Frederick County, VA

VA · Presidential Elections 18922024

R+28.3
2024 Margin
R+0.9%
2020→2024 Swing
R since 1968
Voting Streak
95K
Population

Frederick County, VA (Virginia) voted R+28.3 for Donald Trump (Republican) in the 2024 presidential election, with Trump receiving 33,117 votes (63.37%) to 18,331 (35.07%) for Harris.

This represents a R+0.9% swing toward Republicans compared to 2020. Frederick County is classified as a solid Republican county. Frederick County has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1968. The county has a population of approximately 95,008.

Quick Stats

2024 ResultR+28.3
2020→2024 SwingR+0.9%
Voting StreakR since 1968
Elections on Record34

Demographics

Population95,008
Median Age
40.8(US: 38.7)
College (BA+)
31.9%(US: 35.2%)
Median Income
$97,606(US: $80k)
White (non-Hisp)
78.6%(US: 57.6%)
Hispanic
12.5%(US: 19.1%)
Black
4.1%(US: 12.2%)
Asian
1.9%(US: 5.7%)
Homeownership
79.3%(US: 64.5%)
Poverty Rate
6.8%(US: 12.3%)
Veterans
9.4%(US: 6.2%)
Non-English (CVAP)
5.4%(US: 17.0%)
Source: Census ACS 5-Year (2020-2024)

Community Profile

Religious Composition

Source: Religion Census 2020
Evangelical
20.9%
Mainline Protestant
9.6%(Above Average)
LDS/Mormon
0.5%
Black Protestant
0.1%

Ancestry Groups

Source: Census ACS

Top reported ancestry groups (compared to national average).

German
16.7%(1.4x)
English
14.3%Above Average(1.6x)
Irish
12.6%(1.4x)
American Heritage
8.1%(1.5x)
Italian
5.9%(1.2x)
Mexican
4.4%
+ 4 more reported ancestry groups

Age Distribution

Median:40.8 yrs(US: 38.5)
Under 18
22.6%
18-29
7.3%
30-44
18.7%
45-64
32.5%
65+
18.8%
National average

Employment by Industry

Census ACS
Professional & Technical
12.3%
Manufacturing
10.1%
Retail Trade
9.8%
Construction
8.2%(1.2x US)
Educational Services
7.2%(0.8x US)
Healthcare & Social Services
4.8%
National average
+ 1 more sectors

Presidential Elections

Presidential Results

YearDemocratRepublicanMarginSwing
202435.1%(18,331)63.4%(33,117)R+28.3R+0.9
202035.3%(17,207)62.7%(30,558)R+27.4D+7.6
201629.5%(11,932)64.5%(26,083)R+35.0R+7.1
201234.9%(12,690)62.8%(22,858)R+27.9R+6.6
200838.6%(12,961)60.0%(20,149)R+21.4D+15.5
200431.0%(8,853)67.9%(19,386)R+36.9R+3.8
200032.0%(7,158)65.1%(14,574)R+33.1R+8.0
199632.5%(5,976)57.6%(10,608)R+25.2D+0.5
199228.3%(4,942)54.0%(9,425)R+25.7D+19.6
198827.0%(3,707)72.3%(9,921)R+45.3D+10.7

Source: Official state election returns via MIT Election Data + Science Lab

Presidential Margin Trend

Frederick County, VA18922024

D+R++60+40+200-20-40-6018921900190819161924193219401948195619641972198019881996200420122020
Democratic margin
Republican margin

Senate Elections

Senate Results

YearDemocratRepublicanMarginSwing
202438.4%(19,769)61.5%(31,659)R+23.1D+1.9
202037.5%(17,962)62.4%(29,940)R+25.0R+2.3
201837.7%(12,885)60.3%(20,640)R+22.7D+13.9
201430.3%(6,659)66.9%(14,693)R+36.6R+11.2
201237.2%(13,342)62.6%(22,464)R+25.4R+36.0
200854.8%(18,168)44.1%(14,647)D+10.6D+36.5
200636.4%(7,807)62.3%(13,363)R+25.9D+59.4
20020.0%(0)85.3%(9,565)R+85.3R+51.6
200033.1%(7,320)66.9%(14,766)R+33.7R+13.7
199639.9%(7,141)60.0%(10,723)R+20.0D+7.9

Source: Official state election returns via MIT Election Data + Science Lab

Governor Elections

Governor Results

YearDemocratRepublicanMarginSwing
202540.5%(15,809)59.3%(23,129)R+18.8D+11.2
201734.4%(8,363)64.4%(15,656)R+30.0D+3.1
201330.8%(6,339)63.8%(13,148)R+33.0D+16.6
200925.1%(4,456)74.8%(13,274)R+49.7R+23.5
200533.7%(6,027)59.8%(10,698)R+26.1R+4.8
200139.0%(6,433)60.3%(9,947)R+21.3D+17.3
199730.2%(4,246)68.8%(9,672)R+38.6D+11.5
199324.7%(3,139)74.8%(9,510)R+50.1R+22.7
198936.3%(3,746)63.7%(6,581)R+27.4R+27.7
198550.1%(3,475)49.9%(3,455)D+0.3D+13.6

Source: Official state election returns via MIT Election Data + Science Lab

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