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the modeled baseline; rows rank by absolute residual with footprint share as the tiebreaker.","This module describes modeled geography versus county election results, not individual behavior."],"timeline":[{"year":2024,"demVoteShare":47.4,"repVoteShare":52.6,"demMarginPct":-5.24,"ciLower":-6.55,"ciUpper":-4.46,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"HIGH","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"R+5 (High confidence)"},{"year":2020,"demVoteShare":49.5,"repVoteShare":50.5,"demMarginPct":-1,"ciLower":-2.42,"ciUpper":-0.12,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"HIGH","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"R+1 (High confidence)"},{"year":2016,"demVoteShare":48,"repVoteShare":52,"demMarginPct":-4.03,"ciLower":-6.08,"ciUpper":-2.77,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"HIGH","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"R+4 (High 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