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2024 presidential margin for each county, computed as (Dem - Rep) / total votes * 100.","Modeled baseline is the latest published ancestry-model national Democratic margin for this group.","Residual = county actual margin minus the modeled baseline; rows rank by absolute residual with footprint share as the tiebreaker.","This module describes modeled geography versus county election results, not individual behavior."],"timeline":[{"year":2024,"demVoteShare":53.7,"repVoteShare":46.3,"demMarginPct":7.41,"ciLower":4.1,"ciUpper":12.59,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+7 (Modeled)"},{"year":2020,"demVoteShare":57.4,"repVoteShare":42.6,"demMarginPct":14.82,"ciLower":10.57,"ciUpper":20.33,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+15 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