Karnes County, Texas
Latest: 2024
Safe Republican — shifted 6.0pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 39 presidential elections on record
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(12) | 34.7% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(5) | 53.4% |
▶Black / African American(2) | 9.5% |
▶Asian(3) | 0.3% |
Native American / Alaska Native | 0.2% |
Multiracial / Other | 1.9% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 41.4% | 65.4% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 16.3% | 25.7% |
| Mainline Protestant | 5.6% | 8.9% |
| Non-religious | 36.7% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+58.1 |
| 2020 | Trump+52.1 |
| 2016 | Trump+43.4 |
| 2012 | Romney+35.8 |
| 2008 | McCain+21.6 |
| 2004 | Bush+33.6 |
| 2000 | Bush+23.7 |
| 1996 | Clinton+6.6 |
| 1992 | Bush+2.0 |
Karnes, Texas is a county that has a population of 14,968. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+58.1. Akashic Edge tracks 39 presidential elections here, dating back to 1872.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20.7% | 78.8% | R+58.1 | R+6.0 |
| 2020 | 23.5% | 75.6% | R+52.1 | R+8.7 |
| 2016 | 27.3% | 70.6% | R+43.4 | R+7.5 |
| 2012 | 31.7% | 67.5% | R+35.8 | R+14.3 |
| 2008 | 38.9% | 60.4% | R+21.6 | D+12.1 |
| 2004 | 33.0% | 66.6% | R+33.6 | R+9.9 |
| 2000 | 37.5% | 61.2% | R+23.7 | R+30.3 |
| 1996 | 49.7% | 43.1% | D+6.6 | D+8.6 |
| 1992 | 40.4% | 42.3% | R+2.0 | R+4.9 |
| 1988 | 51.3% | 48.3% | D+3.0 | D+28.9 |
| 1984 | 36.9% | 62.8% | R+25.9 | R+17.4 |
| 1980 | 45.0% | 53.6% | R+8.6 | R+36.6 |
| 1976 | 63.5% | 35.5% | D+28.0 | D+47.4 |
| 1972 | 40.2% | 59.6% | R+19.4 | R+41.0 |
| 1968 | 52.8% | 31.2% | D+21.6 | R+30.7 |
| 1964 | 76.1% | 23.8% | D+52.3 | D+27.1 |
| 1960 | 62.6% | 37.4% | D+25.2 | D+29.0 |
| 1956 | 47.9% | 51.6% | R+3.8 | D+7.8 |
| 1952 | 44.2% | 55.7% | R+11.5 | R+65.6 |
| 1948 | 74.0% | 19.9% | D+54.1 | — |
What defines Karnes?
Karnes has been trending Republican — 22pp redder over the last four presidential cycles. It has a majority-minority electorate where racial demographics are the primary driver of partisan lean in this exurban geography.
County in State Context
Current Texas Polling
Contextual statewide polling for Texas. County pages stay rooted in county returns, but live statewide polling helps frame the current cycle.
2026 Texas Senate Democratic Primary
Jasmine Crockett leads at 47.8%
8 pollsStale
Field Preview
Ask the Historian
Explore this county's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Has voted Republican in the last 5 presidential elections
- Latest election (2024) was a Republican landslide with a 58.1% margin
- Shifted 22.3 points toward Republicans over the last 4 elections