Question 1

How did Jefferson, Montana vote in the 2024 presidential election?

Accepted Answer

Jefferson, Montana voted Republican in 2024 with a margin of R+36.5. Kamala D Harris received 2,516 votes and Donald Trump received 5,544 out of 8,291 total votes cast, a 3.3-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

Question 2

What is Jefferson, Montana's political history?

Accepted Answer

Jefferson, Montana has 34 presidential elections on record, spanning 1892 to 2024. It has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1972. The largest single-election swing was 87.4 points in 1896.

Question 3

What are the demographics of Jefferson, Montana?

Accepted Answer

Jefferson, Montana has a population of 12,774 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 90.6% non-Hispanic white, 3.0% Hispanic. About 32% of residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher. Median household income is $95,490.

Question 4

Which places are most similar to Jefferson, Montana?

Accepted Answer

Based on demographic and electoral similarity analysis, the three most similar countys to Jefferson, Montana are Grundy, Mills, Piatt. Similarity is computed using a vector embedding of demographic, economic, and electoral characteristics.

Group	%
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	90.6%
▶Hispanic / Latino(5)	3.0%
▶Black / African American(1)	<0.1%
▶Asian(2)	0.4%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(1)	0.1%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(4)	1.5%
Multiracial / Other	4.6%

Tradition	% Pop	% Adherents
Other	11.5%	41.5%
LDS (Mormon)	7.6%	27.6%
Evangelical Protestant	7.3%	26.2%
Catholic	6.7%	24.0%
Mainline Protestant	2.3%	8.3%
Non-religious	72.3%	—

Year	Result
2024	Trump+36.5
2020	Trump+33.2
2016	Trump+32.5
2012	Romney+27.3
2008	McCain+15.1
2004	Bush+33.5
2000	Bush+34.8
1996	Dole+9.8
1992	Bush+3.0

Year	Dem %	Rep %	Margin	Swing
2024	30.3%	66.9%	R+36.5	R+3.3
2020	32.0%	65.3%	R+33.2	R+0.8
2016	29.8%	62.2%	R+32.5	R+5.1
2012	34.8%	62.2%	R+27.3	R+12.3
2008	40.7%	55.8%	R+15.1	D+18.4
2004	32.1%	65.5%	R+33.5	D+1.3
2000	29.3%	64.1%	R+34.8	R+24.9
1996	37.0%	46.8%	R+9.8	R+6.9
1992	33.5%	36.5%	R+3.0	D+3.8
1988	45.5%	52.3%	R+6.8	D+18.1
1984	36.6%	61.5%	R+24.9	R+0.5
1980	32.7%	57.1%	R+24.4	R+17.7
1976	45.6%	52.3%	R+6.7	D+9.8
1972	39.6%	56.1%	R+16.5	R+17.7
1968	46.3%	45.1%	D+1.2	R+17.5
1964	59.3%	40.6%	D+18.7	D+21.7
1960	48.4%	51.4%	R+3.0	D+19.7
1956	38.6%	61.4%	R+22.8	R+0.5
1952	38.5%	60.8%	R+22.3	R+27.5
1948	50.9%	45.6%	D+5.2	—

Jefferson County, Montana

County in State Context

Ask the Historian