- Lead
- 4,073
- Total
- 11,094
- vs nation
- R+35.2
- Turnout
- 56.7%
Simpson County, MS
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 56.7% of 19,582 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 3,598
- Total
- 11,815
- vs nation
- R+34.9
- Turnout
- 59.9%
- Lead
- 3,519
- Total
- 11,419
- vs nation
- R+32.9
- Turnout
- 56.4%
- Lead
- 2,701
- Total
- 12,249
- vs nation
- R+25.9
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 2,824
- Total
- 12,610
- vs nation
- R+29.7
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 3,866
- Total
- 10,474
- vs nation
- R+34.5
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 3,027
- Total
- 9,574
- vs nation
- R+32.1
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 1,604
- Total
- 7,877
- vs nation
- R+28.9
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+36.7MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 25,6912024 5-year
- Median household income
- $56,3812024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 60.8%2024 5-year
- Black
- 35.6%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 1.7%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+96.6 in 1940MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+89.6 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Escambia County, AL · twin score 90.7
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 56.7%11,094 participants ÷ 19,582 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +23.5 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off versus state
- -4.4 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 33.1%–38.8%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 11,419 | 20,254 | 56.4% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 9,030 | 20,432 | 44.2% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 12,230 | 20,430 | 59.9% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 7,114 | 19,569 | 36.4% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 11,094 | 19,582 | 56.7% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
51 precincts · 11,094 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -Magee 4Magee 4 | 232 | 980 | 8 | 1,220 | 19.0% | 80.3% | R+61.3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -Magee 2Magee 2 | 178 | 763 | 4 | 945 | 18.8% | 80.7% | R+61.9 |
| Precinct -Mendenhall 3Mendenhall 3 | 148 | 710 | 2 | 860 | 17.2% | 82.6% | R+65.3 |
| Precinct -HarrisvilleHarrisville | 80 | 560 | 3 | 643 | 12.4% | 87.1% | R+74.7 |
| Precinct -Dry CreekDry Creek | 62 | 564 | 2 | 628 | 9.9% | 89.8% | R+79.9 |
| Precinct -JupiterJupiter | 340 | 248 | 6 | 594 | 57.2% | 41.8% | D+15.5 |
| Precinct -MeritMerit | 52 | 526 | 3 | 581 | 9.0% | 90.5% | R+81.6 |
| Precinct -Magee 1Magee 1 | 433 | 142 | 4 | 579 | 74.8% | 24.5% | D+50.3 |
| Precinct -WeathersbyWeathersby | 447 | 105 | 5 | 557 | 80.3% | 18.9% | D+61.4 |
| Precinct -BraxtonBraxton | 39 | 500 | 2 | 541 | 7.2% | 92.4% | R+85.2 |
| Precinct -Oak GroveOak Grove | 239 | 300 | 2 | 541 | 44.2% | 55.5% | R+11.3 |
| Precinct -PearlPearl | 79 | 371 | 1 | 451 | 17.5% | 82.3% | R+64.7 |
| Precinct -SumrallSumrall | 73 | 342 | 4 | 419 | 17.4% | 81.6% | R+64.2 |
| Precinct -PinolaPinola | 100 | 235 | 2 | 337 | 29.7% | 69.7% | R+40.1 |
| Precinct -ShiversShivers | 134 | 199 | 2 | 335 | 40.0% | 59.4% | R+19.4 |
| Precinct -BridgeportBridgeport | 201 | 126 | 1 | 328 | 61.3% | 38.4% | D+22.9 |
| Precinct -Fork ChurchFork Church | 187 | 100 | 1 | 288 | 64.9% | 34.7% | D+30.2 |
| Precinct -BowieBowie | 81 | 198 | 2 | 281 | 28.8% | 70.5% | R+41.6 |
| Precinct -D'LoD'Lo | 23 | 242 | 1 | 266 | 8.6% | 91.0% | R+82.3 |
| Precinct -SaratogaSaratoga | 126 | 132 | 3 | 261 | 48.3% | 50.6% | R+2.3 |
| Precinct -New HopeNew Hope | 98 | 131 | 3 | 232 | 42.2% | 56.5% | R+14.2 |
| Precinct -Mendenhall 1Mendenhall 1 | 127 | 78 | 2 | 207 | 61.4% | 37.7% | D+23.7 |
| Bowie Voting District28_28127203 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Braxton Voting District28_28127501 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Bridgeport Voting District28_28127405 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| DLo Voting District28_28127303 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Dry Creek Voting District28_28127304 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Fork Church Voting District28_28127503 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Harrisville Voting District28_28127504 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Jupiter A Voting District28_28127105 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Jupiter