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behavior."],"timeline":[{"year":2024,"demVoteShare":57.6,"repVoteShare":42.4,"demMarginPct":15.24,"ciLower":7.88,"ciUpper":19.72,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+15 (Modeled)"},{"year":2020,"demVoteShare":60.8,"repVoteShare":39.2,"demMarginPct":21.51,"ciLower":12.46,"ciUpper":27.12,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+22 (Modeled)"},{"year":2016,"demVoteShare":59.4,"repVoteShare":40.6,"demMarginPct":18.76,"ciLower":7.77,"ciUpper":25.72,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+19 (Modeled)"},{"year":2012,"demVoteShare":57.7,"repVoteShare":42.3,"demMarginPct":15.44,"ciLower":7.76,"ciUpper":19.65,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+15 (Modeled)"},{"year":2008,"demVoteShare":59.1,"repVoteShare":40.9,"demMarginPct":18.29,"ciLower":11.89,"ciUpper":21.72,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+18 (Modeled)"},{"year":2004,"demVoteShare":53.5,"repVoteShare":46.5,"demMarginPct":6.97,"ciLower":0.52,"ciUpper":10.44,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+7 (Modeled)"},{"year":2000,"demVoteShare":54,"repVoteShare":46,"demMarginPct":8.04,"ciLower":0.88,"ciUpper":11.87,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+8 (Modeled)"}],"politicsSummary":{"latestYear":2024,"latestMarginPct":15.24,"ciLower":7.88,"ciUpper":19.72,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+15 (Modeled)"},"related":[{"slug":"lebanese","name":"Lebanese","href":"/ancestry/lebanese","relationship":"Same family","releaseLabel":"ELIGIBLE","indexStatus":"index","confidenceLabel":"Modeled","shareOfPopulationPct":0.18,"shareOfAdherentsPct":null},{"slug":"arab","name":"Arab","href":"/ancestry/arab","relationship":"Same family","releaseLabel":"ELIGIBLE","indexStatus":"index","confidenceLabel":"Modeled","shareOfPopulationPct":0.06,"shareOfAdherentsPct":null},{"slug":"armenian","name":"Armenian","href":"/ancestry/armenian","relationship":"Same family","releaseLabel":"EXPERIMENTAL","indexStatus":"noindex","confidenceLabel":"Estimated range","shareOfPopulationPct":0.14,"shareOfAdherentsPct":null},{"slug":"egyptian","name":"Egyptian","href":"/ancestry/egyptian","relationship":"Same family","releaseLabel":"EXPERIMENTAL","indexStatus":"noindex","confidenceLabel":"Modeled","shareOfPopulationPct":0.1,"shareOfAdherentsPct":null}],"provenance":["Footprint source: ACS 2024 ancestry fields from demographics_ancestry.","Politics source window: presidential model output spanning 2000 through 2024 from the latest completed ancestry_vote_estimates run.","Release policy: public-release dossiers are indexed; experimental dossiers remain labeled and excluded from search indexing.","Interpretation: modeled political geography, not observed individual vote behavior."],"methodology":["Ancestry footprint metrics use ACS 2024 source columns mapped from the canonical ancestry taxonomy.","Public geography tables rank states and counties by share of total population reporting the ancestry.","State and national ancestry shares are weighted from county populations whenever a direct aggregate row is unavailable.","Political timelines use the latest completed ancestry model run and surface model version plus confidence labels directly.","Indexed public-release dossiers remain search-visible; experimental dossiers stay public in the atlas but noindex until promoted.","These pages describe 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