Tuberville is retiring after one of the most chaotic single terms in modern Senate history — his 9-month hold on military promotions made him a pariah even within the GOP caucus. The GOP primary is the only real contest: Polymarket gives Barry Moore 69% on the strength of Trump's endorsement, Vance's backing, and Club for Growth money, though AG Marshall leads early polls (37-16) on name recognition alone. Marshall has stayed in despite the endorsement wave, but the money gap will be decisive. Alabama went for Trump by 30 in 2024, and the Democratic field — a handful of unknowns with negligible fundraising — has no path. Doug Jones's 2017 win required Roy Moore; lightning doesn't strike twice. Safe R.