Voting District28_28127102 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Magee 1 Voting District28_28127101 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Magee 2 A Voting District28_28127208 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Magee 2 Voting District28_28127205 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Magee 4-N Voting District28_28127401 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Magee 4-S Voting District28_28127402 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Magee 4N A Voting District28_28127407 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Mendenhall 1 Voting District28_28127104 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Mendenhall 3 Voting District28_28127302 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Merit Voting District28_28127502 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| New Hope Voting District28_28127202 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Oak Grove A Voting District28_28127206 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Oak Grove B Voting District28_28127207 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Oak Grove Voting District28_28127204 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Pearl Voting District28_28127505 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Pinola Voting District28_28127403 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Saratoga Voting District28_28127201 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Shivers A Voting District28_28127406 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Shivers Voting District28_28127404 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Sumrall Voting District28_28127301 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Weathersby Voting District28_28127103 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +67.1% |
| 1896 | +84.3% |
| 1900 | +71.1% |
| 1904 | +81.1% |
| 1908 | +80.9% |
| 1912 | +86.1% |
| 1916 | +92.6% |
| 1920 | +77.4% |
| 1924 | +87.3% |
| 1928 | +78.2% |
| 1932 | +95.2% |
| 1936 | +96.1% |
| 1940 | +96.6% |
| 1944 | +93.9% |
| 1948 | +4.4% |
| 1952 | +51.8% |
| 1956 | +52.5% |
| 1960 | +13.3% |
| 1964 | −89.6% |
| 1968 | +2.9% |
| 1972 | −72.7% |
| 1976 | −8.7% |
| 1980 | −12.6% |
| 1984 | −34.6% |
| 1988 | −34.0% |
| 1992 | −23.0% |
| 1996 | −20.4% |
| 2000 | −31.6% |
| 2004 | −36.9% |
| 2008 | −22.4% |
| 2012 | −22.1% |
| 2016 | −30.8% |
| 2020 | −30.5% |
| 2024 | −36.7% |
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 18,804 |
| 2018 | 19,101 |
| 2020 | 18,596 |
| 2022 | 17,891 |
| 2024 | 18,112 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−61 net domestic migration · 2025
Net −1,117 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $44,303 in average income, against $55,825 for residents who stayed — 21% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+29.9 on average — 6.8 points more Democratic-leaning than Simpson County, MS itself (R+36.7).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Rankin County, MS148R+47.1
- Hinds County, MS39D+46.1
- Smith County, MS39R+60.7
- Covington County, MS36R+33.3
- Jefferson Davis County, MS21D+13.7
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Rankin County, MS122
- Covington County, MS40
- Smith County, MS36
- Hinds County, MS34
- Forrest County, MS21
- Lamar County, MS21
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −213 |
| 2012 | −46 |
| 2013 | +91 |
| 2014 | −80 |
| 2015 | −319 |
| 2016 | −169 |
| 2017 | −45 |
| 2018 | −226 |
| 2019 | −53 |
| 2021 | −86 |
| 2022 | 0 |
| 2023 | +96 |
| 2024 | −6 |
| 2025 | −61 |
Simpson County's electorate has shifted sharply toward Republican presidential candidates over the past two decades despite a Black population share near 40%, reflecting a broader realignment across rural Mississippi that has compressed Democratic performance even in historically competitive counties.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 96.6 points in 1940 and a Republican high of 89.6 points in 1964. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 6.3 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 36.7 points.
A population of 25,691, a 61% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $56,381 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Escambia County and Clarke County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Simpson County, Mississippi. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/28127/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.