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presidential margin for each county, computed as (Dem - Rep) / total votes * 100.","Modeled baseline is the latest published ancestry-model national Democratic margin for this group.","Residual = county actual margin minus the modeled baseline; rows rank by absolute residual with footprint share as the tiebreaker.","This module describes modeled geography versus county election results, not individual behavior."],"timeline":[{"year":2024,"demVoteShare":54.8,"repVoteShare":45.2,"demMarginPct":9.51,"ciLower":5.16,"ciUpper":12.05,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+10 (Modeled)"},{"year":2020,"demVoteShare":58.1,"repVoteShare":42,"demMarginPct":16.1,"ciLower":9.86,"ciUpper":19.22,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+16 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