North Carolina US Senate

Open Seat

Thom Tillis (R) retiring

Senate Class 2

explore / Contest Page

Read the current us senate state first, then inspect ratings, polling, markets, fundraising, and history for North Carolina in one evidence flow.

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Evidence & provenance

Source owners

Akashic Edge race ratings, polling ingests, Polymarket odds, fundraising files, and U.S. Census context.

Freshness

Rendered Apr 14, 2026 from the latest stored polling, market, and race-rating snapshots.

Boundary scope

2026 statewide race page for the current state and office only.

Claim type

Manual race ratings, stored live-market snapshots, polling context, and deterministic demographic history.

Source chain

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Open methodology

Live coverage status

Polling and market panels fail closed. If a feed is missing or stale, this page states that directly instead of implying current coverage.

Polling

No published polling snapshot

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Prediction markets

Live Polymarket prices available

Latest stored market snapshot: Feb 10, 2026.

Race Analysis

This is Democrats' best pickup opportunity in the country and it isn't close. Cooper hasn't lost a North Carolina election since the mid-1980s — 16 years as AG, 8 as governor — and leads every public poll by double digits. Whatley, the former RNC chair, won the GOP nomination but has never held elected office and remains largely unknown to voters. Cooper's favorability, fundraising dominance, and the 2026 national environment make this a lock. Safe D.

Updated 2026-03-04