Stafford County, VA

VA · Presidential Elections 18922024

D+0.8
2024 Margin
R+2.5%
2020→2024 Swing
D since 2020
Voting Streak
163K
Population

Stafford County, VA (Virginia) voted D+0.8 for Kamala Harris (Democrat) in the 2024 presidential election, with Harris receiving 41,252 votes (49.38%) to 40,590 (48.59%) for Trump.

This represents a R+2.5% swing toward Republicans compared to 2020. Stafford County is classified as a competitive Democratic county. Stafford County has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 2020. The county has a population of approximately 163,466.

Quick Stats

2024 ResultD+0.8
2020→2024 SwingR+2.5%
Voting StreakD since 2020
Elections on Record34

Demographics

Population163,466
Median Age
36.3(US: 38.7)
College (BA+)
43.8%(US: 35.2%)
Median Income
$137,807(US: $80k)
White (non-Hisp)
53.7%(US: 57.6%)
Hispanic
16.6%(US: 19.1%)
Black
19.4%(US: 12.2%)
Asian
3.8%(US: 5.7%)
Homeownership
80.5%(US: 64.5%)
Poverty Rate
4.7%(US: 12.3%)
Veterans
17.1%(US: 6.2%)
Non-English (CVAP)
13.0%(US: 17.0%)
Source: Census ACS 5-Year (2020-2024)

Community Profile

Religious Composition

Source: Religion Census 2020
Evangelical
17.3%
Mainline Protestant
6.2%
Catholic
3.3%(Below Average)
LDS/Mormon
2.2%
Black Protestant
0.3%

Ancestry Groups

Source: Census ACS

Top reported ancestry groups (compared to national average).

German
10.7%
English
9.4%
Irish
8.8%
American Heritage
8.1%(1.5x)
Mexican
4.6%
Italian
4.2%
+ 6 more reported ancestry groups

Age Distribution

Median:36.3 yrs(US: 38.5)
Under 18
26.2%
18-29
9.2%
30-44
20.1%
45-64
33.2%
65+
11.4%
National average

Employment by Industry

Census ACS
Professional & TechnicalRegional Strength
16.8%(1.4x US)
Retail Trade
9.2%(0.9x US)
Educational Services
7.5%(0.9x US)
Construction
7.4%
Healthcare & Social Services
4.7%
ManufacturingUnder-represented
2.7%(0.3x US)
National average

Presidential Elections

Presidential Results

YearDemocratRepublicanMarginSwing
202449.4%(41,252)48.6%(40,590)D+0.8R+2.5
202050.5%(40,245)47.3%(37,636)D+3.3D+12.3
201642.3%(27,908)51.4%(33,868)R+9.0R+0.3
201244.9%(27,182)53.6%(32,480)R+8.7R+2.4
200846.4%(25,716)52.7%(29,221)R+6.3D+18.2
200437.4%(17,208)62.0%(28,500)R+24.6R+0.8
200036.8%(12,596)60.5%(20,731)R+23.8R+7.7
199638.0%(9,902)54.0%(14,098)R+16.1D+3.3
199231.0%(7,718)50.4%(12,528)R+19.3D+19.4
198830.4%(5,380)69.1%(12,234)R+38.7D+1.0

Source: Official state election returns via MIT Election Data + Science Lab

Presidential Margin Trend

Stafford County, VA18922024

D+R++40+200-20-4018921900190819161924193219401948195619641972198019881996200420122020
Democratic margin
Republican margin

Senate Elections

Senate Results

YearDemocratRepublicanMarginSwing
202451.6%(42,603)48.2%(39,764)D+3.4R+0.6
202052.0%(40,566)47.9%(37,389)D+4.1D+0.2
201850.9%(28,536)47.0%(26,368)D+3.9D+22.6
201439.5%(13,436)58.2%(19,790)R+18.7R+11.7
201246.4%(27,820)53.3%(31,997)R+7.0R+26.1
200859.0%(32,150)39.8%(21,695)D+19.2D+31.2
200643.1%(13,982)55.1%(17,885)R+12.0D+72.3
20020.0%(0)84.3%(13,264)R+84.3R+66.0
200040.8%(13,908)59.1%(20,163)R+18.3R+9.9
199645.5%(12,192)54.0%(14,455)R+8.5D+6.8

Source: Official state election returns via MIT Election Data + Science Lab

Governor Elections

Governor Results

YearDemocratRepublicanMarginSwing
202555.9%(35,327)43.9%(27,774)D+11.9D+17.1
201746.8%(19,011)52.0%(21,123)R+5.2D+9.3
201340.0%(13,657)54.5%(18,595)R+14.5D+20.5
200932.4%(9,226)67.4%(19,164)R+34.9R+24.4
200543.6%(10,924)54.1%(13,559)R+10.5D+2.4
200143.2%(9,248)56.1%(12,019)R+12.9D+9.2
199738.1%(7,224)60.2%(11,416)R+22.1D+14.3
199331.4%(5,382)67.9%(11,631)R+36.5R+17.0
198940.3%(5,775)59.7%(8,565)R+19.4R+20.4
198550.5%(5,078)49.5%(4,980)D+1.0D+7.0

Source: Official state election returns via MIT Election Data + Science Lab

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