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presidential margin for each county, computed as (Dem - Rep) / total votes * 100.","Modeled baseline is the latest published ancestry-model national Democratic margin for this group.","Residual = county actual margin minus the modeled baseline; rows rank by absolute residual with footprint share as the tiebreaker.","This module describes modeled geography versus county election results, not individual behavior."],"timeline":[{"year":2024,"demVoteShare":53.5,"repVoteShare":46.5,"demMarginPct":7.07,"ciLower":3.52,"ciUpper":9.31,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"LOW","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+4 to D+9 (Estimated range)"},{"year":2020,"demVoteShare":56.8,"repVoteShare":43.2,"demMarginPct":13.56,"ciLower":7.93,"ciUpper":16.85,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"LOW","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+8 to D+17 (Estimated 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(Estimated range)"},{"year":2000,"demVoteShare":53.8,"repVoteShare":46.2,"demMarginPct":7.52,"ciLower":0,"ciUpper":12.73,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"LOW","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+0 to D+13 (Estimated range)"}],"politicsSummary":{"latestYear":2024,"latestMarginPct":7.07,"ciLower":3.52,"ciUpper":9.31,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"LOW","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+4 to D+9 (Estimated range)"},"related":[{"slug":"dutch","name":"Dutch","href":"/ancestry/dutch","relationship":"Same family","releaseLabel":"ELIGIBLE","indexStatus":"index","confidenceLabel":"High confidence","shareOfPopulationPct":0.92,"shareOfAdherentsPct":null},{"slug":"greek","name":"Greek","href":"/ancestry/greek","relationship":"Same family","releaseLabel":"ELIGIBLE","indexStatus":"index","confidenceLabel":"High 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