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2024 presidential margin for each county, computed as (Dem - Rep) / total votes * 100.","Modeled baseline is the latest published ancestry-model national Democratic margin for this group.","Residual = county actual margin minus the modeled baseline; rows rank by absolute residual with footprint share as the tiebreaker.","This module describes modeled geography versus county election results, not individual behavior."],"timeline":[{"year":2024,"demVoteShare":42.6,"repVoteShare":57.4,"demMarginPct":-14.86,"ciLower":-20.66,"ciUpper":-11.55,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"R+15 (Modeled)"},{"year":2020,"demVoteShare":47.3,"repVoteShare":52.7,"demMarginPct":-5.49,"ciLower":-16.32,"ciUpper":3.63,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"LOW","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"R+16 to D+4 (Estimated range)"},{"year":2016,"demVoteShare":45.4,"repVoteShare":54.6,"demMarginPct":-9.19,"ciLower":-18.84,"ciUpper":-1.43,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"R+9 (Modeled)"},{"year":2012,"demVoteShare":47.3,"repVoteShare":52.7,"demMarginPct":-5.45,"ciLower":-12.23,"ciUpper":-1.39,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"R+5 (Modeled)"},{"year":2008,"demVoteShare":49.6,"repVoteShare":50.4,"demMarginPct":-0.75,"ciLower":-7.16,"ciUpper":2.97,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"R+1 (Modeled)"},{"year":2004,"demVoteShare":45.4,"repVoteShare":54.6,"demMarginPct":-9.25,"ciLower":-16.11,"ciUpper":-4.46,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"R+9 (Modeled)"},{"year":2000,"demVoteShare":42.9,"repVoteShare":57.1,"demMarginPct":-14.14,"ciLower":-17.13,"ciUpper":-10.13,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"R+14 (Modeled)"}],"politicsSummary":{"latestYear":2024,"latestMarginPct":-14.86,"ciLower":-20.66,"ciUpper":-11.55,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"R+15 (Modeled)"},"related":[{"slug":"latin_american_indian","name":"Latin American Indian","href":"/ancestry/latin_american_indian","relationship":"Same family","releaseLabel":"EXPERIMENTAL","indexStatus":"noindex","confidenceLabel":"Modeled","shareOfPopulationPct":0.25,"shareOfAdherentsPct":null},{"slug":"navajo","name":"Navajo","href":"/ancestry/navajo","relationship":"Same family","releaseLabel":"EXPERIMENTAL","indexStatus":"noindex","confidenceLabel":"Modeled","shareOfPopulationPct":0.09,"shareOfAdherentsPct":null},{"slug":"alaska_native","name":"Alaska Native","href":"/ancestry/alaska_native","relationship":"Same family","releaseLabel":"EXPERIMENTAL","indexStatus":"noindex","confidenceLabel":"Modeled","shareOfPopulationPct":0.03,"shareOfAdherentsPct":null},{"slug":"lumbee","name":"Lumbee","href":"/ancestry/lumbee","relationship":"Same family","releaseLabel":"EXPERIMENTAL","indexStatus":"noindex","confidenceLabel":"Estimated range","shareOfPopulationPct":0.02,"shareOfAdherentsPct":null}],"provenance":["Footprint source: ACS 2024 ancestry fields from demographics_ancestry.","Politics source window: presidential model output spanning 2000 through 2024 from the latest completed ancestry_vote_estimates run.","Release policy: public-release dossiers are indexed; experimental dossiers remain labeled and excluded from search indexing.","Interpretation: modeled 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