Caroline County, VA

VA · Presidential Elections 1892–2024

R+8.8
2024 Margin
R+4.6%
2020→2024 Swing
R since 2016
Voting Streak
32K
Population

Caroline County, VA (Virginia) voted R+8.8 for Donald Trump (Republican) in the 2024 presidential election, with Trump receiving 9,511 votes (53.74%) to 7,957 (44.96%) for Harris.

This represents a R+4.6% swing toward Republicans compared to 2020. Caroline County is classified as a lean Republican county. Caroline County has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2016. The county has a population of approximately 32,098.

Quick Stats

2024 ResultR+8.8
2020→2024 SwingR+4.6%
Voting StreakR since 2016
Elections on Record34

Demographics

Population32,098
Median Age
38.9(US: 38.7)
College (BA+)
21.8%(US: 35.2%)
Median Income
$87,407(US: $80k)
White (non-Hisp)
61.5%(US: 57.6%)
Hispanic
7.7%(US: 19.1%)
Black
25.0%(US: 12.2%)
Asian
1.0%(US: 5.7%)
Homeownership
82.3%(US: 64.5%)
Poverty Rate
11.3%(US: 12.3%)
Veterans
12.7%(US: 6.2%)
Non-English (CVAP)
4.6%(US: 17.0%)
Source: Census ACS 5-Year (2020-2024)

Community Profile

Religious Composition

Source: Religion Census 2020
Evangelical
19.7%
Mainline Protestant
5.4%
Catholic
4.6%(Below Average)
Black Protestant
3.4%(Above Average)

Ancestry Groups

Source: Census ACS

Top reported ancestry groups (compared to national average).

English
11.4%(1.3x)
Irish
10.3%
German
9.9%
Italian
5.8%
American Heritage
5.7%
French
2.7%(1.4x)
+ 2 more reported ancestry groups

Age Distribution

Median:38.9 yrs(US: 38.5)
Under 18
22.7%
18-29
6.6%↓
30-44
22.8%↑
45-64
31.3%↑
65+
16.7%
National average

Employment by Industry

Census ACS
Professional & Technical
11.4%
Retail Trade
10.4%
Educational Services
9.4%
Construction
8.6%(1.3x US)
Manufacturing
4.4%(0.4x US)
Healthcare & Social Services
3.8%(0.8x US)
National average
+ 1 more sectors

Presidential Elections

Presidential Results

YearDemocratRepublicanMarginSwing
202445.0%(7,957)53.7%(9,511)R+8.8R+4.6
202047.0%(7,657)51.2%(8,336)R+4.2D+0.8
201645.1%(6,432)50.2%(7,147)R+5.0R+13.3
201253.3%(7,276)45.1%(6,151)D+8.2R+3.7
200855.5%(7,163)43.5%(5,617)D+12.0D+13.2
200449.0%(4,878)50.2%(4,999)R+1.2R+6.5
200051.7%(4,314)46.4%(3,873)D+5.3R+9.6
199653.5%(3,897)38.6%(2,816)D+14.8D+4.2
199248.6%(3,770)38.0%(2,947)D+10.6D+8.7
198850.6%(3,186)48.7%(3,065)D+1.9R+0.7

Source: Official state election returns via MIT Election Data + Science Lab

Presidential Margin Trend

Caroline County, VA • 1892–2024

D+R++60+40+200-20-40-6018921900190819161924193219401948195619641972198019881996200420122020
Democratic margin
Republican margin

Senate Elections

Senate Results

YearDemocratRepublicanMarginSwing
202447.2%(8,249)52.7%(9,218)R+5.5R+6.1
202050.2%(8,124)49.7%(8,036)D+0.5R+4.0
201851.4%(5,838)46.9%(5,323)D+4.5R+0.2
201451.2%(3,879)46.4%(3,517)D+4.8R+4.7
201254.5%(7,329)45.0%(6,057)D+9.5R+30.0
200869.3%(8,799)29.8%(3,780)D+39.5D+36.9
200650.6%(3,771)48.1%(3,580)D+2.6D+83.3
20020.0%(0)80.8%(2,844)R+80.8R+85.0
200052.1%(4,285)47.9%(3,936)D+4.2R+15.5
199659.9%(4,225)40.1%(2,830)D+19.8D+8.8

Source: Official state election returns via MIT Election Data + Science Lab

Governor Elections

Governor Results

YearDemocratRepublicanMarginSwing
202550.1%(6,733)49.7%(6,680)D+0.4D+0.5
201749.4%(4,126)49.5%(4,135)R+0.1R+5.4
201348.7%(3,794)43.4%(3,380)D+5.3D+18.3
200943.5%(2,855)56.5%(3,709)R+13.0R+22.6
200553.7%(3,396)44.0%(2,786)D+9.6R+12.7
200160.8%(3,590)38.5%(2,274)D+22.3D+19.9
199750.1%(2,731)47.7%(2,600)D+2.4D+12.1
199344.7%(2,483)54.4%(3,019)R+9.7R+19.4
198954.9%(3,232)45.1%(2,658)D+9.7R+18.6
198564.2%(2,836)35.8%(1,583)D+28.4D+0.6

Source: Official state election returns via MIT Election Data + Science Lab

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