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2024 presidential margin for each county, computed as (Dem - Rep) / total votes * 100.","Modeled baseline is the latest published ancestry-model national Democratic margin for this group.","Residual = county actual margin minus the modeled baseline; rows rank by absolute residual with footprint share as the tiebreaker.","This module describes modeled geography versus county election results, not individual behavior."],"timeline":[{"year":2024,"demVoteShare":52,"repVoteShare":48,"demMarginPct":4.04,"ciLower":-1.18,"ciUpper":6.82,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"HIGH","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+4 (High confidence)"},{"year":2020,"demVoteShare":54.9,"repVoteShare":45.1,"demMarginPct":9.73,"ciLower":3.1,"ciUpper":13.08,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"HIGH","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+10 (High 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