- Lead
- 1,401
- Total
- 2,985
- vs nation
- R+45.5
- Turnout
- 57.7%
Luce County, MI
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 57.7% of 5,214 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 1,267
- Total
- 3,001
- vs nation
- R+46.7
- Turnout
- 58.3%
- Lead
- 1,075
- Total
- 2,591
- vs nation
- R+43.6
- Turnout
- 49.6%
- Lead
- 589
- Total
- 2,596
- vs nation
- R+26.5
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 299
- Total
- 2,740
- vs nation
- R+18.2
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 704
- Total
- 2,829
- vs nation
- R+22.4
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 524
- Total
- 2,536
- vs nation
- R+21.2
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 143
- Total
- 2,459
- vs nation
- R+2.7
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+46.9MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 6,2712024 5-year
- Median household income
- $54,8932024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 76.4%2024 5-year
- Black
- 8.2%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 2.0%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+25.2 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+70.0 in 1924MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Fremont County, IA · twin score 78.0
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 57.7%3,011 participants ÷ 5,214 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +4.2 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -10.9 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 53.5%–54.6%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 2,624 | 5,294 | 49.6% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 2,486 | 5,237 | 47.5% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 3,022 | 5,187 | 58.3% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 2,382 | 4,409 | 54.0% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 3,011 | 5,214 | 57.7% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
8 precincts · 2,985 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -McMillan Township, Precinct 1McMillan Township, Precinct 1 | 355 | 919 | 16 | 1,290 | 27.5% | 71.2% | R+43.7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -Pentland Township, Precinct 1Pentland Township, Precinct 1 | 203 | 607 | 17 | 827 | 24.5% | 73.4% | R+48.9 |
| Precinct -Lakefield Township, Precinct 1Lakefield Township, Precinct 1 | 187 | 553 | 11 | 751 | 24.9% | 73.6% | R+48.7 |
| Precinct -Columbus Township, Precinct 1Columbus Township, Precinct 1 | 24 | 91 | 2 | 117 | 20.5% | 77.8% | R+57.3 |
| 0951748000001095-17480-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 0954454000001095-44540-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 0955044000001095-50440-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 0956350000001095-63500-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | −17.5% |
| 1896 | −19.4% |
| 1900 | −42.7% |
| 1904 | −66.9% |
| 1908 | −49.1% |
| 1912 | −21.1% |
| 1916 | −33.5% |
| 1920 | −56.3% |
| 1924 | −70.0% |
| 1928 | −61.1% |
| 1932 | −14.8% |
| 1936 | +3.9% |
| 1940 | −18.1% |
| 1944 | −20.3% |
| 1948 | −37.3% |
| 1952 | −48.6% |
| 1956 | −45.3% |
| 1960 | −29.9% |
| 1964 | +25.2% |
| 1968 | −21.4% |
| 1972 | −28.8% |
| 1976 | −11.2% |
| 1980 | −23.1% |
| 1984 | −34.4% |
| 1988 | −27.5% |
| 1992 | +0.5% |
| 1996 | +5.8% |
| 2000 | −20.7% |
| 2004 | −24.9% |
| 2008 | −10.9% |
| 2012 | −22.7% |
| 2016 | −41.5% |
| 2020 | −42.2% |
| 2024 | −46.9% |
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 26.0%744 | 74.0%2,113 | 2,857 |
| 2020 | R | 25.3%739 | 74.7%2,181 | 2,920 |
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 4,315 |
| 2018 | 4,280 |
| 2020 | 4,575 |
| 2022 | 4,657 |
| 2024 | 4,712 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+7 net domestic migration · 2025
Net −104 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $43,514 in average income, against $66,827 for residents who stayed — 35% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −60 |
| 2012 | −36 |
| 2013 | +42 |
| 2014 | −77 |
| 2015 | +17 |
| 2016 | −49 |
| 2017 | +52 |
| 2018 | −36 |
| 2019 | −74 |
| 2021 | −359 |
| 2022 | +293 |
| 2023 | +178 |
| 2024 | −2 |
| 2025 | +7 |
Luce County in Michigan's Upper Peninsula recorded an R+46.9 margin in 2024, consistent with broader U.P. trends where sparse, rural populations and a shrinking timber-era economy have reshaped the electorate over two decades.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 25.2 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 70.0 points in 1924. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 4.7 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 46.9 points.
A population of 6,271, a 76% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $54,893 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Fremont County and Newaygo County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
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Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Luce County, Michigan. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/26095/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.