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2024 presidential margin for each county, computed as (Dem - Rep) / total votes * 100.","Modeled baseline is the latest published religion-model national Democratic margin for this group.","Residual = county actual margin minus the modeled baseline; rows rank by absolute residual with footprint share as the tiebreaker.","This module describes modeled geography versus county election results, not individual behavior."],"timeline":[{"year":2024,"demVoteShare":45.6,"repVoteShare":54.4,"demMarginPct":-8.88,"ciLower":-12.61,"ciUpper":-6.73,"method":"ecological_religion_model","reliability":"HIGH","modelVersion":"v1-ecological-unanchored-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"R+8.9 · high confidence"},{"year":2020,"demVoteShare":47.7,"repVoteShare":52.3,"demMarginPct":-4.66,"ciLower":-8.58,"ciUpper":-2.69,"method":"ecological_religion_model","reliability":"HIGH","modelVersion":"v1-ecological-unanchored-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"R+4.7 · high confidence"},{"year":2016,"demVoteShare":46.6,"repVoteShare":53.4,"demMarginPct":-6.78,"ciLower":-9.18,"ciUpper":-5.1,"method":"ecological_religion_model","reliability":"HIGH","modelVersion":"v1-ecological-unanchored-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"R+6.8 · high confidence"},{"year":2012,"demVoteShare":45.6,"repVoteShare":54.4,"demMarginPct":-8.79,"ciLower":-18.07,"ciUpper":-2.56,"method":"ecological_religion_model","reliability":"HIGH","modelVersion":"v1-ecological-unanchored-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"R+8.8 · high confidence"},{"year":2008,"demVoteShare":48.8,"repVoteShare":51.2,"demMarginPct":-2.42,"ciLower":-9.22,"ciUpper":2.13,"method":"ecological_religion_model","reliability":"HIGH","modelVersion":"v1-ecological-unanchored-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"R+2.4 · high confidence"},{"year":2004,"demVoteShare":43.1,"repVoteShare":56.9,"demMarginPct":-13.88,"ciLower":-22.14,"ciUpper":-8.4,"method":"ecological_religion_model","reliability":"HIGH","modelVersion":"v1-ecological-unanchored-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"R+13.9 · high confidence"},{"year":2000,"demVoteShare":44.5,"repVoteShare":55.5,"demMarginPct":-10.91,"ciLower":-18.88,"ciUpper":-5.88,"method":"ecological_religion_model","reliability":"HIGH","modelVersion":"v1-ecological-unanchored-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"R+10.9 · high confidence"}],"politicsSummary":{"latestYear":2024,"latestMarginPct":-8.88,"ciLower":-12.61,"ciUpper":-6.73,"method":"ecological_religion_model","reliability":"HIGH","modelVersion":"v1-ecological-unanchored-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"R+8.9 · high confidence"},"related":[{"slug":"catholic","name":"Catholic","href":"/religion/catholic","relationship":"Peer tradition","releaseLabel":"PUBLISHED","indexStatus":"index","confidenceLabel":"Modeled politics 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