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presidential margin for each county, computed as (Dem - Rep) / total votes * 100.","Modeled baseline is the latest published ancestry-model national Democratic margin for this group.","Residual = county actual margin minus the modeled baseline; rows rank by absolute residual with footprint share as the tiebreaker.","This module describes modeled geography versus county election results, not individual behavior."],"timeline":[{"year":2024,"demVoteShare":52.4,"repVoteShare":47.6,"demMarginPct":4.82,"ciLower":-0.81,"ciUpper":8.01,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"HIGH","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+5 (High confidence)"},{"year":2020,"demVoteShare":55.1,"repVoteShare":45,"demMarginPct":10.1,"ciLower":3.51,"ciUpper":13.73,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+10 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