How did MT-HD-48, Montana vote in the 2024 presidential election?

MT-HD-48, Montana voted Republican in 2024 with a margin of R+1.7. Kamala D Harris received 2,417 votes and Donald Trump received 2,506 out of 5,106 total votes cast, a 4.0-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What is MT-HD-48, Montana's political history?

MT-HD-48, Montana has 5 presidential elections on record, spanning 2008 to 2024. Democrats have won 2 and Republicans 3 of those contests. The largest single-election swing was 24.3 points in 2012.

What are the demographics of MT-HD-48, Montana?

MT-HD-48, Montana has a population of 10,856 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 76.1% non-Hispanic white, 10.4% Hispanic, 1.2% Black. About 23% of residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher. Median household income is $72,639.

Which places are most similar to MT-HD-48, Montana?

Based on demographic and electoral similarity analysis, the three most similar state house districts to MT-HD-48, Montana are Montana State House District 25, Montana State House District 50, Montana State House District 24. Similarity is computed using a vector embedding of demographic, economic, and electoral characteristics.

Montana State House District 48

Montana · Latest: 2024↓ R+4.0 vs 2020

Shifted 4.0pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 11K residents

Ask Atlas Ask Historian Open in Explore CompareShare image

Presidential margin · 2008 → 2024

Full history

2008
D+3.9
Obama
2012
R+20.4
Romney
2016
R+4.0
Trump
2020
D+2.2
Biden
2024
R+1.7
Trump

Who lives here

Full breakdown

White76.1%
Hispanic10.4%
Native American6.3%

Economy & age

Population: 11K
Median age: 33.8; −5.3pp vs U.S.
Median income: $73K; −$11K vs U.S.
College+: 23%; −13.0pp vs U.S.

Faith & language

Full detail

Evangelical13.8%
Catholic7.6%

95% English only5% Non-English

Similarity Explorer

Similar state house districts

Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.

8 visible matches

Montana State House District 25MT

Urban Competitive

R+8.8

Similarity score98%

Montana State House District 50MT

Urban Competitive

R+8.5

Similarity score98%

Montana State House District 24MT

Urban Competitive

R+10.1

Similarity score96%

Montana State House District 23MT

Urban Competitive

R+9.1

Similarity score95%

Montana State House District 49MT

Urban Competitive

D+0.9

Similarity score95%

Rhode Island State House District 21RI

Urban Competitive

D+7.9

Similarity score94%

North Dakota State House District 43ND

Urban Competitive

R+6.3

Similarity score94%

Montana State House District 47MT

Suburban Competitive 2

D+7.0

Similarity score94%

Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore MT-HD-48's political evolution with the Historian

“How has Montana State House District 48 voted in presidential elections?”

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

MT-HD-48Census ACS 2024Ancestry detail available

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

White (Non-Hispanic) 76.1%Hispanic 10.4%Native American 6.3%Multiracial 5.3%Black 1.2%Asian 0.6%

Group	MT-HD-48	State	National
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(12)	76.1%	83.6%	57.4%
▶Hispanic / Latino(4)	10.4%	4.6%	19.3%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(4)	6.3%	5.6%	0.9%
Multiracial / Other	5.3%	4.9%	4.0%
▶Black / African American(3)	1.2%	0.5%	12.2%
▶Asian(2)	0.6%	0.8%	6.0%
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(1)	0.1%	<0.1%	0.2%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

Who lives in Montana State House District 48? 10,856 residents as of the 2020 Census.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

MT-HD-48 vs Montana vs National11K residents

23% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 10pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+9 on average nationally.

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

11K

local

11KState 1.1MNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

0.00%

local

0.00%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

76.2%

local

76.2%State 76.5%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

$72,639

local

$72,639State $73,049National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

13.0%

local

13.0%State 11.5%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

22.6%

local

22.6%State 35.3%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

66.5%

local

66.5%State 69.2%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

33.8 yrs

local

33.8 yrsState 40.8 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

20.7%

local

20.7%State 15.4%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

16.0%

local

16.0%State 20.1%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

3.6%

local

3.6%State 2.3%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

4.7%

local

4.7%State 4.2%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

95.3%

local

95.3%State 95.8%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in MT-HD-48

Turnout % = votes cast ÷ voting-age population (VAP). Source: PL 94-171 2020 Census.

2024 Turnout

61.7%

vs Previous

-1.9pp

Voting-Age Pop

8,270

History

2008–2024

Contained geographies

Counties in MT-HD-48

Counties that overlap MT-HD-48.

Counties

(1)

Yellowstone100%

Other Montana State House Districts

198 total

Name	Margin ↓
MT-HD-91	D+62.5
MT-HD-100	D+57.4
MT-HD-95	D+42.6
MT-HD-90	D+40.5
MT-HD-62	D+34.7
MT-HD-66	D+33.9
MT-HD-16	D+27.2
MT-HD-61	D+23.9
MT-HD-99	D+23.8
MT-HD-98	D+18.8
MT-HD-89	D+18.8
MT-HD-63	D+17.3
MT-HD-74	D+15.1
MT-HD-65	D+14.6
MT-HD-05	D+11.6
MT-HD-76	D+10.8
MT-HD-79	D+8.8
MT-HD-82	D+8.4
MT-HD-32	D+8.2
MT-HD-83	D+7.6
MT-HD-47	D+7.0
MT-HD-94	D+6.6
MT-HD-81	D+5.3
MT-HD-60	D+3.3
MT-HD-15	D+3.1

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