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presidential margin for each county, computed as (Dem - Rep) / total votes * 100.","Modeled baseline is the latest published religion-model national Democratic margin for this group.","Residual = county actual margin minus the modeled baseline; rows rank by absolute residual with footprint share as the tiebreaker.","This module describes modeled geography versus county election results, not individual behavior."],"timeline":[{"year":2024,"demVoteShare":50.265,"repVoteShare":49.735,"demMarginPct":0.53,"method":"msoa_calibrated","reliability":"HIGH","modelVersion":null},{"year":2020,"demVoteShare":52.945,"repVoteShare":47.055,"demMarginPct":5.89,"method":"msoa_calibrated","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":null},{"year":2016,"demVoteShare":54.415,"repVoteShare":45.585,"demMarginPct":8.83,"method":"msoa_calibrated","reliability":"LOW","modelVersion":null}],"politicsSummary":{"latestYear":2024,"latestMarginPct":0.53,"method":"msoa_calibrated","reliability":"HIGH","modelVersion":null},"related":[{"slug":"catholic","name":"Catholic","href":"/religion/catholic","relationship":"Peer tradition","releaseLabel":"PUBLISHED","indexStatus":"index","confidenceLabel":"Modeled politics available","shareOfPopulationPct":18.47,"shareOfAdherentsPct":38.42},{"slug":"evangelical","name":"Evangelical Protestant","href":"/religion/evangelical","relationship":"Peer 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behavior."],"methodology":["Religion footprint metrics use U.S. Religion Census 2020 adherent counts and Akashic population baselines.","Each table labels both share of total population and share of religious adherents where both are derivable.","State and national religion summaries aggregate county-level adherent counts instead of interpolating percentages.","Political timelines use the religion MSOA model and suppress entirely when no modeled series exists."]}}