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Ancestry atlasAfrican/Caribbeanfine_ancestry

West Indian

2024 ecological estimate

D+13.0Low confidence

Range D+5.9 to D+16.6

Ecological pattern, not individual behavior. Reflects patterns in counties where this ancestry group concentrates — not a claim about individual voters.

Modeled margin trajectory

v1-public-release-2000-2024
200002024
Open in explorerOpen in CartographerOpen JSON

At a glance

Strongest places

The single state, county, and media market where this group’s share of population is highest.

Strongest state

Top of 51
Share of population0.4%
Concentration5.13x U.S. avg

Strongest county

Top of 3,143
Share of population1.6%
Concentration20.25x U.S. avg

Strongest DMA

Media market leader
Share of population0.4%
Concentration5.00x U.S. avg
Dossier navigation
PoliticsCorrelationProvenanceTrustNationalIntensityWorkbenchHistorianStatesCountiesMedia marketsFull explorerOutliersPolitics tableDemographicsPeersMethod
EXPERIMENTALU.S. <0.1%2024 D+13.0

Modeled margin over time

Trajectory by election year

Each bar shows the modeled county-weighted margin and its variant range across county / state / region aggregations where available.

2024D+13.0
Low
2020D+20.1
Low
2016D+18.6
Low
2012D+19.4
Low
2008D+21.0
Low
2004D+10.4
Low
2000D+13.4
Low
R+26EvenD+26
Election correlation scatter

West Indian share vs 2024 presidential margin

Pearson r = 0.236Sample: 9 countiesFilter: group share ≥ 1% and total votes ≥ 500. Point size scales with county population.

How this was modeled

Low confidence
Model v1-public-release-2000-2024Updated 2024 election yearCoverage County-level U.S. + 120th Congress districts

Measurement

Share of total population reporting this ancestry group (ACS 2024 5-year).

Political model

Multi-scale ecological average (county + state + region), weighted by total votes × group share.

Source chain

ACS 2024 5-year (B04006/B03001/B02015)Akashic mv_two_party_margin
Open methodology
Ecological pattern — how to read this

Reflects patterns in counties where this ancestry group concentrates — not a claim about individual voters.

Values are derived by joining ACS 2024 5-year estimates (B04006 + B03001 + B02015/16/20) with certified election results at the county level. That means we know what counties with more or fewer of this group did — not how any individual voted.

This is known as ecological inference. It is a valid way to surface geographic correlation but must not be read as a personal-vote claim about anyone in the group.

Trust and evidence scope

Release status, source chain, and modeling boundaries

Every dossier declares what is published, where the data comes from, and where modeled geography stops short of observed individual behavior.
Release status
EXPERIMENTAL
Experimental dossier. Visible in the atlas, excluded from search indexing until promoted.
Political basis
Latest 2024
Latest modeled series: 2024 D+13.0, low.
Source chain
  • Footprint source: ACS 2024 ancestry fields from demographics_ancestry.
  • Politics source window: presidential model output spanning 2000 through 2024 from the latest completed ancestry_vote_estimates run.
  • Release policy: public-release dossiers are indexed; experimental dossiers remain labeled and excluded from search indexing.
  • Interpretation: modeled political geography, not observed individual vote behavior.
Open methodology
National benchmark

National footprint

These are the base U.S. measures used for over-indexing and geography rankings across the dossier.
Share of population
<0.1%
Population x U.S.: 1.00x U.S.
Availability
Nation, state, county, metro, and DMA in v1
Metro and DMA rankings are live. Future tabs stay hidden until dedicated rollups are ready.

County intensity map

Where West Indian concentrates

Darker = higher share of the county population.

West Indian share of county population

827 of 3,143 counties covered(26%)

0.01%
0.05%
3.94%
No dataU.S. average: 0.10%
Explorer handoff

Open the map-first explorer

The embedded workbench keeps the map, rankings, and dossier context aligned while preserving the same explorer workflow used across place-first analysis.

Where this is strongest

Map the footprint directly inside the dossier.

Use the same layer contract as the main explorer to inspect west indian across states, counties, metros, and media markets without leaving the dossier.

Open full explorer
Counties
Counties ranked by share of population, with presidential context shown only as place-level backdrop.
0 ranked
Loading explorer layer…
Rankings
Population share
RankPlaceValuePres. context
Selected place
Select a place from the map or rankings table to inspect it.
Strongest county
Brewster, TX
Strongest state
New York
Strongest DMA
New York
Ranked geography table

Top states

Population-ranked state concentrations for the public dossier view.
10 rows
#Geography% PopulationPopulation x U.S.
1New York
0.4%
5.13x U.S.
2District of Columbia
0.2%
2.63x U.S.
3Florida
0.2%
2.13x U.S.
4Maryland
0.2%
2.00x U.S.
5New Jersey
0.2%
2.00x U.S.
6Georgia
0.1%
1.75x U.S.
7Massachusetts
0.1%
1.25x U.S.
8Rhode Island
0.1%
1.25x U.S.
9Virginia
<0.1%
1.00x U.S.
10North Carolina
<0.1%
0.88x U.S.
Ranked geography table

