Dutchess County, New York
Latest: 2024
Leans Democratic — shifted 4.3pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 40 presidential elections on record
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 66.1% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(20) | 15.4% |
▶Black / African American(15) | 9.8% |
▶Asian(6) | 3.5% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 0.7% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1) | 0.6% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.5% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 33.5% | 69.1% |
| Mainline Protestant | 5.0% | 10.3% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 4.4% | 9.1% |
| Other | 4.1% | 8.5% |
| Black Protestant | 1.2% | 2.5% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.2% | 0.5% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 0.2% | 0.4% |
| Non-religious | 51.6% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Harris+5.4 |
| 2020 | Biden+9.6 |
| 2016 | Clinton+0.3 |
| 2012 | Obama+7.5 |
| 2008 | Obama+8.6 |
| 2004 | Bush+4.2 |
| 2000 | Bush+0.3 |
| 1996 | Clinton+5.2 |
| 1992 | Bush+4.4 |
Dutchess, New York is a county that has a population of 298,220. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Democratic with a margin of D+5.4. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 52.4% | 47.0% | D+5.4 | R+4.3 |
| 2020 | 53.9% | 44.3% | D+9.6 | D+9.3 |
| 2016 | 47.5% | 47.2% | D+0.3 | R+7.2 |
| 2012 | 52.8% | 45.3% | D+7.5 | R+1.1 |
| 2008 | 53.7% | 45.1% | D+8.6 | D+12.8 |
| 2004 | 47.0% | 51.2% | R+4.2 | R+3.9 |
| 2000 | 46.9% | 47.1% | R+0.3 | R+5.5 |
| 1996 | 45.6% | 40.4% | D+5.2 | D+9.6 |
| 1992 | 36.1% | 40.5% | R+4.4 | D+18.4 |
| 1988 | 38.2% | 61.0% | R+22.8 | D+13.4 |
| 1984 | 31.7% | 67.9% | R+36.2 | R+9.3 |
| 1980 | 30.8% | 57.6% | R+26.9 | R+11.6 |
| 1976 | 41.6% | 56.9% | R+15.3 | D+24.5 |
| 1972 | 30.0% | 69.8% | R+39.8 | R+21.4 |
| 1968 | 36.4% | 54.9% | R+18.4 | R+44.4 |
| 1964 | 62.9% | 37.0% | D+25.9 | D+47.3 |
| 1960 | 39.3% | 60.7% | R+21.4 | D+35.3 |
| 1956 | 21.6% | 78.3% | R+56.7 | R+12.8 |
| 1952 | 27.2% | 71.1% | R+43.9 | R+12.0 |
| 1948 | 32.4% | 64.2% | R+31.9 | — |
What defines Dutchess?
Dutchess has been won by both parties in the last 6 presidential elections (5D, 1R) — a genuine swing geography. It has a racially mixed, moderately educated electorate — the urban swing demographic that decides close elections.
County in State Context
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Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Has voted Democratic in the last 5 presidential elections
- The 2016 election was decided by just 0.3 points — razor-thin
- Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2024, Republicans in 2004