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presidential margin for each county, computed as (Dem - Rep) / total votes * 100.","Modeled baseline is the latest published ancestry-model national Democratic margin for this group.","Residual = county actual margin minus the modeled baseline; rows rank by absolute residual with footprint share as the tiebreaker.","This module describes modeled geography versus county election results, not individual behavior."],"timeline":[{"year":2024,"demVoteShare":50.9,"repVoteShare":49.1,"demMarginPct":1.85,"ciLower":-0.08,"ciUpper":2.83,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+2 (Modeled)"},{"year":2020,"demVoteShare":53.1,"repVoteShare":46.9,"demMarginPct":6.26,"ciLower":4.12,"ciUpper":7.58,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+6 (Modeled)"},{"year":2016,"demVoteShare":51.7,"repVoteShare":48.3,"demMarginPct":3.42,"ciLower":0.2,"ciUpper":5.09,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+3 (Modeled)"},{"year":2012,"demVoteShare":53.2,"repVoteShare":46.8,"demMarginPct":6.43,"ciLower":2.77,"ciUpper":9.17,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+6 (Modeled)"},{"year":2008,"demVoteShare":55.2,"repVoteShare":44.8,"demMarginPct":10.32,"ciLower":7.33,"ciUpper":12.76,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+10 (Modeled)"},{"year":2004,"demVoteShare":50.7,"repVoteShare":49.3,"demMarginPct":1.34,"ciLower":-3.14,"ciUpper":4.67,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+1 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confidence","shareOfPopulationPct":0.35,"shareOfAdherentsPct":null},{"slug":"swiss","name":"Swiss","href":"/ancestry/swiss","relationship":"Same family","releaseLabel":"ELIGIBLE","indexStatus":"index","confidenceLabel":"High confidence","shareOfPopulationPct":0.25,"shareOfAdherentsPct":null},{"slug":"austrian","name":"Austrian","href":"/ancestry/austrian","relationship":"Same family","releaseLabel":"ELIGIBLE","indexStatus":"index","confidenceLabel":"High confidence","shareOfPopulationPct":0.17,"shareOfAdherentsPct":null}],"provenance":["Footprint source: ACS 2024 ancestry fields from demographics_ancestry.","Politics source window: presidential model output spanning 2000 through 2024 from the latest completed ancestry_vote_estimates run.","Release policy: public-release dossiers are indexed; experimental dossiers remain labeled and excluded from search indexing.","Interpretation: modeled political geography, not observed individual vote behavior."],"methodology":["Ancestry footprint 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