Congressional District 2 campaign intelligence report
campaign intelligence · campaign-intelligence-v1
Campaign Intelligence Report
Congressional District 2 · Connecticut · boundary vintage not recorded
Snapshot
ci-v1:cd:0902:5c86bf513a10d255:20260821163256Generated from source state Aug 21, 202614 source recordscurrent cycle
Race, candidates & money
OfficeU.S. House
SeatCT-02
PrimaryAug 11, 2026
GeneralNov 3, 2026
IncumbentJoe Courtney (D)
Seat statusIncumbent-held
Race-spine priorD+7.8
Finance throughApr 25, 2026
2026 contest identity from the frozen forecast spine; candidate and federal finance figures come from the independently refreshed finance sidecar.
| Candidate | Party | Status | Raised | Spent | Cash | Outside + | Outside − |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Courtney incumbent | Democratic | nominee | $589.1k | $419.8k | — | — | — |
| George Austin | Republican | nominee | $268.0k | $64.3k | — | — | — |
structural vote
Electoral baseline, trend & volatility
State-relative structural baseline. Each district result is compared with the statewide result for the same contest; contests are averaged within cycle, then cycle means receive a four-year half-life. Positive values are Democratic-relative and negative values Republican-relative. This is not a win-probability forecast.
| Cycle | State-relative lean | Statewide contests | Recency weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R+6.7 | 1 | 1.000 |
| 2020 | R+8.6 | 1 | 0.500 |
| 2016 | R+10.3 | 1 | 0.250 |
| 2012 | R+3.6 | 1 | 0.125 |
| 2008 | R+3.9 | 1 | 0.063 |
| 2004 | R+1.0 | 1 | 0.031 |
| 2000 | R+2.7 | 1 | 0.016 |
| 1996 | R+0.3 | 1 | 0.008 |
| 1992 | D+2.6 | 1 | 0.004 |
| 1988 | R+0.2 | 1 | 0.002 |
| 1984 | R+2.9 | 1 | 0.001 |
| 1980 | R+0.7 | 1 | 0.000 |
| 1976 | D+1.6 | 1 | 0.000 |
| 1972 | R+3.4 | 1 | 0.000 |
| 1968 | R+0.7 | 1 | 0.000 |
| 1964 | D+1.3 | 1 | 0.000 |
| 1960 | R+4.8 | 1 | 0.000 |
| 1956 | D+0.9 | 1 | 0.000 |
| 1952 | R+2.1 | 1 | 0.000 |
| 1948 | D+0.2 | 1 | 0.000 |
| 1944 | R+1.8 | 1 | 0.000 |
| 1940 | R+2.9 | 1 | 0.000 |
| 1936 | R+9.4 | 1 | 0.000 |
| 1932 | R+3.0 | 1 | 0.000 |
reported & reaggregated results
Election history
| Election | All-party margin | Two-party margin | Votes | Measurement | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+7.8 | D+7.9 | 388,467 | modeled | Akashic presidential election history |
| 2024 U.S. House | D+16.0 | D+16.0 | 376,047 | legacy boundary | Audited actual-race archive and explorer rollups |
| 2022 U.S. House | D+18.0 | D+18.3 | 285,031 | legacy boundary | Audited actual-race archive and explorer rollups |
| 2020 President | D+11.4 | D+11.7 | 391,586 | modeled | Akashic presidential election history |
| 2020 U.S. House | D+18.2 | D+19.3 | 367,347 | legacy boundary | Audited actual-race archive and explorer rollups |
| 2018 U.S. House | D+22.5 | D+24.1 | 289,114 | legacy boundary | Audited actual-race archive and explorer rollups |
| 2016 President | D+3.4 | D+3.6 | 353,419 | modeled | Akashic presidential election history |
| 2016 U.S. House | D+22.7 | D+25.2 | 330,257 | legacy boundary | Audited actual-race archive and explorer rollups |
| 2014 U.S. House | D+22.1 | D+23.8 | 227,936 | legacy boundary | Audited actual-race archive and explorer rollups |
| 2012 President | D+13.7 | D+13.9 | 328,793 | modeled | Akashic presidential election history |
| 2012 U.S. House | D+33.9 | D+36.5 | 298,960 | legacy boundary | Audited actual-race archive and explorer rollups |
| 2010 U.S. House | D+18.3 | D+19.1 | 246,809 | legacy boundary | Audited actual-race archive and explorer rollups |
| 2008 President | D+18.5 |
electorate
Registration & participation
| Year | CVAP | Registered | Ballots | Registered turnout | Ballots / CVAP | Candidate votes / CVAP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2004 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2000 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1996 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1992 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1988 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1984 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1980 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1976 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1972 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1968 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1964 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1960 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1956 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1952 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1948 | — | — | — | — |
constituency
Population profile
- Total population
- 720,602
- CVAP
- 0
- Median age
- 42.6
- Median household income
- $97.5k
- Poverty rate
- 8.4%
- Bachelor’s or higher
- 38.6%
ACS release 2024 5-year.
