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modeled baseline; rows rank by absolute residual with footprint share as the tiebreaker.","This module describes modeled geography versus county election results, not individual behavior."],"timeline":[{"year":2024,"demVoteShare":55.7,"repVoteShare":44.3,"demMarginPct":11.49,"ciLower":4.2,"ciUpper":15.19,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+11 (Modeled)"},{"year":2020,"demVoteShare":59.9,"repVoteShare":40.1,"demMarginPct":19.79,"ciLower":9.03,"ciUpper":26.39,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"LOW","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+9 to D+26 (Estimated range)"},{"year":2016,"demVoteShare":59.4,"repVoteShare":40.6,"demMarginPct":18.88,"ciLower":4.96,"ciUpper":27.47,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+19 (Modeled)"},{"year":2012,"demVoteShare":59.2,"repVoteShare":40.8,"demMarginPct":18.47,"ciLower":6,"ciUpper":27.46,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+18 (Modeled)"},{"year":2008,"demVoteShare":60.1,"repVoteShare":39.9,"demMarginPct":20.13,"ciLower":10.06,"ciUpper":27.03,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"LOW","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+10 to D+27 (Estimated range)"},{"year":2004,"demVoteShare":54.8,"repVoteShare":45.2,"demMarginPct":9.55,"ciLower":-1.44,"ciUpper":17.75,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"LOW","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"R+1 to D+18 (Estimated range)"},{"year":2000,"demVoteShare":56.4,"repVoteShare":43.6,"demMarginPct":12.76,"ciLower":-0.41,"ciUpper":23.43,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+13 (Modeled)"}],"politicsSummary":{"latestYear":2024,"latestMarginPct":11.49,"ciLower":4.2,"ciUpper":15.19,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+11 (Modeled)"},"related":[{"slug":"spaniard","name":"Spaniard","href":"/ancestry/spaniard","relationship":"Same family","releaseLabel":"ELIGIBLE","indexStatus":"index","confidenceLabel":"High confidence","shareOfPopulationPct":0.3,"shareOfAdherentsPct":null},{"slug":"salvadoran","name":"Salvadoran","href":"/ancestry/salvadoran","relationship":"Same family","releaseLabel":"EXPERIMENTAL","indexStatus":"noindex","confidenceLabel":"Modeled","shareOfPopulationPct":0.77,"shareOfAdherentsPct":null},{"slug":"dominican","name":"Dominican","href":"/ancestry/dominican","relationship":"Same 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