Shelby County, Tennessee
Latest: 2024
Safe Democratic — shifted 5.1pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 40 presidential elections on record
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 32.7% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(18) | 8.8% |
▶Black / African American(15) | 52.4% |
▶Asian(6) | 3.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 0.5% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1) | 0.4% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(3) | 0.1% |
Multiracial / Other | 2.5% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Evangelical Protestant | 31.0% | 45.2% |
| Black Protestant | 19.8% | 28.9% |
| Mainline Protestant | 6.5% | 9.4% |
| Catholic | 6.0% | 8.7% |
| Other | 5.2% | 7.5% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 0.8% | 1.1% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Non-religious | 31.4% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Harris+25.4 |
| 2020 | Biden+30.4 |
| 2016 | Clinton+27.5 |
| 2012 | Obama+26.1 |
| 2008 | Obama+27.4 |
| 2004 | Kerry+15.6 |
| 2000 | Gore+14.4 |
| 1996 | Clinton+13.3 |
| 1992 | Clinton+10.4 |
Shelby, Tennessee is a county that has a population of 919,173. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Democratic with a margin of D+25.4. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 61.8% | 36.4% | D+25.4 | R+5.1 |
| 2020 | 64.4% | 34.0% | D+30.4 | D+3.0 |
| 2016 | 61.9% | 34.5% | D+27.5 | D+1.4 |
| 2012 | 62.5% | 36.5% | D+26.1 | R+1.3 |
| 2008 | 63.4% | 36.0% | D+27.4 | D+11.8 |
| 2004 | 57.5% | 41.9% | D+15.6 | D+1.1 |
| 2000 | 56.5% | 42.1% | D+14.4 | D+1.2 |
| 1996 | 55.0% | 41.8% | D+13.3 | D+2.9 |
| 1992 | 52.3% | 41.9% | D+10.4 | D+12.9 |
| 1988 | 48.5% | 51.0% | R+2.5 | R+1.4 |
| 1984 | 49.2% | 50.3% | R+1.1 | R+7.3 |
| 1980 | 51.6% | 45.4% | D+6.2 | R+0.7 |
| 1976 | 52.9% | 46.0% | D+6.9 | D+39.5 |
| 1972 | 32.7% | 65.3% | R+32.6 | R+36.1 |
| 1968 | 35.1% | 31.7% | D+3.5 | R+1.7 |
| 1964 | 52.6% | 47.4% | D+5.2 | D+5.7 |
| 1960 | 48.8% | 49.4% | R+0.5 | D+2.2 |
| 1956 | 46.0% | 48.7% | R+2.7 | R+7.5 |
| 1952 | 52.4% | 47.5% | D+4.8 | R+9.4 |
| 1948 | 36.6% | 22.3% | D+14.3 | — |
What defines Shelby?
It has a majority-minority electorate where racial demographics are the primary driver of partisan lean.
County in State Context
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Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Has voted Democratic in the last 5 presidential elections
- Latest election (2024) was a Democratic landslide with a 25.4% margin
- Turnout decreased by 8.3 percentage points since the previous presidential election