How did OR-HD-51, Oregon vote in the 2024 presidential election?

OR-HD-51, Oregon voted Republican in 2024 with a margin of R+18.8. Kamala D Harris received 16,937 votes and Donald Trump received 25,120 out of 43,611 total votes cast, a 52.3-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What are the demographics of OR-HD-51, Oregon?

OR-HD-51, Oregon has a population of 75,526 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 61.7% non-Hispanic white, 11.9% Hispanic, 3.9% Black.

Which places are most similar to OR-HD-51, Oregon?

Based on demographic and electoral similarity analysis, the three most similar state house districts to OR-HD-51, Oregon are Georgia State House District 49, Michigan State House District 45, California Assembly District 22. Similarity is computed using a vector embedding of demographic, economic, and electoral characteristics.

Oregon State House District 51

Oregon · Latest: 2024↓ R+52.3 vs 2020

Safe Republican — shifted 52.3pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 76K residents

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Oregon State House District 51 is a state house district that has a population of 75,526. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+18.8.

Oregon State House District 51 Presidential Election Results, 2020–2024
Year	Dem %	Rep %	Margin	Swing
2024	38.8%	57.6%	R+18.8	R+52.3
2020	65.3%	31.7%	D+33.6	—

Political Identity

What defines OR-HD-51?

OR-HD-51 is a solidly Republican suburban geography with a R+18.8 margin in 2024. It shifted 52.3pp toward Republicans between 2020 and 2024. It has a population of 76K.

Similarity Explorer

Similar state house districts

Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.

8 visible matches

Georgia State House District 49GA

Urban Competitive

R+6.3

Similarity score93%

Michigan State House District 45MI

Urban Competitive

R+34.7

Similarity score93%

California Assembly District 22CA

Urban Republican

R+7.7

Similarity score93%

New York Assembly District 45NY

Urban Republican

R+49.8

Similarity score92%

New York Assembly District 49NY

Urban Republican

R+19.9

Similarity score90%

New York Assembly District 47NY

Urban Competitive

R+23.5

Similarity score90%

Virginia House of Delegates District 67VA

Urban Republican

R+20.0

Similarity score89%

New York Assembly District 27NY

Urban Republican

R+9.7

Similarity score89%

Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore OR-HD-51's political evolution with the Historian

“How has Oregon State House District 51 voted in presidential elections?”

Automated Readout

Key Insights

High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.

Has flipped parties 1 time since 2020
Highly elastic — margins have ranged 52.3 points across recent elections, suggesting a volatile electorate
Swung 52.3 points toward Republican between 2020 and 2024

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

OR-HD-51Census ACS 2024

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

White (Non-Hispanic) 61.7%Asian 15.2%Hispanic 11.9%Multiracial 5.8%Black 3.9%Native American 0.9%Native Hawaiian 0.7%

Group	OR-HD-51	State	National
White (Non-Hispanic)	61.7%	71.4%	57.4%
Asian	15.2%	4.5%	6.0%
Hispanic / Latino	11.9%	14.7%	19.3%
Multiracial / Other	5.8%	6.0%	4.0%
Black / African American	3.9%	1.9%	12.2%
Native American / Alaska Native	0.9%	1.1%	0.9%
Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander	0.7%	0.4%	0.2%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Detailed ancestry data unavailable for this geography.

Who lives in Oregon State House District 51? 75,526 residents as of the 2020 Census.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

OR-HD-51 vs Oregon vs National76K residents

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

76K

local

76KState 4.3MNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

0.02%

local

0.02%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

75.7%

local

75.7%State 77.8%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState $84,541National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 12.0%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 36.7%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 63.3%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 40.6 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 15.2%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 19.1%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 9.8%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 15.2%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 84.8%National 77.8%

Competitiveness

How competitive is OR-HD-51?

Lean DAvg margin: D+7.4 (last 3 elections)

2020

D+33.6

2024

R+18.8

Elasticity

52.3pp

margin range

Party Flips

last 30 years

5-Elec Avg

D+7.4

Other Oregon State House Districts

59 total

Name	Margin ↓
OR-HD-43	D+85.7
OR-HD-42	D+84.2
OR-HD-33	D+75.8
OR-HD-44	D+75.3
OR-HD-28	D+71.9
OR-HD-45	D+71.3
OR-HD-08	D+66.1
OR-HD-46	D+64.0
OR-HD-41	D+60.3
OR-HD-38	D+57.5
OR-HD-16	D+54.3
OR-HD-27	D+50.1
OR-HD-34	D+46.0
OR-HD-47	D+38.7
OR-HD-35	D+37.5
OR-HD-25	D+37.3
OR-HD-30	D+34.7
OR-HD-13	D+34.6
OR-HD-54	D+33.7
OR-HD-37	D+30.0
OR-HD-36	D+29.5
OR-HD-05	D+27.9
OR-HD-14	D+24.6
OR-HD-26	D+21.2
OR-HD-29	D+16.1

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