Pinal County, Arizona
Latest: 2024
Safe Republican — shifted 4.7pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 29 presidential elections on record
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 54.9% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(18) | 29.8% |
▶Black / African American(12) | 5.3% |
▶Asian(6) | 1.8% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(9) | 0.3% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(8) | 4.4% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(5) | 0.4% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.4% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 21.6% | 54.0% |
| Other | 10.3% | 25.7% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 8.2% | 20.4% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 6.0% | 14.9% |
| Mainline Protestant | 2.0% | 5.1% |
| Black Protestant | 0.1% | 0.4% |
| Non-religious | 59.9% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+22.0 |
| 2020 | Trump+17.3 |
| 2016 | Trump+19.2 |
| 2012 | Romney+16.4 |
| 2008 | McCain+14.4 |
| 2004 | Bush+15.1 |
| 2000 | Bush+1.1 |
| 1996 | Clinton+17.7 |
| 1992 | Clinton+10.3 |
Pinal, Arizona is a county that has a population of 469,006. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+22.0. Akashic Edge tracks 29 presidential elections here, dating back to 1912.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 38.4% | 60.4% | R+22.0 | R+4.7 |
| 2020 | 40.6% | 57.9% | R+17.3 | D+2.0 |
| 2016 | 37.0% | 56.2% | R+19.2 | R+2.9 |
| 2012 | 40.8% | 57.1% | R+16.4 | R+2.0 |
| 2008 | 42.0% | 56.4% | R+14.4 | D+0.7 |
| 2004 | 42.2% | 57.3% | R+15.1 | R+13.9 |
| 2000 | 47.6% | 48.7% | R+1.1 | R+18.9 |
| 1996 | 53.1% | 35.3% | D+17.7 | D+7.4 |
| 1992 | 42.1% | 31.8% | D+10.3 | D+14.2 |
| 1988 | 47.5% | 51.3% | R+3.8 | D+12.0 |
| 1984 | 41.7% | 57.5% | R+15.9 | R+3.0 |
| 1980 | 39.6% | 52.4% | R+12.8 | R+18.9 |
| 1976 | 51.4% | 45.4% | D+6.0 | D+29.8 |
| 1972 | 36.5% | 60.3% | R+23.8 | R+27.0 |
| 1968 | 45.6% | 42.4% | D+3.2 | R+14.3 |
| 1964 | 58.7% | 41.2% | D+17.5 | D+11.7 |
| 1960 | 52.9% | 47.1% | D+5.8 | D+12.2 |
| 1956 | 46.7% | 53.1% | R+6.5 | R+1.6 |
| 1952 | 47.6% | 52.4% | R+4.9 | R+27.6 |
| 1948 | 60.7% | 37.9% | D+22.8 | — |
What defines Pinal?
It has a plurality-minority electorate (45% nonwhite) where demographic change is reshaping the political map.
County in State Context
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Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Has voted Republican in the last 5 presidential elections
- Latest election (2024) was a Republican landslide with a 22.0% margin
- College attainment is 22% — 11pp below the national average. Similar education levels correlate with Republican lean nationally