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the 2024 presidential margin for each county, computed as (Dem - Rep) / total votes * 100.","Modeled baseline is the latest published ancestry-model national Democratic margin for this group.","Residual = county actual margin minus the modeled baseline; rows rank by absolute residual with footprint share as the tiebreaker.","This module describes modeled geography versus county election results, not individual behavior."],"timeline":[{"year":2024,"demVoteShare":49.8,"repVoteShare":50.2,"demMarginPct":-0.36,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024"},{"year":2020,"demVoteShare":52.1,"repVoteShare":47.9,"demMarginPct":4.21,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024"},{"year":2016,"demVoteShare":50.6,"repVoteShare":49.4,"demMarginPct":1.29,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024"},{"year":2012,"demVoteShare":52.5,"repVoteShare":47.5,"demMarginPct":4.99,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024"},{"year":2008,"demVoteShare":54.5,"repVoteShare":45.5,"demMarginPct":8.94,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024"},{"year":2004,"demVoteShare":50.1,"repVoteShare":49.9,"demMarginPct":0.26,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024"},{"year":2000,"demVoteShare":50.9,"repVoteShare":49.1,"demMarginPct":1.89,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024"}],"politicsSummary":{"latestYear":2024,"latestMarginPct":-0.36,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024"},"related":[{"slug":"polish","name":"Polish","href":"/ancestry/polish","relationship":"Same family","releaseLabel":"ELIGIBLE","indexStatus":"index","confidenceLabel":"High confidence","shareOfPopulationPct":2.42,"shareOfAdherentsPct":null},{"slug":"hungarian","name":"Hungarian","href":"/ancestry/hungarian","relationship":"Same family","releaseLabel":"ELIGIBLE","indexStatus":"index","confidenceLabel":"High confidence","shareOfPopulationPct":0.37,"shareOfAdherentsPct":null},{"slug":"czech","name":"Czech","href":"/ancestry/czech","relationship":"Same family","releaseLabel":"ELIGIBLE","indexStatus":"index","confidenceLabel":"High confidence","shareOfPopulationPct":0.36,"shareOfAdherentsPct":null},{"slug":"ukrainian","name":"Ukrainian","href":"/ancestry/ukrainian","relationship":"Same family","releaseLabel":"ELIGIBLE","indexStatus":"index","confidenceLabel":"High confidence","shareOfPopulationPct":0.34,"shareOfAdherentsPct":null}],"provenance":["Footprint source: ACS 2024 ancestry fields from demographics_ancestry.","Politics source window: presidential model output spanning 2000 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