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modeled baseline; rows rank by absolute residual with footprint share as the tiebreaker.","This module describes modeled geography versus county election results, not individual behavior."],"timeline":[{"year":2024,"demVoteShare":58,"repVoteShare":42,"demMarginPct":16.06,"ciLower":8.5,"ciUpper":20.14,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"LOW","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+9 to D+20 (Estimated range)"},{"year":2020,"demVoteShare":61.4,"repVoteShare":38.6,"demMarginPct":22.71,"ciLower":13.45,"ciUpper":27.83,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"LOW","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+13 to D+28 (Estimated range)"},{"year":2016,"demVoteShare":59.9,"repVoteShare":40.1,"demMarginPct":19.77,"ciLower":9.18,"ciUpper":25.59,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"LOW","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+9 to D+26 (Estimated range)"},{"year":2012,"demVoteShare":59.4,"repVoteShare":40.6,"demMarginPct":18.8,"ciLower":9.66,"ciUpper":23.98,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+19 (Modeled)"},{"year":2008,"demVoteShare":60.4,"repVoteShare":39.6,"demMarginPct":20.73,"ciLower":13.18,"ciUpper":24.95,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"LOW","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+13 to D+25 (Estimated range)"},{"year":2004,"demVoteShare":54.6,"repVoteShare":45.4,"demMarginPct":9.11,"ciLower":1.22,"ciUpper":13.76,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"LOW","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+1 to D+14 (Estimated range)"},{"year":2000,"demVoteShare":55.3,"repVoteShare":44.7,"demMarginPct":10.62,"ciLower":2.01,"ciUpper":16.2,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+11 (Modeled)"}],"politicsSummary":{"latestYear":2024,"latestMarginPct":16.06,"ciLower":8.5,"ciUpper":20.14,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"LOW","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+9 to D+20 (Estimated range)"},"related":[{"slug":"subsaharan_african","name":"Subsaharan African","href":"/ancestry/subsaharan_african","relationship":"Same family","releaseLabel":"ELIGIBLE","indexStatus":"index","confidenceLabel":"High confidence","shareOfPopulationPct":0.51,"shareOfAdherentsPct":null},{"slug":"jamaican","name":"Jamaican","href":"/ancestry/jamaican","relationship":"Same family","releaseLabel":"ELIGIBLE","indexStatus":"index","confidenceLabel":"Modeled","shareOfPopulationPct":0.36,"shareOfAdherentsPct":null},{"slug":"haitian","name":"Haitian","href":"/ancestry/haitian","relationship":"Same 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