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presidential margin for each county, computed as (Dem - Rep) / total votes * 100.","Modeled baseline is the latest published ancestry-model national Democratic margin for this group.","Residual = county actual margin minus the modeled baseline; rows rank by absolute residual with footprint share as the tiebreaker.","This module describes modeled geography versus county election results, not individual behavior."],"timeline":[{"year":2024,"demVoteShare":59.1,"repVoteShare":40.9,"demMarginPct":18.24,"ciLower":8.05,"ciUpper":25.36,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+18 (Modeled)"},{"year":2020,"demVoteShare":62.5,"repVoteShare":37.5,"demMarginPct":24.99,"ciLower":12.75,"ciUpper":33.65,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+25 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