Tina Smith (D) retiring
explore / Contest Page
Read the current us senate state first, then inspect ratings, polling, markets, fundraising, and history for Minnesota in one evidence flow.
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Akashic Edge race ratings, polling ingests, Polymarket odds, fundraising files, and U.S. Census context.
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Rendered Apr 14, 2026 from the latest stored polling, market, and race-rating snapshots.
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2026 statewide race page for the current state and office only.
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Manual race ratings, stored live-market snapshots, polling context, and deterministic demographic history.
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Smith's retirement opens a rare Minnesota vacancy, but the state hasn't elected a Republican senator since Norm Coleman in 2002. The Democratic primary is a progressive-vs-moderate clash: Flanagan leads polls (49-36 in GQR) and Polymarket (78% to Craig's 16%), with the DFL endorsement, Smith's backing, and Walz's support — but Craig has a massive fundraising edge ($3.8M cash on hand vs Flanagan's $811K) that keeps this primary competitive despite the institutional gap. On the Republican side, former sports journalist Michele Tafoya has NRSC backing and leads Polymarket at 65%, though her abortion stance (calling bans "dumb") could cost her convention support. Royce White ($700K, lost to Klobuchar by 20) and Joe Schwarze ($822K) round out the field. In a state this blue in a year this Democratic, the primary is the only real contest. Safe D.
Updated 2026-03-03
Will David Wellstone be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?
Data from Polymarket prediction markets
Will Jim Nash be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?
Data from Polymarket prediction markets