Top counties

County concentrations ordered by share of population, with adherent share paired where available.
25 rows
#Geography% PopulationPopulation x U.S.
1Brewster, TX
1.6%
20.25x U.S.
2Kidder, ND
1.5%
18.88x U.S.
3Kings, NY
1.0%
12.75x U.S.
4Essex, VA
0.9%
11.88x U.S.
5Bronx, NY
0.9%
10.88x U.S.
6Barbour, AL
0.8%
10.38x U.S.
7Queens, NY
0.8%
9.88x U.S.
8Marion, GA
0.8%
9.63x U.S.
9St. James, LA
0.7%
8.88x U.S.
10Geary, KS
0.6%
7.38x U.S.
11Newton, GA
0.6%
6.88x U.S.
12Clear Creek, CO
0.5%
6.50x U.S.
13Ulster, NY
0.5%
5.75x U.S.
14Barrow, GA
0.5%
5.63x U.S.
15Glynn, GA
0.5%
5.63x U.S.
16Hamblen, TN
0.5%
5.63x U.S.
17DeKalb, GA
0.4%
5.50x U.S.
18Monroe, PA
0.4%
5.25x U.S.
19Osceola, FL
0.4%
5.25x U.S.
20Rockdale, GA
0.4%
5.25x U.S.
21Broward, FL
0.4%
4.88x U.S.
22Hardin, KY
0.4%
4.50x U.S.
23Westchester, NY
0.4%
4.50x U.S.
24Montour, PA
0.3%
4.38x U.S.
25Essex, NJ
0.3%
4.25x U.S.
Ranked geography table

Top media markets

DMA rankings extend the dossier beyond counties while preserving the same measurement grammar.
15 rows
#Geography% PopulationPopulation x U.S.
1New York
0.4%
5.00x U.S.
2Miami-Ft. Lauderdale
0.2%
3.00x U.S.
3Orlando-Daytona Bch-Melbrn
0.2%
2.88x U.S.
4Atlanta
0.2%
2.13x U.S.
5Rochester, NY
0.2%
2.00x U.S.
6Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota)
0.2%
2.00x U.S.
7Washington, DC (Hagrstwn)
0.1%
1.88x U.S.
8West Palm Beach-Ft. Pierce
0.1%
1.75x U.S.
9Springfield-Holyoke
0.1%
1.63x U.S.
10Baltimore
0.1%
1.38x U.S.
11Jacksonville
0.1%
1.38x U.S.
12Philadelphia
0.1%
1.38x U.S.
13Savannah
0.1%
1.38x U.S.
14Cheyenne-Scottsbluff
0.1%
1.25x U.S.
15Columbia, SC
0.1%
1.25x U.S.
Full ranked explorer

Search the entire geography set

Open the full geography table with the same measurement rules and public dossier hierarchy preserved.

Full geography explorer

50+ ranked geographies

Unlock searchable state, county, metro, and DMA rankings for this group.

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Residuals

Over-indexed but politically unusual

High-footprint counties where the 2024 presidential margin diverges most from this group's latest published national modeled pattern.
CountyFootprint2024 actualModeledResidual
Blount, AL0.1%R+80.9D+13.0R+93.9
Washington, CO<0.1%R+75.1D+13.0R+88.1
Scurry, TX<0.1%R+73.6D+13.0R+86.6
Bacon, GA0.2%R+73.2D+13.0R+86.2
Custer, NE0.2%R+72.3D+13.0R+85.3
Jeff Davis, GA0.1%R+68.3D+13.0R+81.3
Union, FL0.1%R+68.3D+13.0R+81.3
Cocke, TN<0.1%R+68.3D+13.0R+81.3
Texas, OK<0.1%R+67.7D+13.0R+80.7
Lee, KY0.1%R+67.7D+13.0R+80.7
Hockley, TX0.3%R+66.3D+13.0R+79.3
Randolph, AL<0.1%R+64.8D+13.0R+77.8
  • County candidates come from the top 250 counties ranked by footprint share inside this dossier.
  • Actual context is the 2024 presidential margin for each county, computed as (Dem - Rep) / total votes * 100.
  • Modeled baseline is the latest published ancestry-model national Democratic margin for this group.
  • Residual = county actual margin minus the modeled baseline; rows rank by absolute residual with footprint share as the tiebreaker.
  • This module describes modeled geography versus county election results, not individual behavior.
Full table

Every election year with method detail

Includes all modeled years, CI bounds, and the model version responsible for each row.

Full politics detail

Unlock the full election-year table, CI bounds, method labels, and model metadata.

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High-concentration demographics

Where West Indian concentrates most

Population-weighted averages across the top-quartile counties by West Indian share (206 counties). Each metric pairs the group-weighted value with the U.S. population-weighted baseline.
Median household income
$89,219
U.S. $84,518 · ▲ +$4,701 vs U.S.
Bachelor's+ attainment
40.0%
U.S. 35.6% · ▲ +4.4pt vs U.S.
Median age
39.3 yrs
U.S. 39.1 yrs · ▲ +0.2 yrs vs U.S.
Method and export

Methodology and exports

Public notes on source tables, measurement scope, modeling boundaries, and exportability.
  • Ancestry footprint metrics use ACS 2024 source columns mapped from the canonical ancestry taxonomy.
  • Public geography tables rank states and counties by share of total population reporting the ancestry.
  • State and national ancestry shares are weighted from county populations whenever a direct aggregate row is unavailable.
  • Political timelines use the latest completed ancestry model run and surface model version plus confidence labels directly.
  • Indexed public-release dossiers remain search-visible; experimental dossiers stay public in the atlas but noindex until promoted.
  • These pages describe modeled voting patterns, not direct measures of individual behavior.

Exports

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