.1%
12Adams, PA
<0.1%
<0.1%
13Adams, ID
<0.1%
<0.1%
14Adams, OH
<0.1%
<0.1%
15Adams, IL
<0.1%
<0.1%
16Adams, NE
<0.1%
<0.1%
17Adams, WI
<0.1%
<0.1%
18Adams, MS
<0.1%
<0.1%
19Adams, CO
<0.1%
<0.1%
20Adams, ND
<0.1%
<0.1%
21Addison, VT
<0.1%
<0.1%
22Aiken, SC
<0.1%
<0.1%
23Aitkin, MN
<0.1%
<0.1%
24Alachua, FL
<0.1%
<0.1%
25Alamance, NC
<0.1%
<0.1%

Top media markets

Highest-concentration DMAs.

DMA rankings extend the dossier beyond counties while preserving the same measurement grammar.

15 rows
#GeographyShare of populationAdherentsPop × U.S.Adh × U.S.
01Abilene-Sweetwater
<0.1%
<0.1%
02Albany, GA
<0.1%
<0.1%
03Albany-Schenectady-Troy
<0.1%
<0.1%
04Albuquerque-Santa Fe
<0.1%
<0.1%
05Alexandria, LA
<0.1%
<0.1%
06Alpena
<0.1%
<0.1%
07Amarillo
<0.1%
<0.1%
08Anchorage
<0.1%
<0.1%
09Atlanta
<0.1%
<0.1%
10Augusta-Aiken
<0.1%
<0.1%
11Austin
<0.1%
<0.1%
12Bakersfield
<0.1%
<0.1%
13Baltimore
<0.1%
<0.1%
14Bangor
<0.1%
<0.1%
15Baton Rouge
<0.1%
<0.1%

Full ranked explorer

Search the entire geography set.

Open the full geography table with the same measurement rules and public dossier hierarchy preserved.

Full geography explorer

50+ ranked geographies

Unlock searchable state, county, metro, and DMA rankings for this group.

Unlock with Pro$33/mo

Residuals

Over-indexed but politically unusual.

High-footprint counties where the 2024 presidential margin diverges most from this group's latest published national modeled pattern.

CountyFootprint2024 actualModeledResidual
Borden, TX<0.1%adh <0.1%R+91.5D+25.0R+116.5
Arthur, NE<0.1%adh <0.1%R+87.6D+25.0R+112.6
Armstrong, TX<0.1%adh <0.1%R+85.8D+25.0R+110.8
Beaver, OK<0.1%adh <0.1%R+83.8D+25.0R+108.8
Banner, NE<0.1%adh <0.1%R+81.3D+25.0R+106.3
Blount, AL<0.1%adh <0.1%R+80.9D+25.0R+105.9
Archer, TX<0.1%adh <0.1%R+79.3D+25.0R+104.3
Banks, GA<0.1%adh <0.1%R+78.2D+25.0R+103.2
Bear Lake, ID<0.1%adh <0.1%R+77.3D+25.0R+102.3
Baylor, TX<0.1%adh <0.1%R+76.8D+25.0R+101.8
Alfalfa, OK<0.1%adh <0.1%R+76.6D+25.0R+101.6
Antelope, NE<0.1%adh <0.1%R+76.5D+25.0R+101.5
  • 01County candidates come from the top 250 counties ranked by footprint share inside this dossier.
  • 02Actual context is the 2024 presidential margin for each county, computed as (Dem - Rep) / total votes * 100.
  • 03Modeled baseline is the latest published religion-model national Democratic margin for this group.
  • 04Residual = county actual margin minus the modeled baseline; rows rank by absolute residual with footprint share as the tiebreaker.
  • 05This module describes modeled geography versus county election results, not individual behavior.

Full politics table

Every election year with method detail.

Includes all modeled years, CI bounds, and the model version responsible for each row.

Full politics detail

Unlock the full election-year table, CI bounds, method labels, and model metadata.

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High-concentration demographics

Where Muslim concentrates most

Population-weighted averages across the top-quartile counties by Muslim share (0 counties). Each metric pairs the group-weighted value with the U.S. population-weighted baseline.
Median household income
U.S. $84,518 ·
Bachelor's+ attainment
U.S. 35.6% ·
Median age
U.S. 39.1 yrs ·

Method and export

Methodology and exports.

Public notes on source tables, measurement scope, modeling boundaries, and exportability.

  1. 01

    Religion footprint metrics use U.S. Religion Census 2020 adherent counts and Akashic population baselines.

  2. 02

    Each table labels both share of total population and share of religious adherents where both are derivable.

  3. 03

    State and national religion summaries aggregate county-level adherent counts instead of interpolating percentages.

  4. 04

    Political timelines use the religion MSOA model and suppress entirely when no modeled series exists.

Exports

Unlock JSON, CSV, XLSX, and PDF export controls for this dossier.

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