White78.0%
Black3.8%
Two or more races4.4%
Hispanic / Latino9.3%
Asian3.7%
Other0.8%
geography
District composition
- Northeastern Connecticut Planning Regionallocation weight 100.0%
- Southeastern Connecticut Planning Regionallocation weight 100.0%
- Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Regionallocation weight 71.3%
- Capitol Planning Regionallocation weight 31.4%
- Naugatuck Valley Planning Regionallocation weight 6.4%
- South Central Connecticut Planning Regionallocation weight 5.9%
- Northwest Hills Planning Regionallocation weight 1.9%
Cross-legislative overlap
Exact cross-legislative overlap has not been baked for this state. County co-occurrence is not substituted for population/CVAP/area intersection.
representation
Current officeholder
data contract
Coverage & limitations
District geographyFull
Current district boundary is baked.
ACS constituency profileFull
ACS release 2024 5-year.
As of 2024 5-yearCitizen voting-age populationFull
Current CVAP is attached to the district at read time.
Electoral historyFull
38 presidential observations plus 25 audited actual-race observations.
Same-office district historyFull
25 U.S. House results are available for this congressional district.
Voter registrationUnavailable
No district-level registration series is attached; missing values are not treated as zero.
Current-cycle contest and candidatesFull
2026 contest identity from the frozen forecast spine; candidate and federal finance figures come from the independently refreshed finance sidecar.
Campaign financeFull
At least one active candidate has published campaign-finance figures.
As of Apr 25, 2026Exact legislative crosswalksUnavailable
Exact population/CVAP district-to-district overlap is not substituted with county co-occurrence.
Legislative activityUnavailable
No baked Congress.gov legislative-activity sidecar is published for this member.
audit trail
Sources & methodology
Baseline
District all-party margin minus statewide all-party margin for the same presidential, U.S. Senate, or governor contest. Multiple statewide contests in a cycle are averaged; cycle means receive a four-year half-life. Trend is OLS slope per four years across cycle means; volatility is their population standard deviation.
Margins
Primary margin is Democratic votes minus Republican votes divided by all candidate votes. A two-party margin is shown separately when Democratic and Republican vote totals are available.
Participation
Registered turnout and CVAP turnout proxy require a ballots-cast numerator. Where only candidate-vote totals exist, the report labels candidate-vote/CVAP explicitly and does not call it turnout.
Boundaries
Every district is tied to its current baked geography metadata. Historical/reaggregated rows retain their measurement labels; same-number continuity across redistricting is never assumed. Exact cross-district overlap appears only from an exact intersection sidecar.
- Canonical baked Place payloadClass B
current
District identity, boundary metadata, constituent counties, freshness, and lineage. - Akashic presidential election historyClass B
2024
- Audited actual-race archive and explorer rollupsClass B
2024
U.S. House, U.S. Senate, Senate special, and governor results where available. - American Community Survey constituency profileClass C
U.S. Census Bureau · 2024 5-year
- Citizen voting-age population lookupClass C
U.S. Census Bureau · 2024 5-year
- MIT Election Lab county presidentialClass B
2024
- Census ACS demographicsClass B
2024 5-year
- ASARB US Religion CensusClass B
2020
- Voteview HSall_members.csvClass B
as of Jun 8, 2026
Source ↗
current boundary
District & precinct map
The district boundary and optional precinct mosaic are the same canonical map artifacts used on the Place page. Precinct geometry is displayed only when its baked viewBox registers to this current district boundary.
official deadlines
Election calendar
No official-source election calendar sidecar is published for this state.
No validated calendar events are published for this district.
sourced developments
Current-cycle intelligence appendix
No curated, source-backed current-cycle intelligence sidecar is published for this state.
No item-level current-cycle intelligence is published for this district.
incumbent record
Legislative activity appendix
No baked Congress.gov legislative-activity sidecar is published for this member.
precinct grain
Precinct intelligence appendix
Precinct summaries are derived from the existing current-boundary clipped district mosaic sidecars. Each cycle retains its own precinct results; rows are descriptive and do not infer persuasion or demographic targeting.
Latest layer2024 President
Precincts with results63
Vote volume374,274
Precinct winsD 33 · R 30 · O 0
Highest vote volume
| Precinct | Margin | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| Precinct -110-Enfield | D+2.9 | 20,351 |
| Precinct -180-Groton | D+23.6 | 16,913 |
| Precinct -110-Vernon | D+18.0 | 15,020 |
| Precinct -180-Norwich | D+17.2 | 14,920 |
| Precinct -170-Madison | D+24.3 | 12,013 |
| Precinct -180-Waterford | D+10.4 | 11,966 |
| Precinct -180-East Lyme | D+25.0 | 11,791 |
| Precinct -180-Stonington | D+26.8 | 11,782 |
Closest precincts
| Precinct | Margin | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| Precinct -110-Andover | R+0.1 | 2,094 |
| Precinct -130-East Hampton | D+0.7 | 8,201 |
| Precinct -110-Ellington | D+0.7 | 9,546 |
| Precinct -180-Montville | R+0.9 | 8,854 |
| Precinct -110-Coventry | D+1.7 | 7,620 |