explore / Contest Page
Read the current us senate state first, then inspect ratings, polling, markets, fundraising, and history for Louisiana in one evidence flow.
Evidence & provenance
Source owners
Akashic Edge race ratings, polling ingests, Polymarket odds, fundraising files, and U.S. Census context.
Freshness
Rendered Apr 14, 2026 from the latest stored polling, market, and race-rating snapshots.
Boundary scope
2026 statewide race page for the current state and office only.
Claim type
Manual race ratings, stored live-market snapshots, polling context, and deterministic demographic history.
Polling and market panels fail closed. If a feed is missing or stale, this page states that directly instead of implying current coverage.
Cassidy's vote to convict Trump in his second impeachment trial painted a massive target on his back, and Louisiana's switch from the jungle primary to a closed partisan system makes him acutely vulnerable. Under the old rules, Cassidy could consolidate moderate and Democratic crossover votes; under the new closed Republican primary, he faces a pure MAGA electorate. Julia Letlow has Trump's endorsement, Governor Landry's backing, and her late husband's sympathy factor from the LA-05 base. John Fleming, the former congressman and Trump Treasury official, adds a third credible challenger splitting the anti-Cassidy vote — though Polymarket gives Letlow 70% to win the primary, with Cassidy at just 14%. Cassidy has raised $11.7M and secured endorsements from Drew Brees, Tim Scott, and John Thune, but institutional support may not matter in a closed primary against a Trump-endorsed challenger. The general election is irrelevant in a state Trump won by 22 — the primary is everything.
Updated 2026-03-03